The Financial Crisis the World Forgot

NewYork Times2021-03-17

The Federal Reserve crossed red lines to rescue markets in March 2020. Is there enough momentum to fix the weaknesses the episode exposed? By the middle of March 2020 a sense of anxiety pervaded the ...

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精彩评论

kuehlapis
2021-03-17
kuehlapis
good to bear this in mind
Francis1977
2021-03-17
Francis1977
Be careful.
- kuehlapis:
  wise words
SolidSnake
2021-03-17
SolidSnake
Let’s be prudent and have a strategy
CTM
2021-03-17
CTM
Very bad
- TohKokMeng79:
  coins
- TohKokMeng79:
  coins
- TohKokMeng79:
  worst
- TohKokMeng79:
  just meet our time
- TohKokMeng79:
  sian..bad times
Jkcubz
2021-03-17
Jkcubz
Hi
- 股神徒孙:
  Bye
HuiEr
2021-03-17
HuiEr
[捂脸]
- HueiKwang:
  [开心]
- weichwen:
  Ha

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Is there enough momentum to fix the weaknesses the episode exposed?\n\nBy the middle of March 2020 a sense of anxiety pervaded the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/business/economy/fed-2020-financial-crisis-covid.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/business/economy/fed-2020-financial-crisis-covid.html","article_id":"1176435771","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176435771","pubTimestamp":1615973979,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1605590967916","name":"NewYork Times"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The Federal Reserve crossed red lines to rescue markets in March 2020. Is there enough momentum to f","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"nytimes.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"世界遗忘的金融危机","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"The Federal Reserve crossed red lines to rescue markets in March 2020. Is there enough momentum to fix the weaknesses the episode exposed?\n\nBy the middle of March 2020 a sense of anxiety pervaded the Federal Reserve. The fast-unfolding coronavirus pandemic was rippling through global markets in dangerous ways.\nTrading in Treasurys — the government securities that are considered among the safest assets in the world, and the bedrock of the entire bond market — had become disjointed as panicked investors tried to sell everything they owned to raise cash. Buyers were scarce. The Treasury market had never broken down so badly, even in the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.\nThe Fed called an emergency meeting on March 15, a Sunday. Lorie Logan, who oversees the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s asset portfolio, summarized the brewing crisis. She and her colleagues dialed into a conference from the fortresslike New York Fed headquarters, unable to travel to Washington given the meeting’s impromptu nature and the spreading virus. Regional bank presidents assembled across America stared back from the monitor. Washington-based governors were arrayed in a socially distanced ring around the Fed Board’s mahogany table.\nMs. Logan delivered a blunt assessment: While the Fed had been buying government-backed bonds the week before to soothe the volatile Treasury market, market contacts said it hadn’t been enough. To fix things, the Fed mightneed to buy much more. And fast.\nFed officials are an argumentative bunch, and they fiercely debated the other issue before them that day, whether to cut interest rates to near-zero.\nBut, in a testament to the gravity of the breakdown in the government bond market, there was no dissent about whether the central bank needed to stem what was happening by stepping in as a buyer. That afternoon, the Fedannounced an enormous purchase program, promising to make $500 billion in government bond purchases and to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed debt.\nIt wasn’t the central bank’s first effort to stop the unfolding disaster, nor would it be the last. But it was a clear signal that the 2020 meltdown echoed the 2008 crisis in seriousness and complexity. Where the housing crisis and ensuing crash took years to unfold, the coronavirus panic had struck in weeks.\nAs March wore on, each hour incubating a new calamity, policymakers were forced tocross boundaries, break precedentsand make new uses of the U.S. government’s vast powers to save domestic markets, keep cash flowing abroad and prevent a full-blown financial crisis from compounding a public health tragedy.\nThe rescue worked, so it is easy to forget the peril America’s investors and businesses faced a year ago. But the systemwide weaknesses that were exposed last March remain, and are now under the microscope of Washington policymakers.\nHow It Started\nFinancial markets began to wobble on Feb. 21, 2020, when Italian authorities announced localized lockdowns.\nAt first, the sell-off in risky investments was normal — a rational “flight to safety” while the global economic outlook was rapidly darkening. Stocks plummeted, demand for many corporate bonds disappeared, and people poured into super-secure investments, like U.S. Treasury bonds.