Palantir: A Rebound May Be In Order With Potentially Stronger-Than-Expected Earnings Ahead

Seeking Alpha2021-12-30

SummaryPalantir has underperformed the broader market this year with declines of more than 20% while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have both rallied close to 30%.The stock's latest plummet was triggered ...

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迷茫的渔夫
2021-12-30
迷茫的渔夫
滚
DerrickDoge
2021-12-30
DerrickDoge
Good
stardice
2021-12-30
stardice
Please help like and comment. Thanks
stardice
2021-12-30
stardice
Please help like and comment
Gibbie
2021-12-30
Gibbie
Palantir go

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In the first few months that followed its debut on the NYSE last September, the stock had more than tripled in value before the February tech stock selloff wiped out more than one-third of said gains. The stock has largely remained in the sub-$30 level since until Palantir released weaker than expected third quarter results. Signs of slowing revenue growth from the government segment had sent the stock towards the low-$20s, while recent macro headwinds ranging from rising inflation to the resurgence of the Omicron coronavirus variant have led further declines to the sub-$20 level.However, revenue growth from Palantir's commercial segment remains robust and should not be overlooked. Businesses are becoming increasingly digital, generating vast troves of data that will need to be integrated, processed and analyzed to drive key decision-making processes. And this trend will continue to propel commercial demand for Palantir's enterprise software solutions. New strategies and modular offerings like the \"Foundry for Builders\" subscription and \"Carbon Emissions Management\" tool will also encourage further mass market adoption in the long-run and underpin the segment's continued growth.Meanwhile, a rebound in government segment revenues appears to be in order this quarter. The recent slew of contract wins and extensions is a testament to the effectiveness of Palantir's software solutions and continued demand from the public sector.Palantir's software solutions remain a critical function to ensuring the seamless integration of data platforms and improving decision-making in the increasingly digital world. And based on recent deals and partnerships announced, the company's fundamentals are expected to come in stronger than expected this earnings season, indicating further rallies in the new year.Rising Opportunities from the Commercial SectorPalantir's commercial segment revenues have demonstrated robust strong growth momentum in recent quarters. In the first nine months of the year, the segment has generated sales of $450.6 million, representing growth of close to 30% from the prior year. Much of this accelerated growth were generated in the third quarter, with record-setting year-on-year and sequential advances of close to 38% and 21%, respectively. And similar results are expected for the fourth quarter, based on recent multi-year deals forged with reputable names within the private sector:Dewpoint Therapeutics: Palantir will be deploying Foundry at Dewpoint Therapeutics to help researchers gain better understanding of biomolecular condensates, a critical element within cells that help them perform vital functions. Foundry will be used to integrate data generated from experimental results and outcomes into a \"centralized knowledge repository\", enabling researchers with access to a key hub of resources needed to \"identify new compounds and therapeutic approaches\" for challenging disease.Merck: Palantir and Merck(OTCPK:MKGAF)(OTCPK:MKGAY) have introduced the Athinia, a Foundry-powered platform that uses AI to address ongoing supply chain challenges. Athinia will provide a centralized platform where chipmakers and material suppliers can \"share, aggregate and analyze data\". The joint initiative is expected to foster a higher level of supply chain transparency and drive greater operational efficiencies across the value chain.Kinder Morgan: Kinder Morgan(NYSE:KMI)will use Foundry combine data across its U.S.-based gas storage operations that are otherwise segregated. This will enable operators with access to a \"common operating picture\" of the company's consolidated information, ranging from supply to pricing, which will help to better inform their decision-making process.MSP Recovery: The leading Medicare, Medicaid, commercial and secondary payer reimbursement recovery firm will use Foundry to \"connect data both within and between organizations and help unlock connectivity on an unprecedented scale\". The resulting centralized data ecosystem is expected to help break down time and cost inefficiencies within the American healthcare system, and improve the level of care for patients while also ensuring better revenues for both MSP and healthcare providers.The common theme behind Palantir's recent commercial partnerships continues to be Foundry's ability to \"break down data silos\", contextualize information, and enable improved decision-making. This ability will become increasingly invaluable to companies in coming years with accelerated digital transformation. To date,only 4% of companies claim to have a \"highly sophisticated approach to leveraging data\". This leaves a sizable addressable market within the private sector in which Palantir could penetrate. And the company has already deployed various strategic offerings to ensure adequate capitalization of said opportunities ahead.As discussed in our previous coverage, the recent introduction of Foundry for Builders under a subscription-based model is expected to encourage mass market adoption of the software from both multinational corporations with complex data compilations and small