DraftKings Stock: Down 60% From Its High, A Great Long-Term Buy Opportunity Has Emerged

Seeking Alpha2021-12-27

Summary DraftKings stock has collapsed 60% from its 2021 high. Investors are concerned whether the company can ever turn profitable. We discuss these concerns in the article. We also discuss why we ...

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littlekitten
2021-12-27
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDraftKings Stock: Down 60% From Its High, A Great Long-Term Buy Opportunity Has Emerged\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-27 16:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476788-draftkings-dkng-stock-down-from-high-long-term-buy-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nDraftKings stock has collapsed 60% from its 2021 high.\nInvestors are concerned whether the company can ever turn profitable.\nWe discuss these concerns in the article.\nWe also discuss why we ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476788-draftkings-dkng-stock-down-from-high-long-term-buy-opportunity\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"DKNG","symbol_name":"DraftKings Inc.","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476788-draftkings-dkng-stock-down-from-high-long-term-buy-opportunity","article_id":"1177527268","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177527268","pubTimestamp":1640594368,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nDraftKings stock has collapsed 60% from its 2021 high.\nInvestors are concerned whether the ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"DKNG":"DraftKings Inc."},"translate_title":"DraftKings股票：从高点下跌60%，一个伟大的长期买入机会出现了","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DKNG":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nDraftKings stock has collapsed 60% from its 2021 high.\nInvestors are concerned whether the company can ever turn profitable.\nWe discuss these concerns in the article.\nWe also discuss why we think the opportunity for long-term investors is looking fantastic now.\n\nDarren McCollester/Getty Images Entertainment\nDraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) is one of the most contentious companies that we have covered. The short-sellers favorite has also been discussed in the media lately, as Jim Chanos called out DraftKings' business model as \"flawed.\" He also derided that DraftKings' sales and marketing spend was \"completely and totally insane.\"\nCurrently, the short-sellers seem to have the momentum on their side as the price has declined 60% from its 2021 all-time high (ATH). In addition, S3 Partners have tracked consistent short-selling activity this year compared to the previous year. As of 15 December, DKNG's short percent of float reached 12.2%.\nNotably, DKNG stock has been holding at its crucial support level even as the short-selling activity intensified in recent weeks. We have been observing the price action closely and believe that if the current level continues to hold, the stock can consolidate moving forward. It would then allow the market makers to accumulate quietly before forcing the shorts to cover and subsequently drive up the stock's momentum.\nThe momentum in the market also seems to have swung back in favor of growth stocks lately. Coupled with the recent insider purchases, its price action, and the high short-selling activity, we believe it's time for long-term investors to consider adding exposure.\nDKNG Stock Performance\nDKNG stock YTD performance (as of 23 December' 21).\nDKNG stock performance from 24 April '20 (as of 23 December' 21).\nReaders can quickly glean that DraftKings stock has significantly underperformed this year, as it returned -36.8% YTD. Its keen rival Flutter Entertainment(OTCPK:PDYPY)also had an underwhelming year with a YTD return of 24.5%. However, considering its performance since it went public last year, the stock returned 52.1% or a CAGR of 28.7%. It outperformed Flutter, although it's underperforming the broad market currently. Some investors could have taken the opportunity to cash in, given the stock's magnificent gains since it went public.\nCan DraftKings Ever Turn Profitable?\nDraftKings SG&A margins (LTM). Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBears often lamented that CEO Jason Robins & Co. will \"never\" turn profitable as it continues to spend an astronomical amount on customer acquisitions costs (CAC). Readers can easily refer to the above chart where DraftKings' SG&A margin has consistently been over 100% of its revenue over the past year from a last-twelve-months (LTM) basis.\nThe bears are right to question whether its business model makes sense. It comes even as DraftKings' has significantly strengthened its leadership in the online sports betting (OSB) and the iGaming market. For readers who are new to this company, DraftKings' is the #2 player in the OSB market behind Flutter's FanDuel. In the iGaming market, it's the #2 player behind BetMGM (MGM) (OTCPK:GMVHF) following its acquisition of Golden Nugget Online Gaming (GNOG), which is pending closure. Therefore, investors in DraftKings are investing in a pure-play online leader which has demonstrated its ability to compete with players with profitable legacy gaming assets or even its land-based peers.\nNevertheless, we believe it's vital for DraftKings to address its runway to profitability, which it did. It has also attracted significant interest from the Street. Therefore, it has also allowed the company to address it multiple times in the past. Yes, the company has already addressed it numerous times, but the question kept propping up. Moreover, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins articulated (edited): \"We are focused on people who are true believers.Some people will say anything to make a buck. Obviously, it's annoying when people come and make stuff up and do that at their own service, but there's not much you can do about it.