\nOn March 3, as market jitters intensified, the Fedcut interest ratesto about 1 percent — its first emergency move since the 2008 financial crisis. Some analysts chidedthe Fed for overreacting, and others asked an obvious question: What could the Fed realistically do in the face of a public health threat?\n“We do recognize that a rate cut will not reduce the rate of infection, it won’t fix a broken supply chain,” Chair Jerome H. Powell said at a news conference, explaining that the Fed was doing what it could to keep credit cheap and available.\nBut the health disaster was quickly metastasizing into a market crisis.\nLockdowns in Italy deepened during the second week of March, and oil prices plummeted as a price war raged, sending tremors across stock, currency and commodity markets. Then, something weird started to happen: Instead of snapping up Treasury bonds, arguably the world’s safest investment, investors began trying to sell them.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt — which usually drops when investors seek safe harbor — started to rise on March 10, suggesting investors didn’t want safe assets. They wanted cold, hard cash, and they were trying to sell anything and everything to get it.\nHow It Worsened\nReligion works through churches. Democracy through congresses and parliaments. Capitalism is an idea made real through a series of relationships between debtors and creditors, risk and reward. And by last March 11, those equations were no longer adding up.\nThat was the day the World Health Organizationofficially declaredthe virus outbreak a pandemic, and the morning on which it was becoming clear that a sell-off had spiraled into a panic.\nThe Fed began to roll out measure after measure in a bid to soothe conditions, first offeringhuge temporary infusions of cashto banks, thenaccelerating plansto buy Treasury bonds as that market swung out of whack.\nBut by Friday, March 13, government bond markets were just one of many problems.\nInvestors had been pulling their cash from prime money market mutual funds, where they park it to earn a slightly higher return, for days. But those outflows began to accelerate, prompting the funds themselves to pull back sharply from short-term corporate debt markets as they raced to return money to investors. Banks that serve as market conduits were less willing than usual to buy and hold new securities, even just temporarily. That made it harder to sell everything, be it a company bond or Treasury debt.\nThe Fed’s announcement after its March 15 emergency meeting — that it would slash rates and buy bonds in the most critical markets — was an attempt to get things under control.\nBut Mr. Powell worried that the fix would fall short as short- and long-term debt of all kinds became hard to sell. He approached Andreas Lehnert, director of the Fed’s financial stability division, in the Washington boardroom after the meeting and asked him to prepare emergency lending programs, which the central bank had used in 2008 to serve as a support system to unraveling markets.\nMr. Lehnert went straight to a musty office, where he communicated with Fed technicians, economists and lawyers via instant messenger and video chats — in-person meetings were already restricted — and worked late into the night to get the paperwork ready.\nStarting that Tuesday morning, after another day of market carnage, the central bank began to unveil the steady drip of rescue programs Mr. Lehnert and his colleagues had been working on: one to buy upshort-term corporate debtand another to keep funding flowing to key banks. Shortlybefore midnighton Wednesday, March 18, the Fed announced a program to rescue embattled money market funds by offering to effectively take hard-to-sell securities off their hands.\nBut by the end of that week, everything was a mess.Foreign central banks and corporations were offloading U.S. debt, partly to raise dollars companies needed to pay interest and other bills; hedge funds werenixing a highly leveraged tradethat had broken down as the market went haywire, dumping Treasurys into the choked market.Corporate bondandcommercial real estate debt marketslooked dicey as companies faced credit rating downgrades and as hotels and malls saw business prospects tank.\nThe world’s most powerful central bank was throwing solutions at the markets as rapidly as it could, and it wasn’t enough.\nHow They Fixed It\nThe next weekend, March 21 and 22, was a frenzy. Officials dialed into calls from home, completing still-secret program outlines and negotiating with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s team to establish a layer of insurance to protect the efforts against credit losses. After a tormented 48-hour hustle, the Fed sent out a mammoth news release on Monday morning.\nHeadlineshit newswiresat 8 a.m., well before American markets opened. The Fed promised tobuy an unlimited amountof Treasury debt and to purchase commercial mortgage-backed securities — efforts to save the most central markets.\nThe announcement also pushed the central bank into uncharted territory. The Fed was established in 1913 toserve as a lender of last resortto troubled banks. On March 23, it pledged to funnel help far beyond that financial core. The Fed said it would buy corporate debt and help to get loans to midsize businesses for the first time ever.