复盘2018年那次大股东抛售：腾讯会再次“腰斩”吗

海榕财富风险投研2021-04-07

周三盘后出了一个大消息，腾讯的第一大股东MIH披露：计划出售1.9亿股的腾讯股份给全球机构投资者，这笔交易价值1141亿港元，占总股本的2%，每股作价575至595港元，当于4月7日收市价629.5港元折让5.5%至8.7%。腾讯的大股东MIH是一家南非的传媒公司，在2001年腾讯生死存亡之际雪中送炭，MIH出资3200万美元从李泽楷收购了20%腾讯股份，从IDG手中收购了12.8%的...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Fred_6810
2021-04-08
Fred_6810
应该还算正常操作，95折。对市场负面影响不大。总体上持仓成本升高，应该很快创新高吧。
摸黑大大
2021-04-08
摸黑大大
腾讯港股都没怎么跌！被散户都抢光了！
- 摸黑大大:
  我的意思是腾讯会有人抢着要
- 默默前行。:
  不是，这是在一级市场成交的，二级市场哪能吃下这么大的量，上千亿啊，上百亿的交易都很少
Fred_6810
2021-04-08
Fred_6810
谁是接盘的，有知道的吗？
Fred_6810
2021-04-08
Fred_6810
不会。上次腰斩不是减持造成的
宁月1209
2021-04-08
宁月1209
这家公司的控股股东好像是工商银行哈
ro19862001
2021-04-08
ro19862001
MIH就是工商银行吧？

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176614844?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d55299682db47c1e5fa53cf9bbcc7609","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-04-07 22:47","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1176614844","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"复盘2018年那次大股东抛售：腾讯会再次“腰斩”吗","media":"海榕财富风险投研","content":"<div>\n<p>周三盘后出了一个大消息，腾讯的第一大股东MIH披露：计划出售1.9亿股的腾讯股份给全球机构投资者，这笔交易价值1141亿港元， 占总股本的2%，每股作价575至595港元，当于4月7日收市价629.5港元折让5.5%至8.7%。腾讯的大股东MIH是一家 南非的传媒公司，在2001年腾讯生死存亡之际 雪中送炭，MIH出资3200万美元 从 李泽楷 收购了20%腾讯股份，从IDG手中收购了12.8%的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1NTE2MTU2NQ==&mid=2247491052&idx=1&sn=7b0beda31b7b7bb07aa160d3fdcc0039&chksm=fbd9df5eccae56481ed5872f2ab5529bdf970399a2ef1688b15f571e033b5526177afa999476&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0407T46Vuk3s0kemSLQlb4fG&sharer_sharetime=1617802279986&sharer_shareid=fbf3e6a28882bb91c07a361d6d431142&ADUIN=694720019&ADSESSION=1617773062&ADTAG=CLIENT.QQ.5615_.0&ADPUBNO=27006#rd\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1581558799890","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>复盘2018年那次大股东抛售：腾讯会再次“腰斩”吗</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n复盘2018年那次大股东抛售：腾讯会再次“腰斩”吗\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-07 22:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1NTE2MTU2NQ==&mid=2247491052&idx=1&sn=7b0beda31b7b7bb07aa160d3fdcc0039&chksm=fbd9df5eccae56481ed5872f2ab5529bdf970399a2ef1688b15f571e033b5526177afa999476&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0407T46Vuk3s0kemSLQlb4fG&sharer_sharetime=1617802279986&sharer_shareid=fbf3e6a28882bb91c07a361d6d431142&ADUIN=694720019&ADSESSION=1617773062&ADTAG=CLIENT.QQ.5615_.0&ADPUBNO=27006#rd><strong>海榕财富风险投研</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周三盘后出了一个大消息，腾讯的第一大股东MIH披露：计划出售1.9亿股的腾讯股份给全球机构投资者，这笔交易价值1141亿港元， 占总股本的2%，每股作价575至595港元，当于4月7日收市价629.5港元折让5.5%至8.7%。腾讯的大股东MIH是一家 南非的传媒公司，在2001年腾讯生死存亡之际 雪中送炭，MIH出资3200万美元 从 李泽楷 收购了20%腾讯股份，从IDG手中收购了12.8%的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1NTE2MTU2NQ==&mid=2247491052&idx=1&sn=7b0beda31b7b7bb07aa160d3fdcc0039&chksm=fbd9df5eccae56481ed5872f2ab5529bdf970399a2ef1688b15f571e033b5526177afa999476&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0407T46Vuk3s0kemSLQlb4fG&sharer_sharetime=1617802279986&sharer_shareid=fbf3e6a28882bb91c07a361d6d431142&ADUIN=694720019&ADSESSION=1617773062&ADTAG=CLIENT.QQ.5615_.0&ADPUBNO=27006#rd\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"00700","symbol_name":"腾讯控股","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1NTE2MTU2NQ==&mid=2247491052&idx=1&sn=7b0beda31b7b7bb07aa160d3fdcc0039&chksm=fbd9df5eccae56481ed5872f2ab5529bdf970399a2ef1688b15f571e033b5526177afa999476&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0407