Where Will Lucid Motors Stock Be In 5 Years?

Seeking Alpha2021-11-30

Summary Lucid is the new "range king," and is getting ready for volume production. However, we are unsure over its production capability, and its software edge in autonomous driving. We discuss some ...

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精彩评论

AlvinTham
2021-11-30
AlvinTham
Comment and like pls, thanks!
BearishBull
2021-11-30
BearishBull
If Lucid is able to deliver on their products, they ought to be competing closely with Tesla. Lucid does not seem to have other products to highlight so they would need to be able to produce sufficient units and keep their tech relevant.
- BearishBull:
  I totally agree with you. Tesla has had problems with meeting demand as well. Again, Tesla is a larger company and has more credibility. With this, Lucid will have to be careful with proposed numbers
- PagRobinson:
  I think it's hard for him to surpass Tesla. Tesla has good R & D and production capacity. There are many kinds of products. Lucid doesn't have these.
- DaisyMoore:
  I've been worried about whether lucid can produce and deliver cars well. I hope they can do as well as they say.
- GuSen:
  Agreed
- AlvinTham:
  Comment and like pls, thanks!
StefanieChua
2021-11-30
StefanieChua
Likes
CeciLi
2021-11-30
CeciLi
Pls like
- StefanieChua:
  Done
Royaloyalz
2021-11-30
Royaloyalz
Good
Andersonkana
2021-11-30
Andersonkana
Nice
- Royaloyalz:
  ok

