欧洲“断气”，对中国相关产业意味着什么？

华尔街见闻2022-09-06

作者：赵颖俄罗斯“北溪-1”无限期关闭正在全球市场掀起滔天巨浪。欧洲作为全球第二大化工品生产基地，此次所引发的欧洲天然气供应危机或将影响欧洲相关化工品供应，其中主要涉及到下图产品：一旦上述化工品出现断供，新一轮涨价潮或势在必行。分析师认为，对于中国化工产业而言，这是一次全球地位进一步抬升的机会，量和质都有望体现。华创证券在最新的报告中指出，短期来看，中国和欧洲化工品的成本大幅度分化，给中国化工品...

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精彩评论

LQN林
2022-09-06
LQN林
可能是欧洲更不好过，断了能源估计民众要闹翻天了俄罗斯能源出口有中国印度
LQN林
2022-09-06
LQN林
嗯嗯
MOORE
2022-09-06
MOORE
就别一厢情愿了，从古希腊打到现在，这边都在幻想
猛逃
2022-09-06
猛逃
利好老美页岩气[财迷]
龙鉴兮
2022-09-06
龙鉴兮
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
斯德哥鹅摩
2022-09-06
斯德哥鹅摩
天然气出口国还有不少，只要多花钱过冬根本不是问题。反而是依赖能源出口的俄罗斯将被彻底替代，欧洲再也没有俄罗斯的立足之地。
- 手谈二三:
  反过来说，世界就再也没有欧洲什么事了 [捂脸]
- 乌海回复斯德哥鹅摩:
  是的
- 斯德哥鹅摩:
  买不到和多花点钱买是两码事，菜涨价了和没菜可买也是两个概念。俄罗斯自掘坟墓，欧洲人一直防着俄罗斯是对的
- 西域雄鹰:
  未必，同样的东西，买贵或是便宜，看口袋里的银子说话！

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考虑到近期乌克兰宣称春耕面积减少50%，我们对于全球的粮食供给依然保持担忧，进而持续推荐化肥的强周期上行。2）稳经济：坚持疫情清零政策不动摇，国内经济增速压力加大，因为疫情防控消失的需求可能会换来后续更加强劲的政策刺激，地产链条值得关注。3）电价套利：油气大幅度上涨，海外电价持续抬升至 2-3 元/度，相比之下，国内东部企 业电价 6-8 毛/度，而西部地区仅仅 1-2 毛/度，关注单位产值高 电耗产品的电价差套利机会。单位产值电耗从高到低排序的化工品为： 电石、黄磷、烧碱、工业硅、合成氨等。4）产能转移：预期欧洲能源危机带给中国产能转移的机会。若欧洲化工装置 因为能源和原料出现减产或停产，中国有望凭借产业链优势实现产能转移。以 2020 年为元年起点。展望未来的 5-10 年， 我们需要做一个方向性的判断：资源端优势将会凸显并且放大。3、长期看产业转移华创证券表示，长期看产业转移。从 BASF 的二季报可以看出，得益于低价能源库存+长协供应+政府补贴，成本上涨尚未完全体现，而明年或将完全体现在欧洲企业的成本中。2023 年的天然气价格也许不如当下恐慌高位，但中枢价格一定远胜过往。欧洲之所以能在化工行业占有重要一席之地，除了深厚的技术积累以 外，很大一部分得益于俄罗斯的廉价能源。当欧洲和俄罗斯脱钩后，欧洲告别低能源，届时产业转移有望发生，而中 国凭借完善的产业集群和原材料保障，有望成为优选。对于中国的化工产业是一次产业升级的绝佳机会。此外，华创证券强调，2022 年的冬季，能源安全依然会是核心矛盾。新旧能源切换和地缘政治冲突带来的能源套利空间显著，依然看好今年能源价格，疆煤、美气、俄油，成为能源套利三大洼地。同时，华创证券更加侧重上游资源型和中游加工型，认为行业利润会更加偏向上游。基础化工细分子行业赛道分析1、轮胎行业迎来长期主义者的布局良机华创证券认为，短期利空不改长期趋势：公司业绩将回暖，并迎来戴维斯双击。而拐点的出现，将有望为我们迎来年度级别的投资机会，盈利的修复将以国内竞争的底部、海外市场的超额利润和公司估值回归三重形式体现。2、粮价近期呈震荡趋势，旺季将至看好行业景气持续华创证券看好 PPI 向 CPI 切换下的农化行业投资机会：随着库存的下降和价格低位的影响，全球农作物价格以开启上涨周期，而为粮价维持高位将驱动化肥行业利润空间提升。3、磷化工产业链需求向上传导，看好上半年磷酸铁供需错配格局华创证券认为：由于磷酸铁扩产周期比磷酸铁锂长，且磷酸铁锂厂家大多未向上游磷酸铁业务延伸布局， 从未来半年到一年时间看，磷酸铁扩产增量有限，预计仍将处于供给紧张的状态。4、碳中和利好技术优势企业，关注西部地区煤炭套利优势华创证券表示，完全摒弃煤化工而发展天然气及其他如生物质等清洁能源并不具备可行性，较为可行的方向是：通过对已有装置进行效率的提升、对现有企业进行产品结构的调整来实现减排和固碳，未来的行业发展趋势为现代煤化工对传统煤化工的替代。5、氯碱：上游受益碳中和，下游短期地产承压，长期光伏打开新增需求碳中和背景下，氯碱行业扩张从源头受到抑制。而需求端房地产新开工已经恢复增长，未来 PVC 供需 或持续偏紧。6、钛白粉：供应有所收紧，市场淡季需求不佳钛白粉尚未达到供需平衡的状态，供应方面，伴随下游房地产行业运行低迷，钛白粉价 格开始接连快速下降。需求方面：本周，钛白粉内需市场持续低迷，整体需求依旧未有明显改善。7、聚氨酯：海外需求持续回暖，长期看好 MDI 的集中度提升华创证券长期看好 MDI 在碳中和背景下的需求提升，预计后续随着海外需求持续恢复和国内建筑装修需求的走高， MDI 或有新一轮景气上行。8、民营大炼化：原油价格震荡下跌，乙烯价差改善本周全球经济状况不佳，原油价格震荡下跌，聚酯材料等新材料产业延伸打开未来成长空间。9、化纤：下游织造负荷持续回升，需求端或迎来有效改善限电放松下游开工提升，长丝库存持续下行。需求端，叠加传统旺季金九银十即将来临，江浙下游开机率有所回升，但整体需求仍显疲软态势，未来或迎来有效改善。10、维生素及蛋氨酸：欧洲能源危机或致供给收紧，有望迎来景气反转华创证券指出，欧洲能源危机，巴斯夫路德维希港基地（是全球主要的 VA、VE 生产基地之一）面临关停风险，莱茵河或再断航，或影响全球维生素供给，有望催化维生素价格反弹。其他化工产品方面，C3&C4现在处于需求淡季，C3 产业链价差仍处低位；氟化工产业链，三氯乙烯价格调涨，萤石价格小幅上行；硅化工方面，金属硅价格继续回落，有机硅 DMC 累库；从改性塑料来看，BOPP 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