大摩：美联储加息对大类资产意味着什么？

华尔街见闻2021-12-19

作者：赵颖近期，摩根士丹利在报告中指出，美联储转向鹰派，正以更快的速度缩紧货币政策。大摩将首次加息预期提前到2022年9月，并预计2023年底前累计加息125个基点。摩根士丹利认为，这并不会改变大局，而是步伐上的一个调整。大摩基于美国经济强劲增长、通胀高企和美联储一开始的态度极其鹰派的假设，在报告中表达了收紧货币政策时间缩短、美元指数（DXY）保持多头趋势、看跌黄金、看涨能源、相对于新兴市场更...

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精彩评论

Hing On Huat
2021-12-19
Hing On Huat
[开心]
- JanetXinru:
  jb
AdelineLing
2021-12-19
AdelineLing
留意
leema123
2021-12-19
leema123
[无语]
T0000023454
2021-12-19
T0000023454
加息要比普遍预期快的多
mjng
2021-12-19
mjng
学习
- CMChai100:
  学到了什么？

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647626><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：赵颖\n近期，摩根士丹利在报告中指出，美联储转向鹰派，正以更快的速度缩紧货币政策。大摩将首次加息预期提前到2022年9月，并预计2023年底前累计加息125个基点。\n摩根士丹利认为，这并不会改变大局，而是步伐上的一个调整。大摩基于美国经济强劲增长、通胀高企和美联储一开始的态度极其鹰派的假设，在报告中表达了收紧货币政策时间缩短、美元指数（DXY）保持多头趋势、看跌黄金、看涨能源、相对于新兴市场更...</p>\n\n<a 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货币紧缩时期各类资产表现\n大摩预计在一个经济良好增长而政策较为紧缩的世界中：\n\n核心利率和实际债券收益率更高；\n公司债和政府债券等资产表现较好；\n欧洲和日本股市相对于其他地区的回报率更高，因为全球经济增长强劲，受美联储紧缩政策影响较小；\n美国大盘防御性优质股票表现较好；美元走强；\n石油走强，黄金走弱，经济增长，石油需求增加，而加息时黄金承压。\n\n以史为鉴，资产有什么表现？\n随着美联储反应和利率路径的重大变化，大摩称应为更高的利率定位投资组合。\n大摩对最终利率的预期不变，将2022年第四季度10年期美债收益率预测保持在2.10%。\n大摩分析师预计，到2022年第四季度，两年期美债收益率将达到1.25%，比之前的预期高出25个基点。\n\n大摩回顾过去加息周期中的跨资产表现和估值，指出了以下五点：\n1. 美联储加息一个月后，股票回报基本为负，能源、电信和公用事业表现优于大盘。此后回报率趋于恢复，尤其是在新兴市场。\n2.DXY在加息中反弹，可能是由于市场预期更高利率。美元在加息后横盘移动，并在六个月后走弱。\n3. 加息推高债券收益率，而美国国债和德国国债的总回报率则下降。\n4. 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