Day One start-ups. The recent introduction of modular offerings like \"Carbon Emissions Management\" and \"Anti-Money Laundering / Know Your Client\" solutions will also appeal to the emerging crypto sector, exposing Palantir's commercial offerings to a broader market.Robust Government Demand Driven by Proven ResultsSigns of deceleration in Palantir's government segment revenues during the third quarter had raised alarms on the durability of its growth outlook. Government segment revenues during the third quarter grew by only 34% from the prior year, down from an average of 74% year-on-year growth observed in the three preceding quarters.But Palantir's government contract wins observed so far in the last quarter of the year shows that a rebound may be in order:Army Vantage Program: The U.S. Army has contracted Palantir in 2019 to power the \"Army Vantage\" data analytics platform. Palantir's software is used to \"break down data silos\" and create a centralized operating system where the U.S. Army can mobilize their data to make informed decisions in real-time. The contract was renewed for the second option year in mid-December for $116.3 million.Space System Command (\"SSC\"): The SSC's Cross-Mission Ground & Communications Enterprise (\"ECX\") has awarded Palantir a $43 million contract extension earlier this month. Under the extended arrangement, Palantir will continue to deploy its software to integrate and process data from various sources, and facilitate \"application delivery, in-depth analysis, and data-driven decision-making\" across the ECX and its partners.Capability Drop 2 (\"CD-2\") Program: Palantir announced an $823 million contract win with the U.S. Army's Program Manager for Intelligence Systems and Analytics in October. The Army Intelligence will be leveraging Palantir's Gotham platform to consolidate data from disparate databases, and create a \"data fabric and analytics foundation\" for the CD-2 program, which will be used to enable data modernization and analytic capabilities required for preparing against future threats to national security.National Institutes of Health (\"NIH\"): Palantir has been contracted by the NIH's National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (\"NCATS\") to continue the deployment of its solutions for enabling a central operating system used in collaborative clinical research on COVID-19. The two-year contract has an estimated value of $59.9 million, with an initial task order to be completed in five months valued at $7.9 million. The NCATS has also offered Palantir a separate one-year contract extension for the provision of its software to help facilitate cancer research at the National Cancer Institute. The extension has upped the total contract value from $36 million to $60 million.Data remains the strongest link in aligning U.S. foreign policy with the country's national security goals. This underscores why making sense of data, and using it to drive critical decision-making processes continue to be a top priority for the Defense Department, as well as other agencies within the public sector. The increasing urgency to reconnect the fragmented nature of databases set up across the public sector's sub-departments has been a common theme in Palantir's government contract wins in recent years, including the ones obtained during the fourth quarter as mentioned above. The growing number of contract extensions awarded to Palantir is also a testament to the effectiveness of its software in addressing complex challenges resulting from the government's disparate data sources.Time and again, Palantir has proven to government agencies that while taking advantage of data is a complex process, it has the technological capacity and resources to link and make sense of the vast troves of information without compromising on time and cost-efficiencies. Palantir's most recent new contract win with the U.S. Army for the CD-2 program as mentioned above also foreshadows greater opportunities ahead with the Defense Department. The agency has pivoted towards increasing collaborations with innovation-driven technology partners in recent years to modernize their current \"command and control\" architecture. Their goal to invest more heavily into new technologies like AI is also embedded in the proposed military budget for the coming year. This signals that a greater market of opportunities from the U.S. Department of Defense is coming Palantir's way. Paired with Palantir's proven technological competency in addressing said specific needs of the public sector as validated by recent contract renewals, the company's government segment is well-poised for additional growth ahead.Recap of Financial ProspectsAdjusting our previous forecast for actual third quarter results and recent developments to Palantir's growth outlook based on new contract adds observed in the fourth quarter, we are projecting total revenues of $1.5 billion by the end of the year. The top line is expected to further advance at a compounded annual growth rate (\"CAGR\") of about 16% towards $6.6 billion by 2030. The growth assumptions applied remain consistent with those discussed in our previous analysis, considering Palantir's business model and operating environment has not materially changed. Recent contract wins and renewals also support the viability of management's goal to grow Palantir's revenues by 30% every year for the next five years, indicating that the narrative surrounding its bullish thesis remains intact.Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.Specifically, government segment revenues are forecast at $896.2 million by the end of the year, representing growth of 41.8% from 2020. While deal flows are expected to remain strong within the foreseeable future considering Palantir's proven effectiveness in delivery solutions that can address data challenges within the public sector and increasing defense opportunities allocated towards software and innovative technology, the segment's growth is expected to ultimately normalize towards an average range of 28% to 30% over the next five years. Based on this consideration, our forecast projects government revenues to advance towards $2.5 billion by 2025 and $3.8 billion by 2030, representing growth at a 10-year CAGR of 15.6%.Meanwhile, commercial segment revenue growth is expected to remain robust in coming years. Palantir's continued roll-out of attractive purchase options and modular add-on offerings targeted at specific industry needs are expected to encourage further adoption of Foundry in the long-run. Paired with a growing base of contracted commercial segment revenues, which is currently valued at more than $2 billion with an average duration of four years, our forecast expects Palantir to realize related sales of $630.8 million by the end of the year. And in the coming years, commercial segment revenues are expected to further advance at a 10-year CAGR of 16.1% towards $2.8 billion by 2030, with the bulk of the growth frontloaded in the first half of the decade to reflect accelerating market demand for holistic data compilation and analytical tools like Foundry.Combined with Palantir's projected cost structure, which takes into consideration the highly scalable nature of its software offerings as discussed in our previous coverage, the company is expected to generate narrowing losses of $464.0 million to $117.5 million until 2024. Nominal profits of $141.1 million are projected for 2025, with further growth towards $1.5 billion by 2030.Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.i. Base Case Financial Forecast:Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.ValuationSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.Drawing on the above analysis on Palantir's financial prospects, our 12-month price target is set at $25.45. This represents upside potential of close to 37% based on the last traded share price of $18.58 on December 28th.Our valuation analysis is derived from a discounted cash flow (\"DCF\") analysis over a five-year discrete period in conjunction with the base case financial projections for Palantir as discussed in earlier sections. A WACC of 9.3% is applied to discount Palantir's projected free cash flows over the forecasted period. The valuation assumption applied is consistent with the company's risk profile and capital structure, which is currently debt-free with an ability to generate robust cash flows into the long-run. The analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 110.8x, which is derived based on Palantir's size of operations, current growth initiatives and business outlook relative to its industry peers. This compares to an EV/ETBIDA range of 43.66x to 198.65x observed across guideline public companies within the same industry.i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.We have also used a multiple-based valuation approach to validate our 12-month price target derived using the DCF approach. By applying a forward-looking price-to-sales multiple of 27.7x to projected revenues per share for the next 12 months, the Palantir stock is expected to trade at approximately $25.93, which is in line with our DCF analysis. The multiple is consistent with those observed across Palantir's industry peers, as well as market expectations on the company's near-term valuation based on its current operating environment, business developments and growth trajectory.ii. Price-to-Sales Multiple-Based Valuation:Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.ConclusionAccelerated digitization across enterprises of all sizes and industries, and an increasing urgency to mend the fragmented nature of databases across the public sector will continue to drive tremendous demand for holistic data compilation and analytics solutions like Foundry and Gotham in coming years. The technological effectiveness and scalability of Palantir's products also make them attractive solutions for handling increasingly complex data challenges. Looking ahead, Palantir remains well-poised to capitalize on significant growth opportunities presented by both the public and private sectors, which is expected to soon materialize into promising upsides for the stock.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":692167606,"gmtCreate":1640877472046,"gmtModify":1640878025792,"author":{"id":"3472554652085855","authorId":"3472554652085855","name":"迷茫的渔夫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c2f036787f3efc09b69bb9398532165","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3472554652085855","idStr":"3472554652085855"},"htmlText":"滚","listText":"滚","text":"滚","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692167606","repostId":1183408599,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":692116089,"gmtCreate":1640873435255,"gmtModify":1640874030578,"author":{"id":"3581672061336023","authorId":"3581672061336023","name":"DerrickDoge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7512a6d7a73b844ab9bb490e1cca3cb1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581672061336023","idStr":"3581672061336023"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692116089","repostId":1183408599,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":692130624,"gmtCreate":1640869976575,"gmtModify":1640869977815,"author":{"id":"3569374298664989","authorId":"3569374298664989","name":"stardice","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569374298664989","idStr":"3569374298664989"},"htmlText":"Please help like and comment. 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