Apple: Widening Its Moat

Seeking Alpha2021-11-23

Summary We still must question if Apple has a wide economic moat, but in the last few years the company could definitely widen its moat. Not only did Apple start paying a dividend nine years ago, but...

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精彩评论

LionPanda21
2021-11-23
LionPanda21
Yeah
JLCH
2021-11-23
JLCH
yo
- JLCH:
  yo
Gaga71
2021-11-23
Gaga71
Apple in the big Apple
- SubZero:
  Orange
MHh
2021-11-23
MHh
Apple doesn’t disappoint [Miser]
Jazim
2021-11-23
Jazim
Ok
- Kevin92:
  Like
JunHaoT
2021-11-23
JunHaoT
Apple the best
- Bull_Lion:
  Steve is long gone though. What about the new guy, Tim Cook?
- Kelvink73:
  Yes, Steve is a legend

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In the last five years I covered several small and rather unknown companies, but I also covered the biggest (by market capitalization) and well-known companies in the world like Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Facebook(NASDAQ:FB), Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)or Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). One company I have never written about is the company, that was the most valuable company by market capitalization for quite some time (now surpassed by Microsoft): Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL).\nAnd there is a reason why I did not cover Apple: I always had doubts if Apple really has a wide economic moat around its business. Without any doubt, Apple is a great business and I use many of their products (this article is typed on my MacBook). And Apple has also been a great investment for almost everybody that bought in the past - and those investors that held the stock for 15 years or more got extremely rich. In 2016, even Warren Buffett, who is known to be very skeptic towards technology companies, invested in Apple and increased his stake over time. Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)is holding 887 million shares right now.\nBut in the past, I had my doubts if Apple has a wide economic moat, and this was the reason I skipped Apple. However, I see tendencies of Apple becoming a more and more \"moaty\" business and in the following article, we will take a closer look at the company and the stock.\nBusiness\nI don't think Apple needs any introduction and therefore we are just focusing on some important numbers. Despite seeing some fluctuations over the years, Apple could increase revenue, earnings per share and free cash flow with a solid pace over the last ten years. While revenue and free cash flow increased with a CAGR between 9% and 10%, earnings per share increased even with a CAGR of 15% in the last ten years.\nSource: Author's work based on numbers from Morningstar\nWhen looking at the last annual results, we also see impressive growth rates in fiscal 2021. Total net sales increased from $274,515 million in fiscal 2020 to $365,817 million in fiscal 2021 - reflecting an increase of 33.3% year-over-year. While product sales increased from $220,747 million in fiscal 2020 to $297,392 million in fiscal 2021 (34.7% growth), services sales increased from $53,768 million to $68,425 million (27.3% growth). When looking at the different categories, the iPhone is still responsible for the biggest part of revenue ($191,973 million; 52.5% of total sales). The second-biggest category are now \"Service\" sales ($68,425 million), which account for 18.7% of total revenue.\nOperating income increased from $66,288 million in fiscal 2020 to $108,949 million in fiscal 2021 - an increase of 64.4% and diluted earnings per share increased from $3.28 to $5.61 - an increase of 71.0%. Aside from the numbers, it is also worth pointing out, that revenue was $1.62 billion lower than analysts expected. For the first time since 2017, Apple missed quarterly revenue expectations.\nShift to Services\nWhen trying to answer the question if Apple has a wide economic moat, we might start once again by describing what an economic moat is (and what it is not). A company does not have an economic moat just because it was successful in the past years or decades and could report impressive growth rates.\nAn economic moat is a structural characteristic of the business, that makes it extremely hard to almost impossible for competitors to take market shares away. Apple is generating most of its revenue from products with a rather short product lifecycle and every time the consumer is buying a new smartphone, tablet or laptop the customer has the choice to buy another Apple product or chose the product of a competitor. The question right now is if Apple can \"force\" customers again and again to buy its products.\nWhen looking at the growth rates during the last decade (see section above) in combination with the solid gross margin and operating margin as well as high return on invested capital during the last ten years, we have several strong hints, that Apple might have a wide economic moat.\nSource: Author's work based on numbers from Morningstar\nThe gross margin has been fluctuating a bit, but it was more or less stable around 40% and while the operating margin was rather declining for several years until 2019, it recently improved again. And an average return on invested capital of 29.94% during the last ten years is without any doubt impressive. Additionally, the outperformance of Apple vs. the S&P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY)is another strong hint for a wide economic moat of Apple.\nData by YCharts\nBut the problem remains, that Apple is extremely dependent on its iPhone sales and if the iPhone is suddenly sold less or should become irrelevant by some other product, Apple would face a huge problem. One might argue that customers will choose Apple again and again due to the superiority of the products. But that is not an economic moat as Apple could fail to deliver great products and competitors might come up with better improvements and maybe offer better products even cheaper. And like Apple itself created an existential threat for Nokia Corporation(NYSE:NOK) in 2007, another company could come up with an innovative product replacing the smartphones as we know it.\nSource: Author's work based on Apple's 10-Ks\nIn the last few years however, iPhone sales were decreasing (in relation to total sales), while revenue from services was increasing. In 2018, about 62% of revenue stemmed from iPhone sales - three years later (in 2021) only 52.5% of total sales stemmed from iPhone sales. In the same timeframe, service sales have increased from 15% in 2018 to 18.7% in 2021.