“加税+高通胀”，三季度或成为美股风险集中爆发点

智通财经2021-06-08

作者：何钰程摩根士丹利近日表示，虽然目前美股不断下滑的市盈率已在很大程度上被不断上升的企业盈利预期所抵消，但随着成本压力上升、企业税上调阴云来袭，美股未来半年或回调10%-15%。鉴于过去四个季度，美股企业盈利超出预期的幅度高达20%，创下前所未有的新纪录，相比之下，2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。智通财经APP注意到，在2020年上半年疫情封锁期间，只有三个标准普尔500指数成分股在...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

YongGuang
2021-06-09
YongGuang
Oao
- YongGuang:
  Oao
- SanGuo:
  [开心]
CKWAI
2021-06-09
CKWAI
来，回复和点赞，谢谢
- CKWAI:
  谢谢
hhyw
2021-06-09
hhyw
大跌吧🙃🙃🙃🙃
- AliciaLing:
  原来你也等着🙌🏼
- hhyw:
  对
Youn7276
2021-06-09
Youn7276
准备好了，来把！加吧！
Kokmun0087
2021-06-08
Kokmun0087
多谢分享
AliciaLing
2021-06-08
AliciaLing
加税高通胀，念好久，大家已经做好心理准备，来吧！
- SunnyLeo:
  准备和真的到来还是有点差距的[开心]