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It's a distinction that CEO Peter Rawlinson has envisioned from the start to build the \"best car in the world.\" Rawlinson emphasized (edited):\n\n We're using our extraordinary efficiency to achieve range to create a technological tool to force to define the brand as a range king. (from Lucid's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nLucid has certainly boosted its brand value significantly among investors and consumers. The company is commencing production in the high-performance and luxury line. However, Rawlinson's ultimate objective is to use its technology to foster mass adoption worldwide. He added (edited):\n\n We use that \n technological advance as a commercial enabler. It means that we will be able to provide a car, which is competitive with range, at 300 miles, 400 miles. We also have plants in other parts of the world, in the Middle East and in China. And as a tech company, it's our technology, which we are confident will put us in this preeminent position. We\n designed this technology to be truly mass manufacturable. So I think scaling up volume is well within our sights. (from Lucid's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nWe believe that Lucid is still very early in its EV market opportunity, even though it seems like a latecomer. But, it has proven that its in-house powertrain and battery technology are among the best globally. Therefore, optimism surrounding LCID stock is expected. Now, the tough part comes as it begins volume production and schedule for deliveries. Rawlinson's arch-rival and one-time boss Elon Musk (Lucid specifically names Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) as its competitor in its 10-Q) has often lamented the difficulties of achieving and sustaining volume production efficiently and profitably. Therefore, there's a lot for Lucid to prove from here in terms of its production capability. We believe it would significantly affect where the stock will be over the next five years as EV competition heats up worldwide.\nLucid Targets 500K Run Rate by 2030'\nTesla LTM production. Data source: Company filings\nRawlinson highlighted that the company is on track to produce 20K units by 2022 and 50K by 2023, indicating a 150% YoY increase in its run rate. Notably, Lucid's target is to reach 500K annually by the end of 2030, as Rawlinson emphasized (edited):\n\n Right now, we're laser-focused on growing the scale towards 20K units next year, then 50K. But we're planning on 500K units by the end of the decade. We have a plan in place to expand Casa Grande to that level. We've got a Casa Grande capacity planned out to 365,000 units. But of course, we also plan plants in other parts of the world, the Middle East and in China. (from Lucid's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nWe believe ramping up production will be Lucid's most challenging endeavor. Tesla highlighted that its annual run rate has recently crossed 1M production this year. Based on current forecasts, Tesla might even double that capacity to 2M by 2023. The company also announced a 200M plan to upgrade Gigafactory Shanghai to expand its capacity. Giga Shanghai has played a critical role in Tesla's global expansion plans.\nIn addition, the company's last-twelve-months (LTM) production run rate has increased tremendously. It increased at a CAGR of 57.2% over the last five years to 804.3K in FQ3'21. Lucid plans to increase its annualized production run rate from 20K by 2022 to 500K by 2030. That would represent an incredible 49.5% CAGR over eight years. Therefore Lucid expects to match Tesla's stupendous capacity ramp over the last five years, but for eight immaculate years. We believe it's a tall order, a very ambitious target. Lucid will have a lot to prove to demonstrate operating leverage as it scales. But, we will probably only have a better idea over the next five years. CFO Sherry House articulated (edited):\n\n So we're expecting to have\n competitive gross margins by the time we reach mid-decade.You're going to see that our gross margins are not going to be there initially because we're activating depreciation expense, we're training new employees, we're going to be driving efficiency within the manufacturing arena over the next year, especially the next 1.5 years. And then you're going to see as the volume increases, our gross margins improving overall. (from Lucid's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nTesla automotive gross margins (ex-credits). Data source: Company filings\nReaders can easily observe the scale of Tesla's automotive gross margins (ex-credits) at an annualized run rate of 1M. The company reported a highly impressive gross margin of 28.8% in FQ3. It's almost unheard of in the legacy OEMs world. But, we aren't sure the level of gross margins that Lucid is targeting over the next five years? Is it 30% like Tesla? But, Tesla has an annualized run rate of 1M. Given Lucid's 2030 target of 500K units, it may be unreasonable to assume similar levels of gross margins. Lucid should provide clarity over its mid-term and long-term gross margins guidance for investors to evaluate its operational efficiencies better. As an early-stage company, there's a tremendous amount of uncertainty over its production capability right now. The company shouldn't leave it to investors to do the modeling solely by themselves. Even Lucid also acknowledges the risks. The company added:\n\n We are an early-stage company with a limited operating history, operating in a rapidly evolving and highly regulated market. Furthermore, we have only released one commercially available vehicle, and we have no experience manufacturing or selling a commercial product at scale.\n We have no experience to date in high volume manufacture of our vehicles. (from Lucid's FQ3'21 10-Q)\n\nWhat about Software and Autonomous Driving?\nThe ascent of Tesla and the leading Chinese EV makers has a lot to do with their brands and the growing EV adoption observed in China (#1 EV market) and Europe (#2 EV market). However, one really understated aspect is their capability and edge in software. Elon Musk mentioned recently that he considers his Chinese EV peers as Tesla's strongest competitors. He emphasized (edited):\n\n I have a great deal of respect for many\n Chinese automakers in driving software capability. My frank observation is that Chinese automobile companies are the most competitive in the world, especially because\n some are very good at software. Software will most likely shape the future of the automobile industry, especially when it comes to autonomous driving software. (from Electrek article)\n\nWe highlighted in a recent article that the chip supply crisis put Tesla's capability in software on display recently. The company posted a record FQ3 in deliveries, while their legacy OEM peers pointed to supply chain bottlenecks.\nIt was so impressive that even Volkswagen AG(OTCPK:VWAGY)Chairman Herbert Diess also applauded Tesla for its software capability. He articulated:\n\nOne example for the speed of Tesla: They handle the chip shortage very well– the reason: they are developing their own software. Within just 2-3 weeks they had a new software which allows them to use different chips. Impressive. (from Herbert Diess LinkedIn post)\n\nRecently, Tesla also unveiled its AI training chip at its AI day in August. Tesla is confident that its software and chip capability will accelerate its progress in autonomous driving. Tesla CEO Elon Musk emphasized: \"If it takes a couple of days for a model to train versus a couple of hours, it's a big deal.\"\nAutonomous driving is very significant to ARK Invest's 2025 Tesla thesis. ARK believes that Tesla will reach an automotive gross margin of 60% upon a successful robotaxi ramp by then.