“像暴风雨一样到来”的美国通胀或危及全球经济

央视网2021-10-05

撰稿丨王全文杨卓英近期，美国的通货膨胀愈发严重，严重到此前一直坚称“高通胀只是暂时性”的美联储也不得不改口。专家认为，急剧恶化的美国通胀，不仅会拖累世界经济复苏进程，甚至可能将世界经济带入高风险周期。 △当地时间10月4日，纽约股市三大股指显著下跌。美国通胀涨幅创30年来纪录面对新冠肺炎疫情，美国是“全球第一抗疫失败国”，抗疫不力给美国供应链、劳动力市场带来的一系列负面影响已到了令人吃惊...

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精彩评论

CKWAI
2021-10-06
CKWAI
来，回复和点赞，谢谢
- CKWAI:
  谢谢
EricBong
2021-10-06
EricBong
够力了
钱包君你要振作起来
2021-10-06
钱包君你要振作起来
如何是好
cgedward
2021-10-06
cgedward
谢谢分享
Tummy
2021-10-06
Tummy
赞
- Tummy:
  赞👍
Tome
2021-10-06
Tome
赞👍

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href=http://m.news.cctv.com/2021/10/05/ARTIGRl6IAOKLWIfdCMXCmus211005.shtml><strong>央视网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>撰稿丨王全文  杨卓英\n近期，美国的通货膨胀愈发严重，严重到此前一直坚称“高通胀只是暂时性”的美联储也不得不改口。专家认为，急剧恶化的美国通胀，不仅会拖累世界经济复苏进程，甚至可能将世界经济带入高风险周期。\n△当地时间10月4日，纽约股市三大股指显著下跌。\n美国通胀涨幅创30年来纪录\n面对新冠肺炎疫情，美国是“全球第一抗疫失败国”，抗疫不力给美国供应链、劳动力市场带来的一系列负面影响已到了令人吃惊...</p>\n\n<a 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杨卓英\n近期，美国的通货膨胀愈发严重，严重到此前一直坚称“高通胀只是暂时性”的美联储也不得不改口。专家认为，急剧恶化的美国通胀，不仅会拖累世界经济复苏进程，甚至可能将世界经济带入高风险周期。\n△当地时间10月4日，纽约股市三大股指显著下跌。\n美国通胀涨幅创30年来纪录\n面对新冠肺炎疫情，美国是“全球第一抗疫失败国”，抗疫不力给美国供应链、劳动力市场带来的一系列负面影响已到了令人吃惊的地步。\n美国商务部发布的最新数据显示，美国8月的能源价格暴涨24.9%，当月美国的通胀率为4.3%，若不含食品或能源价格，8月的通胀率为3.6%。这远高于美联储2%的年度通胀目标。\n据合众国际社报道，供应链中断和需求强劲，导致美国8月出现30年来最大通胀涨幅。\n△合众国际社报道截图\n美国很多知名快餐连锁企业面临着原材料供应短缺的严重问题，肯德基“无鸡可炸”，麦当劳(243.08,0.00,0.00%)、星巴克(111.46,0.00,0.00%)的很多食品被接连下架。\n△美国“商业内幕”网站报道：由于供应链短缺，肯德基停止投放电视广告。\n美联储主席鲍威尔此前一直认为高通胀只是暂时的，但他上周坦言，通胀压力保持在高位的时间比美联储官员预期的要长。\n鲍威尔：“通胀正在上升，在放缓之前，未来几个月可能都会保持这样的上升状态。随着经济继续重新开放，我们看到商品价格面临上行压力，特别是由于某些行业的供应短缺。这些影响比预期的更大，持续时间更长。供应短缺、招聘困难和其他制约因素的影响可能再次被证明比预期更大、更持久，从而给通胀带来上行风险。”\n△9月28日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席国会听证会。（图自视觉中国）\n据美国媒体报道，鲍威尔还表示，由于供应链短缺，美国的通货膨胀可能会持续到明年。他表示，供应链问题可能会变得更糟，影响会有多大以及具体会持续多久还不得而知。\n美国的通胀“像暴风雨一样到来”\n通货膨胀影响到美国民众生活衣食住行的方方面面。\n据美国媒体报道，目前，大量商品的售价已上升超过10%，能源产品涨幅也极大，这导致汽车燃油价格大涨。\n越来越多的美国消费者开始囤积各种生活必需品和食物，卫生纸和瓶装水等生活物品被扫空货架。\n\n美国温斯洛普资本管理公司金融分析师亚当·库恩斯：“我认为目前消费者面临的障碍首先是供应链。虽然消费者现在可能愿意去花更多的钱，但问题是，他们是否真的有产品可以购买？这将是第四季度消费者支出的最大障碍。这不仅仅是经济上的购买力问题，而是消费者是否真能找到他们想要的产品的问题。我们担心的另一件事是仍然有很多美国人失业。”\n路透社近日报道，美国8月消费者支出增加，这强化了人们的预期——随着新冠肺炎疫情的持续蔓延，第三季度经济增长放缓。\n△路透社网站10月2日报道：美国消费者支出增加，通货膨胀侵蚀家庭购买力。\n而在连续下调对美国GDP增长的相关预期后，高盛(374.15,0.00,0.00%)最近又上调了对美国核心个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）的预期。这一指数，是衡量美国通胀的重要指标。有分析认为，美国经济或将迎来“滞涨”。\n美国商务部表示，据专家分析，严重的运输积压、供应链混乱、关键行业的人员缺失以及新冠肺炎疫情等原因，都对消费者价格指数施加了上行压力。\n中国现代国际关系研究院研究员陈凤英接受环球资讯专访时表示，美国的通胀“像暴风雨一样到来”，不仅是流动性宽松的问题，还有结构性的问题。\n\n陈凤英：“美国通胀背后的流动性是一个结构性问题，宏观政策依然可以推行量化宽松。美联储主席鲍威尔改口了，过去说是暂时的，但是他现在认为可能要持续到明年。量化宽松政策如果不收紧，流动性就是宽松的。人们兜里有钱，就要去消费，供给和需求出了问题，结构性的问题更明显。所以，美国这次的通胀真的像暴风雨一样地来了。”\n全球通胀或有失控危险\n分析人士认为，为应对受新冠肺炎疫情冲击的经济，欧美发达经济体不断超发货币。初期效果似乎不错，但货币超发的副作用也愈发明显，当前正以能源危机的形式倒逼全球经济，有将全球经济再次拖向危机的风险。\n△美元  （图自视觉中国）\n中国现代国际关系研究院研究员陈凤英认为，美国通胀高企的最大外溢风险是将导致世界金融市场的不稳定、汇率的不稳定、资本流动的不稳定，对全球尤其是发展中国家和新兴市场产生冲击。\n中国国际问题研究院研究员姜跃春接受环球资讯专访时认为，高通胀是发达经济体货币超发的典型表现之一，或将拖累全球经济复苏。\n\n姜跃春：“为了经济的尽快复苏，大多数发达国家都不断向市场投入货币，增加市场的流动性，实际上推升了大宗商品的价格。现在欧美以及其他西方经济体的通胀率显然已经超过2%这一目标，这种状况对经济的负面影响居多。在目前全球经济尚不稳定的状况下，通胀高企会导致各国对经济前景的预期更为悲观。新冠肺炎疫情的不确定性仍在。在这种关键时刻，如何找到控制疫情和复工复产之间的最大公约数，是每个国家都需要解决的现实问题。