AMC Foolishness Comes At A Dear Cost

zerohedge2021-08-04

“For one thing, in a world of free money, there’s almost no penalty for being a numbskull. And no reward for prudence. You run your business at a loss? No problem. Just borrow whatever you need.” -...

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精彩评论

Kueh
2021-08-06
Kueh
Why come and care about our money now? Trying to give financial advise here. Are we affecting their earnings? The whole articles only shows hypocrisy.
- firefirefire:
  they want you to put your money with them.. this is their turf. dumb money has no place here that's what they believe in
Kueh
2021-08-06
Kueh
Lol whats the technical analysis for. Why don't they share the short interest and dark pool trade. They nv care about us losing money before, why bother so much now? Is it their money are being affected now?
trashills
2021-08-05
trashills
Type so long for what ah.
guzmanoj
2021-08-05
guzmanoj
TL;DR: Buy and Hodl.
Toh1977
2021-08-05
Toh1977
Whatever hedgie!
kareayam
2021-08-05
kareayam
They run out of story to tell

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And no reward for prudence. You run your business at a loss? No problem. Just borrow whatever you need.”\n-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/amc-foolishness-comes-dear-cost?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AMC","symbol_name":"AMC院线","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/amc-foolishness-comes-dear-cost?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","article_id":"1184393508","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184393508","pubTimestamp":1628089797,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1583725640930","name":"Zerohedge"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"“For one thing, in a world of free money, there’s almost no penalty for being a numbskull. And no re","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zerohedge.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"translate_title":"AMC的愚蠢付出了高昂的代价","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9},"content_text":"“For one thing, in a world of free money, there’s almost no penalty for being a numbskull. And no reward for prudence. You run your business at a loss? No problem. Just borrow whatever you need.”\n-Bill Bonner\n\nIn Undermining Capitalism with Unreal Values and Crass Distortion we discuss how recent extreme monetary policy measure undermine capitalism. The article highlights how yield hungry speculators are piling into junk-rated debt despite the fact they all but guaranteed to lose purchasing power.\nOur gripe goes well beyond the mispricing of financial markets. Its more insidious. Warped market values reduce the productive output of the economy, and therefore impair wealth and income equality. Misallocated capital is inflating the value of meme stocks, such as the near-bankrupt AMC movie chain, and draining resources from productive sectors of the economy.\nBad News Is Not Good News\nThe Wall Street Journal recently published- Explaining ‘Bad News for the Economy Is Good News for the Stock Market’.\nWe can sum it up in one sentence: bad economic news is good news for share prices because it ensures the Fed will provide stimulus for longer.\nIn a robust economy, with the promotion of productivity as its centerpiece, investors should greatly favor good economic news. Conversely, in a market fueled by excessive speculation, bad news and the accompanying liquidity from the Fed trump economic reality.\nThe juxtaposition of their preferences define the type of market the Fed is fostering.\nMarch Of The Zombies\nIn properly functioning markets investors aim to buy assets with promising growth potential. Further, they should generally shun investments with limited or no growth potential. Such a capitalistic process allows new companies with productive ideas to raise capital. At the same time, it limits capital flows to companies with unproductive assets and little potential.\nThis dynamic ensures productivity growth. We can think of the self-serving process as capitalistic Darwinism, or as well call it, the Virtuous Cycle.\nWhen a central bank recklessly manipulates interest rates, the process fails. In such circumstances capital tends to gravitate toward speculative investments. The fittest, or those offering the economy the most productive benefits, do not receive the lions share of capital. Quite often, so-called zombie companies take capital from them.\nZombies are companies which were bailed out and/or cannot meet their debt payments without issuing more debt. Such companies not only stay alive but often thrive when rates are too low and speculation runs rampant.\nMost zombie companies do not offer promising growth or innovation. Instead, they prey on investors with the allure of higher stock prices.\nThe graph below shows the strong correlation between the number of zombie companies and the level of real yields.\n\nThe next graph shows zombie company stocks returned nearly 3x the S&P 500 since January 2020. Not bad, considering the severe recession severely hampered many of their earnings.\nAlong the same lines, the Goldman Sachs non-profitable Technology Index, which is not 100% zombie companies, but includes many, has killed it, for lack of a better word.\n\nAMC- The Walking Dead\nTo better understand zombie corporations, lets dissect a living and thriving zombie.\nAMC Entertainment Holdings, AMC, is America’s largest movie theater chain. They have been around for 101 years.\nLet’s compare the quantitative definition of a zombie and see how AMC stacks up.\n\nIncome is not sufficient to meet debt payments. As shown below, AMC’s income exceeded its interest expense only once in the last 10 years.\n\n\n\nAn Altman score of less than 1.8 suggests a company might be heading toward bankruptcy. This score uses five common business ratios to help predict bankruptcy odds. As shown, AMC’s Altman Z-score has not been close to 1.8 in the last five years.\n\nAMC easily qualifies as a zombie.\nPandemic Effects\nAs shown above AMC was a walking zombie before the pandemic. Not surprisingly, AMC struggled through the pandemic. Its revenues have shrunk to less than 10% of their pre-pandemic levels.\nMore concerning, despite vaccinations, movie goers are not returning to the movies as they were. While there remains apprehension about going to theaters, AMC is also a victim of streaming. During the pandemic, services like Netflix, HBO, Hulu and others became a more viable movie watching option. To add insult to injury most movies are now simultaneously introduced at the theater and via home streaming services.\nBased on data from The Numbers, the situation is dire for movie theaters. For example, the current hit Black Widow’s has brought in about $167 million in box office revenue. In 2019, for comparison, Avengers: Endgame hit $357 million in its best weekend.\nThe graph below shows how movie ticket sales are only slowly rebounding.