疲软开局，持续走弱的美元对美股意味着什么？

华尔街见闻2021-05-30

今年4月以来，美元指数持续走弱，截至目前已经接近2014年以来的最低水平。有分析认为，如果美元指数跌破90关口，并在2021年下半年持续向80这一关口趋近，那么将对美股产生重大影响。今年4月以来，美元指数持续走弱，截至目前已经接近2014年以来的最低水平。美元指数为何持续走弱？Knowledge Leaders Capital网站刊登的一篇文章认为，这没什么可奇怪的，无论是美国货币放水还是...

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精彩评论

Yucy_TG_Mini
2021-05-31
Yucy_TG_Mini
基本共识
- PTdudu:
  Agree
- Yucy_TG_Mini:
  thx haha
无欲2057
2021-05-31
无欲2057
走弱是必然！放水高达25%，不软才乖怪！
Walking_sky
2021-05-31
Walking_sky
原料股走强
十八顺
2021-05-31
十八顺
没弄懂[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]
- 相见恨晚隨缘呗:
  [微笑]
向上学习
2021-05-31
向上学习
加息就上来啦。
- 向上学习:
  [微笑]
- EstherPang:
  [微笑]
- EstherPang:
  [微笑] [微笑]
- CPY91:
  [财迷]
- 向上学习:
  [微笑] [微笑]
Jefflau749
2021-05-31
Jefflau749
😃
- 2a6a341c:
  😉
- Jefflau749:
  赞

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Coward指出，首先，相对于其他国家，美国的货币供应继续以极快的速度增长，同时QE也可能全速持续到2021年底。\n不仅如此，美国预算赤字占GDP的比重预计将在2022年甚至更久之后爆炸性增长，而这一指标与美元指数水平密切相关。不断膨胀的预算赤字表明，未来几年美元指数处于70或80的水平并非不可能，这相当于从目前的水平继续下跌11%至22%。\n\n那么短期来看，美元指数持续下跌将会产生什么影响？\n文章的观点是，如果美元指数跌破90关口，并且在2021年下半年持续向80这一关口趋近，那么将对美股产生相当大的影响。\n具体来看，过去15年的时间，美股最持久的趋势之一就是科技股的强劲表现，即科技股表现优于基础材料股。不过考虑到美元指数和这两个板块相对表现之间的关联性，未来板块轮动可能从科技转向材料。\n\n 如图所示，红线代表了材料股和科技股的相对表现。自2005年以来，红线一直处于下降趋势，这意味着科技股表现强于材料股。直到最近，这一趋势才有所改变。蓝线代表着美元指数，不过刻度倒转。同样的时间段，美元指数大部分时间都在上涨……直到最近。美元指数和科技/材料相对表现之间的紧密关联表明，随着美元指数进一步疲软，美股板块轮动将从科技股轮动到材料股。对于被动投资者而言，这很棘手，也很有风险，因为科技股占到了标普500指数的比重超过40%。\n \n\n不过文章也提到，这种板块轮动背后的背后也有估值因素。相对于科技股，材料股的估值远低于平均水平。\n\n 如图所示，两张图分别显示了材料股相对科技股的市盈率和市净率，绿线显示了2006年以来的平均相对估值。\n \n估值必须始终放在盈利增长的背景下。科技股应该是市场的高速增长引擎，所以理论上科技股应该获得比低增长公司更高的估值。然而，材料股和科技股的相对增长正在正常化。这不是意味着材料公司将币科技公司增长更快，而是指这两类公司的增长速度差距正在缩小。”\n 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Agree","text":" Agree","html":" Agree"},{"id":4536082,"gmtCreate":1622590552925,"gmtModify":1635392103857,"authorId":3579390342643959,"author":{"id":3579390342643959,"idStr":"3579390342643959","authorId":3579390342643959,"name":"Yucy_TG_Mini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/229ce2f597d1d8482ba0e89e0cbef80b","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":110044501,"type":1,"supId":4535215,"prevId":0,"content":"thx haha","text":"thx haha","html":"thx 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