\nService sales are including revenue from the app store, Apple music, Apple Pay or Apple TV+ and these sales can be seen as more consistent than iPhone sales as we are dealing with subscription models, and this is leading to more consistent revenue streams. And it might also help iPhone sales to be more consistent. If I have paid for several apps, maybe use Apple Music (although there are many other similar providers to which I can switch) and have stored my data in Apple's cloud, the incentive is much higher to buy an iPhone again to be able to use the services in a similar way.\nThese switching costs are also increasing as Apple is selling more and more additional hardware devices. Sales from \"Wearables, Home and Accessories\" increased from 6.54% of total sales in 2018 to 10.49%. And customers who own not only an iPhone, but also a Mac and Apple Watch or Apple TVs are less likely to switch away from the Apple ecosystem. And the Apple ecosystem is also the key to its (wide) economic moat. The better the ecosystem, the higher the incentives to stay within the ecosystem. Switching costs are getting higher and higher when several services and products are embedded in such a way, that I can use them only in a reasonable way when I keep all these products.\nWarren Buffett is also famous for focusing on businesses, in which he can invest for the long run (several decades) and as he is the one who coined the term \"economic moat\" it should not be surprising that Berkshire Hathaway is focusing on businesses with a wide economic moat. And not only is Apple the biggest position in Berkshire's stock portfolio, but Buffett also spoke quite positive about Apple during the last shareholder meeting. Buffett mentioned the extremely loyal customer base, which might be less price conscious than the customers of rivals. He also pointed out, that Apple plays a huge role in the life of the customers and that people absolutely love Apple products. While this could point towards embeddedness, which is the source of a moat (switching costs), we also must be careful if we are not just describing a trend (which can last for several years, but suddenly also vanish). Owning an iPhone could be like a fashion trend, which is a must-have in one year and out in the next. Of course, the brand name also plays a role and could also be the source of a wide economic moat. I don't want to deny, that people might actually pay a higher price for Apple products and in many rankings (for example Interbrand), Apple is seen as the most valuable brands in the world.\nIn the end, I think Apple's economic moat is getting stronger, but I still have my doubts, if Apple is fitting the description of a wide economic moat business.\nBalance Sheet\nApple is also known for having a great balance sheet with little debt and a lot of cash and cash equivalents. And Apple still has an outstanding balance sheet - however it is not so impressive anymore. On September 25, 2021, Apple had $9,613 million in short-term debt and $109,106 million in long-term debt. Compared to a total shareholder's equity of $63,090 million this is resulting in a D/E ratio of 1.88 and twice the amount of debt than equity can be called rather high. However, when comparing the total debt to the operating income Apple can generate annually ($108,949 million in fiscal 2021), it would take only about one year to repay the total debt - and there is no reason to worry about the company's debt levels.\nBut Apple has not only high debt levels on its balance sheet - the company also has $34,940 million in cash and cash equivalents, $27,699 million in current marketable securities and $127,877 million in non-current marketable securities. And when considering, that about 36% of total assets ($351,002 million) are in huge parts very liquid and \"high-quality\" assets (compared to goodwill for example, which Apple doesn't have any), Apple's balance sheet can be seen as great.\nDividend and Share Buybacks\nAs Apple became more and more a mature company (it is now almost 40 years old and one of the major corporations in the world), it is also not surprising for management to start paying a dividend. When companies are generating high amounts of free cash flow as there are not enough growth opportunities or potential acquisition targets, cash is often distributed to investors via dividends.\nApple is already paying a dividend for nine years now and the company also increased the dividend every single year. We also should point out, that Apple has paid a dividend before: Until 1995, Apple paid a regular dividend, but between 1995 and 2012 no dividend was paid. In the last five years the dividend growth rate was 9.30% annually on average. Right now, Apple is paying a quarterly dividend of $0.22 resulting in an annual dividend of $0.88 and a dividend yield of only 0.58%. When using $5.61 in earnings per share (fiscal 2021), we get a payout ratio of 15.7% and should therefore not be worried about the dividend being sustainable or question the possibility of dividend increases in the years to come.\nData by YCharts\nAlmost at the same time as Apple started paying a quarterly dividend, the company also started using share buybacks as another tool to distribute cash to shareholders. In 2013, the number of outstanding shares peaked and in the last eight years Apple reduced the number of outstanding shares from 26.52 billion to 16.64 billion right now. As a result, Apple reduced the number of outstanding shares with a CAGR of 5.2% and share buybacks contributed a lot to Apple's bottom-line growth in the last few years.\nAnd about six months ago, during the second quarter earnings call, Apple announced:\n\n Given the confidence we have in our business today and into the future, our Board has authorized an additional $90 billion for share repurchases.\n\nIn the third quarter, Apple repurchased about $17.5 billion worth of shares and in the fourth quarter, the company repurchased about $20 billion worth of shares. Therefore, about $52.5 billion are remaining for share repurchases but considering the high amounts of free cash flow Apple is generating every single year (almost $93 billion last year), we can be confident that Apple will continue to repurchase shares with a similar pace in the years to come.