\nAMC Is Not Dead\nWhile we paint a grim picture of AMC, it is not dead. The movie producers need the theaters and will keep them alive. This is evident in their support for AMC and other theaters. For example, AMC now receives some of the streaming profits from movie studios.\nPer CNBC- “What we learned during the pandemic is that it is not easy to replace all that lost theatrical window revenue,” said Eric Handler, media and entertainment analyst at MKM Partners. “That feeds a lot of downstream revenue opportunities. There will be changes to the model, but I still think theatrical is something that will remain.”\nFrom a macroeconomic perspective, we are irrelevant whether AMC survives or goes bankrupt. What we are concerned about is how much capital is being misallocated to AMC.\nGross Misallocation\nThe graph below shows that AMC’s market cap or valuation has recently fallen from $25 billion to $18 billion. Currently, at $18 billion its market cap is about six times its pre-pandemic level.\nGiven the pandemic related losses and new habits of movie viewers, should the market cap be higher than it was in prior years? NO! It doesn’t matter what we think. AMC has become a popular meme stock and investors seem willing to use their precious capital to chase it well above prior valuations.\nSpeculators do not consider AMC’s balance sheet, income statement, or prospects. Instead, they solely focus on whether it will go up or not.\nWhat if the $18 billion of capital was instead allocated toward something productive? Imagine if AMC investors focused on cancer research, space exploration, nano technologies, or other productive ventures. Now consider it’s not just AMC. Zombies are all over the place and sucking up capital that could be used to more productive means.\nSummary\nThe Fed does not directly promote AMC, yet its actions create an environment that allows AMC shares to sop up precious capital despite uncompelling valuations. This capital is therefore not available for more productive investments.\nIt may be fun watching and/or trading zombie companies, but the cost of such entertainment is more costly than most people grasp.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":899203100,"gmtCreate":1628184976900,"gmtModify":1631888662313,"author":{"id":"3583188007531916","authorId":"3583188007531916","name":"Kueh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f52cc73c74912c3633f1c873aa2f218","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Why come and care about our money now? Trying to give financial advise here. Are we affecting their earnings?&nbsp;The whole articles only shows hypocrisy.&nbsp;","listText":"Why come and care about our money now? Trying to give financial advise here. Are we affecting their earnings?&nbsp;The whole articles only shows hypocrisy.&nbsp;","text":"Why come and care about our money now? Trying to give financial advise here. Are we affecting their earnings? The whole articles only shows hypocrisy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899203100","repostId":1184393508,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5441139,"gmtCreate":1628209564927,"gmtModify":1631888662314,"authorId":3570742778586711,"author":{"id":3570742778586711,"authorId":3570742778586711,"name":"firefirefire","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04f323294e537812b906a523831e3c8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":899203100,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"they want you to put your money with them.. this is their turf. dumb money has no place here that's what they believe <u>in</u>","text":"they want you to put your money with them.. this is their turf. dumb money has no place here that's what they believe <u>in</u>","html":"they want you to put your money with them.. this is their turf. dumb money has no place here that's what they believe <u>in</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899200891,"gmtCreate":1628184585913,"gmtModify":1631888662317,"author":{"id":"3583188007531916","authorId":"3583188007531916","name":"Kueh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f52cc73c74912c3633f1c873aa2f218","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Lol whats the technical analysis for. Why don't they share the short interest and dark pool trade. They nv care about us losing money before, why bother so much now? Is it their money are being affected now?","listText":"Lol whats the technical analysis for. Why don't they share the short interest and dark pool trade. They nv care about us losing money before, why bother so much now? Is it their money are being affected now?","text":"Lol whats the technical analysis for. Why don't they share the short interest and dark pool trade. They nv care about us losing money before, why bother so much now? Is it their money are being affected now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899200891","repostId":1184393508,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899687975,"gmtCreate":1628178498197,"gmtModify":1631888877134,"author":{"id":"3582015805177780","authorId":"3582015805177780","name":"trashills","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/255e9e32a1a6ba174d328b7d3fcfeb8c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Type so long for what ah.&nbsp;","listText":"Type so long for what ah.&nbsp;","text":"Type so long for what ah.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899687975","repostId":1184393508,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899619089,"gmtCreate":1628177310441,"gmtModify":1628214410006,"author":{"id":"3581803374036165","authorId":"3581803374036165","name":"guzmanoj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e6ed6258ff46453884fdd7d942cdfaa","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"TL;DR: Buy and Hodl.","listText":"TL;DR: Buy and Hodl.","text":"TL;DR: Buy and Hodl.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899619089","repostId":1184393508,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899610775,"gmtCreate":1628177309297,"gmtModify":1633752873430,"author":{"id":"3578967335466364","authorId":"3578967335466364","name":"Toh1977","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Whatever hedgie!","listText":"Whatever hedgie!","text":"Whatever hedgie!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899610775","repostId":1184393508,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":899693303,"gmtCreate":1628176450502,"gmtModify":1631888803255,"author":{"id":"3574924540403487","authorId":"3574924540403487","name":"kareayam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c77978f4b287e714563b2757b7a227","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"They run out of story to tell","listText":"They run out of story to tell","text":"They run out of story to tell","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899693303","repostId":1184393508,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":308,"commentSize":59,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1184393508"}