大摩：全球发生了史上最大的“范式转变”

金十数据2021-06-14

美国经济社会出现一个急剧转变，随着通胀飙升，经济周期将变得更热但更短。摩根士丹利首席经济学家兼全球经济主管Chetan Ahya近日在一篇文章中表示：过去三年全球发生了史上最大的“范式转变”。他曾经被问及在纽约三年工作期间所目睹全球宏观领域最重要的发展。很多人一下子就想到了疫情，以及疫情对生活方式结构性，但这位分析师认为，更大的转变是疫情是如何引发了企业利润和工资在国民收入中的分配方式。这位...

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Ahya近日在一篇文章中表示：过去三年全球发生了史上最大的“范式转变”。\n他曾经被问及在纽约三年工作期间所目睹全球宏观领域最重要的发展。很多人一下子就想到了疫情，以及疫情对生活方式结构性，但这位分析师认为，更大的转变是疫情是如何引发了企业利润和工资在国民收入中的分配方式。这位分析师提到了一个观点——美国经济社会出现一个急剧转变，随着通胀飙升，经济周期将变得更热但更短。\n开始之前我们还是先回顾一下背景吧。过去40年来，企业利润在GDP中的份额一直在上升，而工资份额直到最近一直在下降。与此同时，收入不平等急剧增加，代际流动性下降。虽然这些趋势本质上是全球性的，但在美国，这个趋势几乎是最明显的。\n随着时间的推移，这些趋势变得越来越不可持续，市民的呼声越来越高。而倒逼美国最终作出改变的催化剂是疫情的爆发——当疫情引发的经济衰退令到低收入家庭身上负担加重时，政策制定者将被迫采取行动。\n他们是怎么做的呢？其实从过去一年美国政府所作出的行动就得知一二。\n在宏观层面，他们对财政政策的实施已从紧缩转向激进，外媒指出，美国对这次衰退的财政支持已经是二战以来最大规模的，而政策制定者还在制定额外的财政方案。至于美联储，其已经重新制定了就业和通胀目标，驱动失业率下降。\n在微观层面，美国政策制定者正在干预以缓和市场力量的不利影响，例如正在努力提高最低工资。但同时，美国对技术、贸易和巨头三方面的审查也将越来越严格，因为这三要素是压低工资在GDP中所占份额的关键原因。前一届美国政府已经在贸易政策上采取了新的策略，种种迹象表明，在拜登政府的领导下，这一政策将会持续。\n与此同时，政策制定者正在关注企业巨头的行动。这些公司往往行业集中度高，削弱了劳动力的议价能力，而且它们的扩张也导致了美国工人的工资在GDP中的份额普遍下降。\n政策制定者采取行动解决收入不平等问题卓有成效，工资占GDP的比重此前40年来一路下降趋势终于被逆转。\n\n这一大趋势的逆转对宏观格局产生深远影响，主要体现在两个方面。\n首先，通胀将会飙升，高通胀将变得持久。大摩的基本假设是，剔除基数效应后，美国核心PCE通胀将从2022年4月起升至2%以上，甚至实际中可能持续飙升至2.5%。\n其次，经济周期可能会更热，但可能结束得更快。政府干预之下，市场或实现更快的充分就业。但在经济复苏后期，当政策收紧时可能更具破坏性，甚至面临经济停摆的风险。\n大摩指出，美国在疫情爆发时的政策转向使美国走上了新的道路。展望未来，这些行动的普遍性和持久性将决定美国经济在这个新方向上能走多远。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":185274399,"gmtCreate":1623657782011,"gmtModify":1634030561729,"author":{"id":"3575508103712478","authorId":"3575508103712478","name":"60fe72a9","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575508103712478","authorIdStr":"3575508103712478"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185274399","repostId":1177706240,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":185283447,"gmtCreate":1623653323689,"gmtModify":1634030602487,"author":{"id":"3570939692047814","authorId":"3570939692047814","name":"CYau","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2e95f0892ea42f2c8b533a3c4db200","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570939692047814","authorIdStr":"3570939692047814"},"htmlText":"Like 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