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":829350269,"gmtCreate":1633476366401,"gmtModify":1633476366583,"author":{"id":"3576460381606543","authorId":"3576460381606543","name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576460381606543","idStr":"3576460381606543"},"htmlText":"来，回复和点赞，谢谢","listText":"来，回复和点赞，谢谢","text":"来，回复和点赞，谢谢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829350269","repostId":1183567292,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6104010,"gmtCreate":1633476374950,"gmtModify":1634721016512,"authorId":3576460381606543,"author":{"id":3576460381606543,"idStr":"3576460381606543","authorId":3576460381606543,"name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":829350269,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"谢谢","text":"谢谢","html":"谢谢"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":829329024,"gmtCreate":1633475845919,"gmtModify":1633475846044,"author":{"id":"3566969517736877","authorId":"3566969517736877","name":"EricBong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fde094766f7e452651736b62882d9cc","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3566969517736877","idStr":"3566969517736877"},"htmlText":"够力了","listText":"够力了","text":"够力了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829329024","repostId":1183567292,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":829303165,"gmtCreate":1633470867503,"gmtModify":1633470867693,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/955f79aaa5980ffddeabfcb6101dac09","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"htmlText":"如何是好","listText":"如何是好","text":"如何是好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829303165","repostId":1183567292,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":829300998,"gmtCreate":1633470318733,"gmtModify":1633470362153,"author":{"id":"4087623854818070","authorId":"4087623854818070","name":"cgedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91cda4bb53f0031aad603cdfaf99aa3e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4087623854818070","idStr":"4087623854818070"},"htmlText":"谢谢分享","listText":"谢谢分享","text":"谢谢分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829300998","repostId":1183567292,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":829974216,"gmtCreate":1633470004593,"gmtModify":1633470004806,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Tummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2633c0a0e18cf8c352931eb48340a8fe","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"htmlText":"赞","listText":"赞","text":"赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829974216","repostId":1183567292,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6131564,"gmtCreate":1633680848347,"gmtModify":1634718720525,"authorId":3564108727353086,"author":{"id":3564108727353086,"idStr":"3564108727353086","authorId":3564108727353086,"name":"Tummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2633c0a0e18cf8c352931eb48340a8fe","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":829974216,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"赞👍","text":"赞👍","html":"赞👍"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":829972119,"gmtCreate":1633469702143,"gmtModify":1633469738285,"author":{"id":"3570833668911971","authorId":"3570833668911971","name":"Tome","avatar":"ht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