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179000628?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0bcd99a5c3036928825c7c943e566f","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-06-08 17:24","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","id":"1179000628","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"“加税+高通胀”，三季度或成为美股风险集中爆发点","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>作者： 何钰程\n摩根士丹利近日表示，虽然目前美股不断下滑的市盈率已在很大程度上被不断上升的企业盈利预期所抵消，但随着成本压力上升、企业税上调阴云来袭，美股未来半年或回调10%-15%。\n鉴于过去四个季度，美股企业盈利超出预期的幅度高达20%，创下前所未有的新纪录，相比之下，2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。\n智通财经APP注意到，在2020年上半年疫情封锁期间，只有三个标准普尔500指数成分股在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“加税+高通胀”，三季度或成为美股风险集中爆发点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“加税+高通胀”，三季度或成为美股风险集中爆发点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-08 17:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者： 何钰程\n摩根士丹利近日表示，虽然目前美股不断下滑的市盈率已在很大程度上被不断上升的企业盈利预期所抵消，但随着成本压力上升、企业税上调阴云来袭，美股未来半年或回调10%-15%。\n鉴于过去四个季度，美股企业盈利超出预期的幅度高达20%，创下前所未有的新纪录，相比之下，2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。\n智通财经APP注意到，在2020年上半年疫情封锁期间，只有三个标准普尔500指数成分股在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/490104.html","article_id":"1179000628","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0bcd99a5c3036928825c7c943e566f"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179000628","pubTimestamp":1623144281,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"\"Tax increase + high inflation\" may become a concentrated outbreak point of US stock risks in the third quarter","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c90df8a8ce87fe73475049c0a8a2f61","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"作者： 何钰程\n摩根士丹利近日表示，虽然目前美股不断下滑的市盈率已在很大程度上被不断上升的企业盈利预期所抵消，但随着成本压力上升、企业税上调阴云来袭，美股未来半年或回调10%-15%。\n鉴于过去四个季度，美股企业盈利超出预期的幅度高达20%，创下前所未有的新纪录，相比之下，2021年下半年的盈利情况相对严峻。\n智通财经APP注意到，在2020年上半年疫情封锁期间，只有三个标准普尔500指数成分股在2020年第一季度和第二季度实现了正收益和收入增长，即科技、保健以及公用事业行业。\n下图FactSet(FDS)显示了2021年第二季度预期的创纪录结果，这是自2009年第四季度以来最好的一次。\n加税——美股下半年最大的风险\n6月5日的G7财长会议通告支持征收15%全球最低税率的提议，拜登国内加税提案如落地，预计将是美股下半年最大的风险：企业所得税的上调将直接冲击美股盈利，而当前有效税率较低、海外收入占比高的科技和医药行业受冲击预计最大。\n中信证券表示，若资本利得税若上调至39.6%，预计将引发投资者抛售，今年2月以来“散户加杠杆”入市的趋势或逆转。\n3季度或成为美股集中爆发点\n虽然市场对今年标普500盈利增速的一致预期已从4月中旬的27%上调至当前的34%，但鉴于目前标普指数动态估值仍处于22倍左右的高位。在无新的催化因素下，美股大市进一步上行的空间有限。\n相反，各类风险却在逐步加剧。若美联储于8月底明确释放削减购债的信号，且民主党于9月底前如期通过加税法案，则3季度下旬或是美股风险集中爆发的时间点。\n而如果资本利得税改的起始有效日最终确定为2022年1月1日，则“散户加杠杆”资金的大概率流出可能会在4季度对美股的表现造成负面影响。\n能源股仍具备吸引力\n在美国股市今年以来的交易中，能源股是表现最好的一个板块，但要弥补多年以来的大幅下跌，这个板块还有很大的上行空间。\n如拉长时间轴来看，能源生产商的股价尚未恢复到2014年夏季开始的油价大跌之前的水平。\n\n如埃克森美孚(XOM.US)和雪佛龙(CVX.US)正在推动能源行业每股收益增长的上调。\n目前能源占标普500指数市值的比例仍然只有3%。这一比例在2014年8月至9月达到14%-15%的峰值。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":180144943,"gmtCreate":1623196524882,"gmtModify":1634036006483,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577440999113647","authorIdStr":"3577440999113647"},"htmlText":"Oao&nbsp;","listText":"Oao&nbsp;","text":"Oao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180144943","repostId":1179000628,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4640070,"gmtCreate":1623196546729,"gmtModify":1635331639802,"authorId":3577440999113647,"author":{"id":3577440999113647,"idStr":"3577440999113647","authorId":3577440999113647,"name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":180144943,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Oao</u>","text":"<u>Oao</u>","html":"<u>Oao</u>"},{"id":4640427,"gmtCreate":1623197505403,"gmtModify":1635331603723,"authorId":3571627066348611,"author":{"id":3571627066348611,"idStr":"3571627066348611","authorId":3571627066348611,"name":"SanGuo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ae7b7834c27e538495b0e677576017b","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":180144943,"type":1,"supId":4640070,"prevId":0,"content":"[开心]","text":"[开心]","html":"[开心]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":180149444,"gmtCreate":1623196320888,"gmtModify":1634036011475,"author":{"id":"3576460381606543","authorId":"3576460381606543","name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576460381606543","authorIdStr":"3576460381606543"},"htmlText":"来，回复和点赞，谢谢","listText":"来，回复和点赞，谢谢","text":"来，回复和点赞，谢谢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180149444","repostId":1179000628,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4639969,"gmtCreate":1623196331910,"gmtModify":1635331650173,"authorId":3576460381606543,"author":{"id":3576460381606543,"idStr":"3576460381606543","authorId":3576460381606543,"name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":180149444,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"谢谢","text":"谢谢","html":"谢谢"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":180151162,"gmtCreate":1623196003256,"gmtModify":1634036017644,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorIdStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"大跌吧🙃🙃🙃🙃","listText":"大跌吧🙃🙃🙃🙃","text":"大跌吧🙃🙃🙃🙃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180151162","repostId":1179000628,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4650221,"gmtCreate":1623243105944,"gmtModify":1635330715290,"authorId":3558680293731120,"author":{"id":3558680293731120,"idStr":"3558680293731120","authorId":3558680293731120,"name":"AliciaLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca35384a8589b2187095e5d2d4706a00","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":180151162,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"原来你也等着🙌🏼","text":"原来你也等着🙌🏼","html":"原来你也等着🙌🏼"},{"id":4651750,"gmtCreate":1623248308159,"gmtModify":1635330604226,"authorId":3561544476596136,"author":{"id":3561544476596136,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorId":3561544476596136,"name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":180151162,"type":1,"supId":4650221,"prevId":0,"content":"对","text":"对","html":"对"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":180314576,"gmtCreate":1623187176195,"gmtModify":1634036127693,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"准备好了，来把！加吧！","listText":"准备好了，来把！加吧！","text":"准备好了，来把！加吧！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180314576","repostId":1179000628,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":180901845,"gmtCreate":1623166796887,"gmtModify":1631892122700,"author":{"id":"3580697639970256","authorId":"3580697639970256","name":"Kokmun0087","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c62944e7911c3cf63a88be9bf5d47f3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580697639970256","authorIdStr":"3580697639970256"},"htmlText":"多谢分享","listText":"多谢分享","text":"多谢分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180901845","repostId":1179000628,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":117528287,"gmtCreate":1623152615849,"gmtModify":1634036417948,"author":{"id":"3558680293731120","authorId":"3558680293731120","name":"AliciaLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca35384a8589b2187095e5d2d4706a00","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558680293731120","authorIdStr":"3558680293731120"},"htmlText":"加税高通胀，念好久，大家已经做好心理准备，来吧！","listText":"加税高通胀，念好久，大家已经做好心理准备，来吧！","text":"加税高通胀，念好久，大家已经做好心理准备，来吧！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117528287","repostId":1179000628,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4638631,"gmtCreate":1623192455029,"gmtModify":1635331778685,"authorId":3574831020474056,"author":{"id":3574831020474056,"idStr":"3574831020474056","authorId":3574831020474056,"name":"SunnyLeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e6a3a9725451bfd426b0bdbb68be5","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":117528287,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"准备和真的到来还是有点差距的[开心]","text":"准备和真的到来还是有点差距的[开心]","html":"准备和真的到来还是有点差距的[开心]"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":44,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1179000628"}