\nIt finally worked. The dash for cash turned around starting that day.\nThe March 23 efforts took an approach that Mr. Lehnert referred to internally as “covering the waterfront.” Fed economists had discerned which capital marketswere tied to huge numbers of jobsand made sure that every one of them had a Fed support program.\nOn April 9, officials put final pieces of the strategy into play. Backed by a huge pot of insurance money from a rescue package just passed by Congress — lawmakers had handed the Treasury up to$454 billion— they announced that they would expand already-announced efforts and set up another to help funnel credit to states and big cities.\nThe Fed’s 2008 rescue effort had been widely criticized as a bank bailout. The 2020 redux was to rescue everything.\nThe Fed, along with the Treasury, most likely saved the nation from a crippling financial crisis that would have made it harder for businesses to survive, rebound and rehire, intensifying the economic damage the coronavirus went on to inflict. Many of the programs have since ended or are scheduled to do so, and markets are functioning fine.\nBut there’s no guarantee that the calm will prove permanent.\n“The financial system remains vulnerable” to a repeat of last March’s sweeping disaster as “the underlying structures and mechanisms that gave rise to the turmoil are still in place,” the Financial Stability Board, a global oversight body, wrote in a meltdownpost-mortem.\nWhat Comes Next\nThe question policymakers and lawmakers are now grappling with is how to fix those vulnerabilities, which could portend problems for the Treasury market and money market funds if investors get seriously spooked again.\nThe Fed’s rescue ramps up the urgency to safeguard the system. Central bankers set a precedent by saving previously untouched markets, raising the possibility that investors will take risks, assuming the central bank will always step in if things get bad enough.\nThere’s some bipartisan appetite for reform: Trump-era regulators began a review of money markets, and Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen has said she will focus on financial oversight. But change won’t be easy. Protests in the street helped to galvanize financial reform after 2008. There is little popular outrage over the March 2020 meltdown, both because it was set off by a health crisis — not bad banker behavior — and because it was resolved quickly.\nIndustry playersare already mobilizing a lobbying effort, and they may find allies in resisting regulation, including among lawmakers.\n“I would point out that money market funds have been remarkably stable and successful,” Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, said during aJan. 19 hearing.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":324178662,"gmtCreate":1615978739156,"gmtModify":1703495812885,"author":{"id":"3574029017802033","authorId":"3574029017802033","name":"kuehlapis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/732ffeea71fc0732b84f029cc0e8263e","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574029017802033","authorIdStr":"3574029017802033"},"htmlText":"good to bear this in mind","listText":"good to bear this in mind","text":"good to bear this in mind","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324178662","repostId":1176435771,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":324144812,"gmtCreate":1615978216536,"gmtModify":1703495803718,"author":{"id":"3563665942813728","authorId":"3563665942813728","name":"Francis1977","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41e57e9c6370943666fc4df69655b8f","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563665942813728","authorIdStr":"3563665942813728"},"htmlText":"Be careful.","listText":"Be careful.","text":"Be careful.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324144812","repostId":1176435771,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3816638,"gmtCreate":1615978690954,"gmtModify":1635753180128,"authorId":3574029017802033,"author":{"id":3574029017802033,"idStr":"3574029017802033","authorId":3574029017802033,"name":"kuehlapis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/732ffeea71fc0732b84f029cc0e8263e","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":324144812,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"wise words","text":"wise words","html":"wise 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strategy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324141758","repostId":1176435771,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":324186971,"gmtCreate":1615974622593,"gmtModify":1703495741682,"author":{"id":"3569552666872019","authorId":"3569552666872019","name":"CTM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93556a1f21f4b45bb0159f5eba636186","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569552666872019","authorIdStr":"3569552666872019"},"htmlText":"Very bad","listText":"Very bad","text":"Very 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