\nTherefore, this subjects Lucid's gross margins modeling into some disarray. If Tesla achieves full autonomy, it could create significant competitive advantages for the company against Lucid. Hence, we thought it would be critical if Lucid could demonstrate similar ambitions and capability in software and autonomous driving. However, we aren't convinced yet. Moreover, we don't think Lucid has been clear where they are at right now. It seems like their software strategy has not been moving in sync with its advances in powertrain and battery. Rawlinson added:\n\n The next step will be to advance that software. Now we're planning as a default to do that in-house, and we're building the team. But as you know, I'm very open here in Silicon Valley to potential partnerships in terms of the software. But I see that as a potential bonus, I think the default position is going to be to develop that software now and take that to world-class standard based upon the hardware suite we've got and to develop that in-house. (from Lucid's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nARK Invest CEO/CIO Cathie Wood recently weighed in on Lucid's and Rivian's(NASDAQ:RIVN)autonomous gameplan. She emphasized that both companies don't seem to have a viable game plan to challenge Tesla's lead at the moment. Wood emphasized (edited):\n\n I mentioned before in artificial intelligence, and this is where transportation is going. If we're going autonomous, and we've interviewed both Rivian and Lucid. We had meetings with their management teams. Neither is interested, at least for now in pursuing autonomous. (from Barron's interview)\n\nMoreover, Business Insider reported recently that Lucid's lack of experience in software could be troubling as it intends to compete with Tesla and the Chinese EV makers. Moreover, it's a technology that Rawlinson has acknowledged isn't his forte. Insider reported (edited):\n\n A former Lucid employee said that Rawlinson wants to do \"in two years in software what Tesla has done in 13. Given the lack of that experience on the software side definitely held the company back.\" The CEO also acknowledges this is not his forte. Rawlinson said: \"I don't profess to be the software guy. That's why I need to rely upon the great professionals that I have on this team.\" (from Insider article)\n\nTherefore, we think Lucid investors must consider and monitor the company's progress in software very carefully against tough competition. We hope that Lucid can also clarify its current software edge moving forward to help investors understand its technology better. Otherwise, investors would have to rely a lot on speculation and conjecture when considering Lucid's autonomous driving capabilities. We cannot simply consider that Lucid operates in the same market as Tesla did more than ten years ago. The market has evolved, and Lucid has the advantage of being a latecomer as well. The company strongly believes that it's a technology company and competitor. Therefore it should also demonstrate a highly competitive software lead against Tesla and the Chinese EV players.\nSo, is LCID Stock a Buy Now?\nPeers EV/FY23 Revenue Comps. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nLCID is currently trading at an EV/FY23 Revenue of 18.4x. As compared to its peers, LCID's valuation looks very expensive. Tesla stock is trading at just 11.9x. Moreover, NIO(NYSE:NIO)and XPeng(NYSE:XPEV)stock are trading at 4.2x and 4.4x, respectively.\nGiven the amount of uncertainty over Lucid's plans, as explained above, we can't justify its current valuation. In addition, LCID stock's valuation seems to have baked in a considerable amount of speculative fervor, which we don't find suitable for a long-term investment over a five-year horizon.\nTherefore, we rate LCID stock at Neutral for now. We will wait for more clarity from management over the points that we discussed above.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":609176184,"gmtCreate":1638259596030,"gmtModify":1638259596223,"author":{"id":"3563561143098282","authorId":"3563561143098282","name":"AlvinTham","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/845cfac0b817ce044b5bb49a395c4ca7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563561143098282","authorIdStr":"3563561143098282"},"htmlText":"Comment and like pls, thanks!","listText":"Comment and like pls, thanks!","text":"Comment and like pls, thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609176184","repostId":1182630148,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":609142536,"gmtCreate":1638257904147,"gmtModify":1638257904147,"author":{"id":"4099913546938890","authorId":"4099913546938890","name":"BearishBull","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/729ea1d2eea2adc495d0221b6ee7b7bc","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4099913546938890","authorIdStr":"4099913546938890"},"htmlText":"If Lucid is able to deliver on their products, they ought to be competing closely with Tesla. Lucid does not seem to have other products to highlight so they would need to be able to produce sufficient units and keep their tech relevant.","listText":"If Lucid is able to deliver on their products, they ought to be competing closely with Tesla. Lucid does not seem to have other products to highlight so they would need to be able to produce sufficient units and keep their tech relevant.","text":"If Lucid is able to deliver on their products, they ought to be competing closely with Tesla. Lucid does not seem to have other products to highlight so they would need to be able to produce sufficient units and keep their tech relevant.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609142536","repostId":1182630148,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6802325,"gmtCreate":1638372541367,"gmtModify":1638372541400,"authorId":4099913546938890,"author":{"id":4099913546938890,"idStr":"4099913546938890","authorId":4099913546938890,"name":"BearishBull","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/729ea1d2eea2adc495d0221b6ee7b7bc","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":609142536,"type":1,"supId":6798037,"prevId":0,"content":"I <u>totally</u> agree with you. Tesla has had problems with meeting demand as well. Again, Tesla is a larger company and has more credibility. With this, Lucid will have to be careful with proposed numbers","text":"I <u>totally</u> agree with you. Tesla has had problems with meeting demand as well. Again, Tesla is a larger company and has more credibility. With this, Lucid will have to be careful with proposed numbers","html":"I <u>totally</u> agree with you. Tesla has had problems with meeting demand as well. Again, Tesla is a larger company and has more credibility. With this, Lucid will have to be careful with proposed numbers"},{"id":6798090,"gmtCreate":1638350621055,"gmtModify":1638350621055,"authorId":9000000000000432,"author":{"id":9000000000000432,"idStr":"9000000000000432","authorId":9000000000000432,"name":"PagRobinson","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f27744c1fabf17b5f44122ab53e7da10","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":609142536,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"I think it's hard for him to surpass Tesla. Tesla has good R &amp; D and production capacity. There are many kinds of products. Lucid doesn't have these.","text":"I think it's hard for him to surpass Tesla. Tesla has good R &amp; D and production capacity. There are many kinds of products. Lucid doesn't have these.","html":"I think it's hard for him to surpass Tesla. Tesla has good R &amp; D and production capacity. There are many kinds of products. Lucid doesn't have these."},{"id":6798037,"gmtCreate":1638350349728,"gmtModify":1638350349728,"authorId":9000000000000640,"author":{"id":9000000000000640,"idStr":"9000000000000640","authorId":9000000000000640,"name":"DaisyMoore","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b6d4586dc3002807c92bc57e1b3a6bd","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":609142536,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"I've been worried about whether lucid can produce and deliver cars well. I hope they can do as well as they say.","text":"I've been worried about whether lucid can produce and deliver cars well. I hope they can do as well as they say.","html":"I've been worried about whether lucid can produce and deliver cars well. 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