\"\nDraftKings has presented its road to profitability clearly. It emphasized that it takes two to three years to achieve profitability upon entering a newly legalized state. Technically, CFO Jason Park explained (edited):\n\n So, what we've said from the beginning is that DraftKings enterprise profitability will be a function of the profitability of every state that we're operating in. We acquire customers on a 2- to 3-year gross margin payback period that's sort of a truncated lifetime value (LTV) to CAC. As long as you have the conviction that we can be profitable in every state in 2 to 3 years, then the enterprise will turn profitable. (Jefferies Sports Betting & iGaming Summit)\n\nDraftKings has also emphasized many times in its past conference calls that it achieved profitability in one of its most important states New Jersey in just two years upon entry. Notably, the company also added that it's observing a similar profitability trajectory in other states. Therefore, DraftKings has made significant efforts to discuss investors' most pressing concerns and never avoided addressing them. Of course, the landscape is highly dynamic. The company highlighted that its most critical assumptions consider continued OSB and iGaming legalization. That forms the foundational basis of the company's business model. As of now, we haven't observed anything suspicious that the secular trend towards OSB and iGaming is slowing down.Goldman Sachs estimates that the OSB market could be worth $39B annually by 2033. Consumers are also moving towards online betting as mobile handle accounted for 84% of the total sports betting handle in October. The push towards OSB and iGaming legalization has gained momentum, and we don't think it would reverse course moving forward.\nTherefore, it's essential for investors to note that DraftKings is still in the early innings of its massive opportunity. The company is still ramping up in states they entered recently while moving towards profitability in earlier entries like New Jersey. Therefore, the mix is evolving, and investors should not expect the company to reach profitability in the near term.\nKeep in Mind that DraftKings is Estimated to Achieve Significant Operating Leverage\nDraftKings revenue and adjusted EBITDA mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nDraftKings adjusted EPS revision trend. Source: Seeking Alpha\nReaders can observe from the chart above that DraftKings is still estimated to grow its revenue through FY26 rapidly. Its revenue is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 29.2% through FY26. Meanwhile, it's also expected to continue gaining operating leverage significantly. Therefore, DraftKings is estimated to turn profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis from FY24.\nNevertheless, we are aware that its adjusted EPS has been revised downwards throughout 2021. Consequently, its timeline towards achieving profitability has gotten stretched further. However, we believe that the company is trading short-term profitability for long-term operating leverage. In addition, DraftKings has often highlighted that its business model is highly data-driven. Therefore, management relies strongly on its data analytics to inform its spending patterns and maintain capital discipline. Consequently, they are not just simply burning cash in the hope of gaining market share.\nIn addition, the company is counting on building a superior product and technology platform that it believes will give it a competitive advantage against its peers. Robins emphasized (edited):\n\n I think definitely convenience is important, the ease of use. So that's everything from making it simple for people by having a shared wallet across our products. They can easily navigate our products when they're in different states, and they can use the app. They can use the same account, the same wallet. It goes to having a very simple and intuitive user interface, having great service and customer support, being able to curate bets for people, based on the data that we have and personalization that our Data Science team does. I think all those things are really important. (Canaccord Genuity 2021 Digital Gaming Summit)\n\nSo, is DKNG Stock a Buy Now?\nDKNG stock EV/NTM Revenue trend.\nDKNG EV/NTM Revenue comps. Source: TIKR\nDKNG stock has undoubtedly been battered, and its valuation gap has closed with its legacy peers. It's trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 6.5x, against its mean since going public of 19.2x. Therefore, it's clear that the market has not been satisfied with the adjusted EPS revisions over the past year while the stock was trading at a premium.\nWe concur that DraftKings need to show improvement in its operating leverage moving forward. However, we also emphasized that its enterprise profitability is complicated by the mix of new and mature states. Therefore, we believe that investors should evaluate the company profitability runway on a state-by-state basis.\nIn addition, given that DraftKings is still primed to achieve significant operating leverage, we believe that its premium valuation is justified. Its valuation should also help the company acquire companies with an equity deal instead of relying on cash offers. It would allow the company to realize capital flexibility in potential M&A offers, which could intensify moving forward. We believe that the competitive landscape would likely continue to consolidate, with more competitors and consumers coalescing towards OSB and iGaming. Therefore, scale, consumer data, and the tech stack are of paramount importance. It's also where DraftKings can exercise its competitive advantage. Moreover, compared to its heavily-indebted arch-rival Flutter, DraftKings is in a net cash position, further accentuating its capital flexibility.\nWe are confident that DraftKings management would leverage its leadership in OSB and iGaming as the legalization momentum carries on. Therefore, we encourage long-term investors to capitalize on its current weakness to add exposure to the online betting leader.\nAs such, we reiterate our Buy rating on DKNG stock for long-term investors only.\nEditor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. 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