高盛：美联储明年提前至3、6、9月加息，四季度缩表

华尔街见闻2021-12-19

作者：夏雨辰 12月15日，靴子落地，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）官宣加快Taper。在这之后，高盛对市场最关注的美联储何时将会开始加息，以及具体的加息和缩表时间做出了最新的预测。 FOMC声明称，从明年1月起，QE减量规模翻番，即每月减少的资产购买规模从之前的150亿美元翻番至300亿美元。如此以来，减码速度提高一倍，明年3月美联储就能提前结束资产购买计划，而非此前市场预期的6月。何时...

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Hing On Huat
2021-12-19
Hing On Huat
[微笑]
Ysw16888
2021-12-19
Ysw16888
啊
- IvySim:
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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647627><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：夏雨辰\n12月15日，靴子落地，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）官宣加快Taper。在这之后，高盛对市场最关注的美联储何时将会开始加息，以及具体的加息和缩表时间做出了最新的预测。\nFOMC声明称，从明年1月起，QE减量规模翻番，即每月减少的资产购买规模从之前的150亿美元翻番至300亿美元。\n如此以来，减码速度提高一倍，明年3月美联储就能提前结束资产购买计划，而非此前市场预期的6月。\n何时...</p>\n\n<a 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到2022年底，我们有机会看到通胀将会放缓，这会降低美联储加息的紧迫性。\n\nFOMC声明也提到，美国就业稳步增长，失业率大幅下降。但经济前景仍然存在风险，包括奥密克戎变体带来的风险。\n何时缩表？\n高盛称，由于加息时间的提前，预计明年第四季度美联储可能就会开始缩减资产负债表。此前，高盛预计美联储将于2023年上半年才会开始缩表。\n高盛认为，美联储最终缩减资产负债表对市场的影响可能比加息更大，因为美联储购买的资产实在太多了，这导致了美债市场前所未有地缺乏流动性。\n在疫情之前的2020年1月，美联储的资产负债表为4.1万亿美元，而现在已经增加到8.7万亿美元。\n高盛预计，此次美联储缩减资产负债表的表现，可能会比前一次金融危机过后那时来的更果断、更大胆。\n高盛最新预测的美联储加息和缩表的时间","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":699721986,"gmtCreate":1639903647153,"gmtModify":1639903647153,"author":{"id":"4101470120361620","authorId":"4101470120361620","name":"Hing On 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