Inflation Is Higher in the U.S. Than Elsewhere, but Don’t Panic

The Wall Street Journal2021-08-18

While prices in the eurozone appear to be rising more slowly, the difference isn’t best explained by any inflationary economic policies in Washington. America likes being exceptional, but too much ...

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精彩评论

Valerie1209
2021-08-19
Valerie1209
++
- Valerie1209:
  ...
Weijunn
2021-08-19
Weijunn
👍
LuckyLucky
2021-08-19
LuckyLucky
...
- LuckyLucky:
  ...
Lainey_Lim
2021-08-19
Lainey_Lim
Yes, don’t panic and stay cool [Cool]
- Lainey_Lim:
  Also time to buy too
Roboticpro
2021-08-19
Roboticpro
Good info
uncle_leong
2021-08-18
uncle_leong
Liked

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A closer look at the data suggests that investors can keep calm.\nOn Wednesday, official figures confirmed that the harmonized consumer-price index in the eurozone rose 2.2% in July from a year earlier. This marked an acceleration relative to June, when inflation was 1.9%. But stripping out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices to see what is dubbed “core” inflation, the index only rose 0.7%, down from 0.9% the previous month.\nWhat is surprising isn’t inflation being too strong in the eurozone, but rather it being too weakrelative to the U.S., where CPI growth reached 5.4% in July, with core inflation at 4.3%.\nOfficials argue that today’s inflation is only temporarily higher as global prices rebound from the troughs of the pandemic and companies work through supply bottlenecks. Yet, if it is so much higher in the U.S., doesn’t this mean that excessive fiscal and monetary policy are driving the economy—since transfers to households have been less generous in Europe—and could trigger a dangerous delayed reaction by the Federal Reserve? Some prominent economists think so.\nOnce compared with U.S. data, however, Wednesday’s figures show that more than half of the 3.2-percentage-point gap between inflation figures across the Atlantic can be explained away by two factors.\nThe first is Americans’ reliance on used cars, which make up 3.5% of their consumption baskets, versus 1.1% for Europeans. Auto makers are having production issues due to a microchip shortage. In Europe, consumers have delayed car purchases. In the U.S., they have bid the price of used cars up 42%.\nThe other has to do with the way shelter costs are calculated. U.S. numbers include a theoretical category that factors in the rent that owner-occupiers would pay if they rented, whereas European statistics only count those who are actually renting—an issue that the European Central Bank is seeking to address. This has long made eurozone inflation appear lower, and is key now: While rents in both regions are up by a similar amount, they account for a massive 31% of the U.S. CPI basket, and only 7.5% of the European one.\nOf the differences that remain, most seem related to the U.S. having reopened its economy first, particularly travel. Airfares are up 19%, reflecting the degree of normality U.S. carriers are enjoying in the domestic market. Meanwhile, their European counterparts are still dealing with rafts of travel restrictions and have only increased prices 1%. There are similar stories for restaurants and hotels.\nTo be sure, the relative surge in some price categories, such as apparel, could be more indicative of demand-led pressure caused by American consumers being awash with cash. But the weakness inthe latest U.S. retail sales datashould be a check on any assumptions that a short-term rebound in spending willnecessarily lead to a sustained boom.\nOverall, most goods’ prices have remained remarkably stable during the pandemic. A rebound in services will likely help European headline inflation catch up with its U.S. counterpart somewhat in the coming months. With the labor market recovery far from complete, though, signs of economic overheating on either side of the Atlantic are likely a mathematical 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don’t panic and stay cool&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"Yes, don’t panic and stay cool&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"Yes, don’t panic and stay cool [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831655597","repostId":1181537707,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5571477,"gmtCreate":1629326131125,"gmtModify":1631894186590,"authorId":3586571907390098,"author":{"id":3586571907390098,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorId":3586571907390098,"name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":831655597,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Also time to buy too ","text":"Also time to buy too ","html":"Also time to buy too 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