30万人围观这场策略会！究竟说了哪些重要信息？

中国证券网2021-06-23

今年以来，A股市场可谓跌宕起伏，结构性行情特征显著，使市场机会更趋集中，增加了投资难度。展望下半年行情，影响A股走势的关键性因素有哪些？新的投资主线又在哪儿？ 6月22日，在安信证券2021年中期策略会上，安信证券首席经济学家高善文、首席策略分析师陈果等大咖发表了对经济及市场趋势的最新研判，此次策略会吸引了30多万人连线观看。牛心熊胆下半年仍是“过渡期” “如果说去年的市场是拥抱确定性，那么...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

罗素London
2021-06-23
罗素London
[强]
一盖
2021-06-23
一盖
半导体、新能源、医疗服务、军工、新材料、人工智能等行业。这些我都有基金布局。看好
一盖
2021-06-23
一盖
牛心熊胆说得好，哈哈哈
Kstan85
2021-06-23
Kstan85
[呆住]
恭喜你发财水中花
2021-06-23
恭喜你发财水中花
[傲娇] [傲娇] [傲娇] 发！发！发
- MyKhoo:
  K

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如何调整配置？\n二季度，部分曾大幅回撤的“核心资产”再度创出新高，但同时也有不少行业龙头股，如保险、消费电子、水泥等板块龙头股却未见回升。\n对此现象，陈果认为，这是市场一个很重要的变化，表明市场主线已经悄然转变，简单的“龙头躺赢”策略正逐步失效，与经济总量增速强相关的龙头公司不再享受高估值溢价，未来或跟随行业景气预期下行而逐步走弱。\n他表示，接下来的配置主线应围绕“快车道”，回归“长赛道+高景气”。在经济增速中枢下行背景下，能够做到高增长的板块会维持高估值水平。虽然其在外部扰动下，也可能会有回撤，但回撤后，依然将是市场配置主线。\n“目前，我国高端制造产业已经进入了发展快车道，制造升级也推动着消费同步升级。会有一批公司的资本回报率处在持续上升通道中，这也会吸引各路资本追逐。”\n陈果认为，就具体赛道可重点关注半导体、新能源、医疗服务、军工、新材料、人工智能等行业。此外，择股方面不应局限于现有的龙头，在盈利驱动后期，业绩高弹性、高增速的中小盘成长股将优于大盘成长股。\n未来5到10年利率或趋势性下降\n就宏观层面而言，经济和市场接下来会发生哪些变化？\n高善文表示，从经济行为的角度看，疫情对经济和生活可能产生两个影响：一是人们承受风险的意愿和能力在下降，不愿去冒险；二是在经济活动正式重启后，供应能力较难快速恢复。\n他提到，疫情期间，居民储蓄出现系统性上升，尤其是美国积累的被动储蓄比较惊人，由于被动储蓄并不会很快被消费掉，因此后续美国形成大幅通胀冲击的可能性不大。这对债券市场有利，对权益市场的影响也是偏正面的。\n对于A股市场，高善文表示，过去10年利率的上升抑制了估值和盈利，但未来5到10年利率或出现趋势性下降。预计到2030年，10年期国债利率会降低，可能跌到2％的水平。这将极大影响权益市场，过去10年资本市场比较“难熬”，但未来10年会好得多。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":123547800,"gmtCreate":1624431797800,"gmtModify":1624431797800,"author":{"id":"3576640463093459","authorId":"3576640463093459","authorIdStr":"3576640463093459","name":"罗素London","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9969255f02bcdd16ca31ef33facd48df","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576640463093459"},"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123547800","repostId":1181151216,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":123512532,"gmtCreate":1624429078426,"gmtModify":1624429078426,"author":{"id":"3525321416590045","authorId":"3525321416590045","authorIdStr":"3525321416590045","name":"一盖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a1b84f5dbfb06f77db786d64e2bd40","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3525321416590045"},"htmlText":"半导体、新能源、医疗服务、军工、新材料、人工智能等行业。这些我都有基金布局。看好","listText":"半导体、新能源、医疗服务、军工、新材料、人工智能等行业。这些我都有基金布局。看好","text":"半导体、新能源、医疗服务、军工、新材料、人工智能等行业。这些我都有基金布局。看好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123512532","repostId":1181151216,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":123510568,"gmtCreate":1624428881554,"gmtModify":1624428881554,"author":{"id":"3525321416590045","authorId":"3525321416590045","authorIdStr":"3525321416590045","name":"一盖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a1b84f5dbfb06f77db786d64e2bd40","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3525321416590045"},"htmlText":"牛心熊胆说得好，哈哈哈","listText":"牛心熊胆说得好，哈哈哈","text":"牛心熊胆说得好，哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123510568","repostId":1181151216,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":123225753,"gmtCreate":1624426005972,"gmtModify":1634006273611,"author":{"id":"3560815977806506","authorId":"3560815977806506","authorIdStr":"3560815977806506","name":"Kstan85","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2520ec2fbd26b2153403ffcd79501d06","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560815977806506"},"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123225753","repostId":1181151216,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":123688475,"gmtCreate":1624420880397,"gmtModify":1624420880397,"author":{"id":"3584006220149732","authorId":"3584006220149732","authorIdStr":"3584006220149732","name":"恭喜你发财水中花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d896f5aacf4dbf4ec3d5f9423a89895","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584006220149732"},"htmlText":"[傲娇]&nbsp;[傲娇]&nbsp;[傲娇]&nbsp;发！发！发","listText":"[傲娇]&nbsp;[傲娇]&nbsp;[傲娇]&nbsp;发！发！发","text":"[傲娇] 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