T46Vuk3s0kemSLQlb4fG&sharer_sharetime=1617802279986&sharer_shareid=fbf3e6a28882bb91c07a361d6d431142&ADUIN=694720019&ADSESSION=1617773062&ADTAG=CLIENT.QQ.5615_.0&ADPUBNO=27006#rd","article_id":"1176614844","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/d55299682db47c1e5fa53cf9bbcc7609"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176614844","pubTimestamp":1617806877,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1581558799890","name":"海榕财富风险投研"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"大家很容易低估重仓持有一个公司的难度。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股"},"translate_title":"Resume the selling of major shareholders in 2018: Will Tencent \"halve\" again","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef1f6eafaccaaaa8b08472b6281b99c","symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9},"content_text":"周三盘后出了一个大消息，腾讯的第一大股东MIH披露：计划出售1.9亿股的腾讯股份给全球机构投资者，这笔交易价值1141亿港元， 占总股本的2%，每股作价575至595港元，当于4月7日收市价629.5港元折让5.5%至8.7%。腾讯的大股东MIH是一家 南非的传媒公司，在2001年腾讯生死存亡之际 雪中送炭，MIH出资3200万美元 从 李泽楷 收购了20%腾讯股份，从IDG手中收购了12.8%的股份，又从腾讯创始团队中收购了13.5%的股份，最后以接近50%的持股成为腾讯第一大股东。在腾讯 2004 年港股市场IPO的时候，MIH的股份稀释为 35.7%，上市后MIH连续持有腾讯14年 没有减持一股，非常坚定的看好腾讯的发展, 用张坤的话大家很容易低估重仓持有一个公司的难度。在2018年3月23日， MIH 第一次宣布减持腾讯2%的股份， 同时承诺3年内不再减持腾讯股份 。 回顾一下2018年3月23日的交易情况， 腾讯当天股价低开 7.85%， 然后低开高走 ，尾盘下跌 4.45%，这一天腾讯单只股票成交额破千亿 ，破了港股历史记录。腾讯的大股东披露这个消息，很大概率已经和机构投资者签订好了大宗转让协议  ，这种体量的交易 不会是通过二级市场完成 。上次MIH减持后 ，腾讯股价从 3月份的416跌到11月份的250， 跌幅幅度达到 40%，有些投资者非常担心 会不会历史重演。我简单复下盘 ：2017年腾讯营收增速非常快，以“王者荣耀”为主的游戏板块，驱动业绩大涨，市场也给出了高估值，当时的市盈率超过60倍。投资者都说大象也能起舞，说明当时投资者对腾讯有很多正面预期。接下来发生四件事  ：游戏体量大了以后 增长放缓 ，前期预期太高 杀估值。监管层又推出了限制游戏版号的政策，这个政策加重了投资者对腾讯的负面预期。2018年抖音大火，全民刷抖音，不少投资者认为抖音还伤害到了腾讯社交的基本盘。国内货币环境 去杠杆，A股 中证500跌到1倍PB。从估值看这次减持的估值没有上次高 ，上次MIH减持的时候估值是45PE ,13倍PS , 现在腾讯的估值是 32PE,11倍PS. 18年股价跌这么多  最主要的是上次腾讯跌这么多是连续遇到上述几个利空 ，和大股东减持没有直接的关系 。2015年的A股股灾是比较容易逃顶的，2018年的阴跌是非常难避开的，如果一个投资者避开了2018年 40%的股价回调 ，大概率也会错过后面 2019,2020年  200%的上涨 ，投资都是盈亏同源的 。腾讯的估值放在全市场总体现在不算贵的，和18年的市场不算一样， 那时候贵州茅台是30倍PE , 海天味业 40倍PE , 现在贵州茅台55PE , 海天味业86倍PE , 腾讯还是32倍PE ，腾讯算比较便宜的优质成长股了，这次股价如果大幅度回调就是 黄金的上车机会 。再说说今天的市场：高瓴资本大幅度减持国内次高端白酒公司 水井坊的股份 ，此前高瓴资本 的天津礼仁卓越长青基金持有水井坊452万股 ，现在已经退出10大股东 ， 易方达张坤也继续减持了水井坊。国内防水龙头 东方雨虹发布公告，预计第一季度净利润为2.62亿-3.01亿元，同比增长100%-130% ，主要原因是1季度是防水行业的淡季，加上去年基数比较低 。三棵树发布定增预案，准备募资37亿元人民币。三棵树这家公司国内公募很少投资，主要是外资持股比较重， 这次定增预估也会有不少海外机构参加，三棵树的估值一直都很高 ，主要原因是涂料这个行业在他们国家出过大牛股 。今天中国太保A股大跌 4.82%， 主要原因是 港股有资金在砸 H股 ，砸盘具体原因 不清楚 。但不用太悲观 ，中国太保 估值接近历史底部 ，2020年 披露的内含价值 增长率 20%以上，投资收益率也不错 。长期看 中国太保的股价 受益于内含价值的不断增长 ，底部会不断太高的。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":348021100,"gmtCreate":1617870671600,"gmtModify":1617870671600,"author":{"id":"3563140991934227","authorId":"3563140991934227","authorIdStr":"3563140991934227","name":"Fred_6810","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe236f23155302a4dcecbf04d2e9040","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563140991934227"},"htmlText":"应该还算正常操作，95折。 对市场负面影响不大。&nbsp;总体上持仓成本升高，应该很快创新高吧。","listText":"应该还算正常操作，95折。 对市场负面影响不大。&nbsp;总体上持仓成本升高，应该很快创新高吧。","text":"应该还算正常操作，95折。 对市场负面影响不大。 总体上持仓成本升高，应该很快创新高吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348021100","repostId":1176614844,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":341780636,"gmtCreate":1617855841825,"gmtModify":1617855841825,"author":{"id":"3576498615254643","authorId":"3576498615254643","authorIdStr":"3576498615254643","name":"摸黑大大","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/676076d3ba3c26db2e99ea31849310dd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576498615254643"},"htmlText":"腾讯港股都没怎么跌！