\nIntrinsic Value Calculation\nWhen trying to answer the question, if Apple is a good investment right now (or cheap), we can look at the price-earnings ratio. Right now, Apple is trading for 29.32 times earnings, which is one of the highest ratios for Apple in the last ten years. The average P/E ratio for Apple was 17.67 during the last ten years. The picture for the price-free-cash-flow ratio is similar. Right now, Apple is trading for 26.90 times free cash flow, while the 10-year average was 15.36.\nData by YCharts\nAnd when looking at the P/E ratios some other companies are trading for, a ratio in the high 20s seems not so extreme. But we also must keep in mind, how extremely overvalued the market is right now. And we still need to answer the question, why Apple should deserve a much higher P/E ratio now than in the past few years. One could argue that the shift towards service sales and the higher stickiness would justify a higher valuation multiple for Apple. Considering past growth rates (double-digit growth rates), we can also argue, that past valuation multiples might not have been representative of Apple's growth potential. But we also must keep in mind, that we are mostly talking about the last 15 years when talking about the extremely successful company we associate with Apple today.\nMany other companies I covered over the years with a wide economic moat have been successful and highly profitable for much longer timeframes and demonstrated much higher levels of stability and consistency.\nSource: Author's work\nAnd we clearly see growth rates slowing down, but the 10-year CAGR for earnings per share in fiscal 2021 was still 18.94% - an extremely high growth rate, most businesses never achieve.\nWhen using a discount cash flow calculation to determine an intrinsic value for Apple, we can use the free cash flow of the last four quarters ($92,953 million). In order to be fairly valued, Apple has to grow more than 6% annually from now till perpetuity. And when looking at the CAGR in the last ten years as well as the CAGR between 1990 and today (18.38% annual growth on average), which is including the 1990s in which Apple struggled, it seems almost laughable to argue if Apple can achieve 6% growth annually.\nBut we also must keep the scenario in mind, that Apple's iPhone sales might decline, which could create a huge problem - and that risk is most likely the reason why Apple has always been trading at rather low valuation multiples - despite extremely impressive growth rates.\nOne final argument: Since 2013, Apple decreased the number of outstanding shares about 5% annually, which is by itself almost enough to increase the bottom line 6% annually. Of course, Apple will probably generate less free cash flow if iPhone sales should decline, but 6% growth seem achievable.\nConclusion\nWhile I still have my doubts if Apple has a wide economic moat around its business, we are clearly talking about a great business, which will most likely continue to outperform in the years to come. And although Apple is diversifying and creating a business, that is becoming more and more sticky for its customers, I still see the risk of the iPhone and iPad suddenly getting replaced by better and completely new products, which could generate a huge problem for Apple. And although Apple has proven again and again, that it is a visionary company with enormous amounts of cash to spend on R&D and although it is seen as the most innovative company in the world (ranked by Boston Consulting Group), I don't know if the company has the necessary defensibility to protect its revenue stream against some (potential) innovation replacing the iPhone. And without these levels of defensibility, we must question if Apple can be called a wide economic moat company - although the moat is getting stronger from year to year.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":875655351,"gmtCreate":1637648452498,"gmtModify":1637648452633,"author":{"id":"3575157035905942","authorId":"3575157035905942","name":"LionPanda21","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826d9bc0b1bfc9e3145623cf6fcb513e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575157035905942","authorIdStr":"3575157035905942"},"htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875655351","repostId":1183083733,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":875665633,"gmtCreate":1637645020317,"gmtModify":1637645020445,"author":{"id":"3572670964273182","authorId":"3572670964273182","name":"JLCH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37f9208a53c3a3c582fb50de5cde53d4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572670964273182","authorIdStr":"3572670964273182"},"htmlText":"yo","listText":"yo","text":"yo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875665633","repostId":1183083733,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6690121,"gmtCreate":1637645024993,"gmtModify":1637645025072,"authorId":3572670964273182,"author":{"id":3572670964273182,"idStr":"3572670964273182","authorId":3572670964273182,"name":"JLCH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37f9208a53c3a3c582fb50de5cde53d4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":875665633,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yo","text":"yo","html":"yo"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":875662288,"gmtCreate":1637644877147,"gmtModify":1637644877953,"author":{"id":"3579082097230100","authorId":"3579082097230100","name":"Gaga71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02afa88b95dc30f4a60767c18f9e2f39","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579082097230100","authorIdStr":"3579082097230100"},"htmlText":"Apple in the big Apple","listText":"Apple in the big Apple","text":"Apple in the big Apple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875662288","repostId":1183083733,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6690605,"gmtCreate":1637650125710,"gmtModify":1637650125744,"authorId":3570004939267641,"author":{"id":3570004939267641,"idStr":"3570004939267641","authorId":3570004939267641,"name":"SubZero","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8788d52622c753b2631c6aa959de7239","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":875662288,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Orange ","text":"Orange ","html":"Orange 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