Inflation Trader Who Nailed 2021 Call Sees Risk of 7% U.S. CPI

Bloomberg2021-12-24

Semin Soher Power heads Bank of Ireland inflation-trading desk Annual pace of U.S. CPI gains accelerated to 6.8% in November U.S. economic growth looks set to fuel inflation that’s even faster than ...

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2021-12-24
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That’s above the most recent reading of 6.8% for November and higher than the 6.3% median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg for the first part of 2022.\nInflation pressures “are much more growth-based right now” and not simply a result of higher energy prices or a reopening of economies from lockdown measures, she said in an interview with Bloomberg Television Thursday. And she says both markets and central banks are cognizant of that, pointing to the Federal Reserve’s decision to move past using the term “transitory” to describe inflation pressures.\nConcern about inflation has prompted central banks around the world to adopt sterner policies to combat price pressures even as uncertainty around the Covid pandemic has picked up once again. Some have surprised markets with unexpected or larger-than-anticipated interest-rate increases, while the Federal Reserve -- the world’s pre-eminent monetary authority -- this month announced plans to speed its stimulus withdrawal, potentially paving the way for earlier hikes in America too.\nMarkets responded to the Fed’s hawkish pivot by bolstering the amount of tightening they expect, although the magnitude of rate increases they expect over the longer horizon is below the median forecast of Fed officials outlined alongside the most recent policy decision. Traders also appear to be showing some confidence that policy will help keep inflation in check, with so-called breakeven rates -- bond market measures for the outlook that draw on the pricing of CPI-linked debt -- pulling back in recent weeks.\n\nThe five-year breakeven rate on Treasuries is currently around 2.76%. 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