被散户都抢光了！","listText":"腾讯港股都没怎么跌！被散户都抢光了！","text":"腾讯港股都没怎么跌！被散户都抢光了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341780636","repostId":1176614844,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3985306,"gmtCreate":1617861330051,"gmtModify":1617861330051,"authorId":3576498615254643,"author":{"id":3576498615254643,"authorId":3576498615254643,"name":"摸黑大大","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/676076d3ba3c26db2e99ea31849310dd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":341780636,"type":1,"supId":3985264,"prevId":0,"content":"我的意思是腾讯会有人抢着要","text":"我的意思是腾讯会有人抢着要","html":"我的意思是腾讯会有人抢着要"},{"id":3985264,"gmtCreate":1617860572340,"gmtModify":1617860572340,"authorId":3473305718180394,"author":{"id":3473305718180394,"authorId":3473305718180394,"name":"默默前行。","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b087b9aa82d8d807d2d8ee904cf364f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":341780636,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"不是，这是在一级市场成交的，二级市场哪能吃下这么大的量，上千亿啊，上百亿的交易都很少","text":"不是，这是在一级市场成交的，二级市场哪能吃下这么大的量，上千亿啊，上百亿的交易都很少","html":"不是，这是在一级市场成交的，二级市场哪能吃下这么大的量，上千亿啊，上百亿的交易都很少"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":341737791,"gmtCreate":1617855078613,"gmtModify":1617855078613,"author":{"id":"3563140991934227","authorId":"3563140991934227","authorIdStr":"3563140991934227","name":"Fred_6810","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe236f23155302a4dcecbf04d2e9040","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563140991934227"},"htmlText":"谁是接盘的，有知道的吗？","listText":"谁是接盘的，有知道的吗？","text":"谁是接盘的，有知道的吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341737791","repostId":1176614844,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":341737694,"gmtCreate":1617855033918,"gmtModify":1617855033918,"author":{"id":"3563140991934227","authorId":"3563140991934227","authorIdStr":"3563140991934227","name":"Fred_6810","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe236f23155302a4dcecbf04d2e9040","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563140991934227"},"htmlText":"不会。上次腰斩不是减持造成的","listText":"不会。上次腰斩不是减持造成的","text":"不会。上次腰斩不是减持造成的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341737694","repostId":1176614844,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":341734652,"gmtCreate":1617854891276,"gmtModify":1617854891276,"author":{"id":"3557429327099820","authorId":"3557429327099820","authorIdStr":"3557429327099820","name":"宁月1209","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a63fab32e61e66ab09d87045ae748a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3557429327099820"},"htmlText":"这家公司的控股股东好像是工商银行哈","listText":"这家公司的控股股东好像是工商银行哈","text":"这家公司的控股股东好像是工商银行哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341734652","repostId":1176614844,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":341734967,"gmtCreate":1617854855259,"gmtModify":1617857160414,"author":{"id":"3555022444956800","authorId":"3555022444956800","authorIdStr":"3555022444956800","name":"ro19862001","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555022444956800"},"htmlText":"MIH就是工商银行吧？","listText":"MIH就是工商银行吧？","text":"MIH就是工商银行吧？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341734967","repostId":1176614844,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":53,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.26.4","shortVersion":"4.26.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1176614844"}