商业地产是倒逼美联储重启QE的“最后一根稻草”吗？

华尔街见闻2023-04-17

假如商业地产泡沫再次破裂，距离美联储转向宽松或许也不远了。越来越多的华尔街分析师们开始提出，商业地产将成为美国经济的“定时炸弹”，这关系到的不仅是大小银行，还有广泛的美国经济，而一旦商业地产“暴雷”，紧随其后的很可能是美联储的再次QE（量化宽松）。上周，摩根士丹利和美国银行不约而同在报告中警告商业地产的风险，前者指出美国写字楼和零售商业地产可能将出现30-40%的回撤，而后者的策略师——被称为...

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精彩评论

bestww
2023-04-18
bestww
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
慧_4909
2023-04-17
慧_4909
快爆快涨！
haha119
2023-04-17
haha119
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
haha119
2023-04-17
haha119
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
haha119
2023-04-17
haha119
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
Ghost666
2023-04-17
Ghost666
重开QE不见得，但是金融风暴是肯定的

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商业地产借贷占GDP的比例远远低于上世纪80年代和2000年的两个峰值，商业抵押贷款支持证券（CMBS）市场的承销标准也比2008年之前的好……但是，CMBS在商业地产贷款中所占份额很小，尤其是与（主要是区域性）银行相比，后者在办公、零售、酒店和工业贷款方面的风险敞口更大。自2015年以来，区域性银行占银行商业地产贷款增量的 90%。与此同时，商业地产，尤其是写字楼的价值正在“一泻千里”。正如华尔街见闻稍早时候曾提及，曼哈顿写字楼空置率达到了历史最高的16%，旧金山的写字楼空置率则更是高达30%。一项来自斯坦福大学、芝加哥大学和墨西哥自治理工学院的研究显示，在新冠疫情之后，纽约正在经历因远程工作趋势而导致的人均年度支出最大减少。地产信息商Green Street估计，去年写字楼的评估价值下降了25%，是所有房地产类型中的最大评估下降。自2020年以来，写字楼租金增长一直远低于其他房地产类型，甚至低于零售业；写字楼租赁活动已回落至疫情低点附近，销售额2022年以来下降了66％。Cembalest测算指出，如果贷款在当前环境下到期，即使对资本化率、贷款价值比（LTV）和净营业收入（NOI）假设进行轻微的改变，也可能迫使房地产所有者在当前环境下筹集大量昂贵的次级融资：7.5%的债务成本，40%的LTV和-1%的年化NOI下降，最终导致9.75%的资本利率和未来2-3年内写字楼价值比目前水平下降40%。摩根士丹利的研究指出，到2025年，约有价值1.35-1.46 万亿美元 (30-32%) 的商业地产债务到期，其中银行持有约42-56%的到期债务。银行既是资产的直接贷方，也是机构和非机构CMBS的购买者。银行持有每年到期债务的36-64%，占机构CMBS的近一半和非机构CMBS投资者的10-15%。因此，在面临股权价值全面损失的情况下，股权投资者一直在减少写字楼的敞口也就不足为奇。但不幸的是，对于商业地产贷款人，也就是那些拥有大量商业地产贷款的小银行来说，退出可能不是一件易事，尤其是占其商业地产贷款总额约20%的写字楼风险敞口。最后，Cembalest还表示，根据摩根大通投资银行进行的一项银行压力测试，假设写字楼贷款拖欠率为21%，零售商业地产贷款拖欠率为15%，两者的回收率约为60%，损失发生在3-5年内（极为保守的假设）。结果是：一些较小的区域性银行的一级资本最多会减少30-40个基点。虽然这看起来不是很大，但这个分析假设2022年的拨备前收入水平将在3-5年的损失经历中持续存在。由于客户存款成本的提高和可能出现的经济衰退，许多银行的拨备前收入可能会下降。因此，估计对资本的打击可能要大得多。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":651864662,"gmtCreate":1681764572457,"gmtModify":1681764573905,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651864662","repostId":1176434265,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":651860352,"gmtCreate":1681745976176,"gmtModify":1681745978152,"author":{"id":"3515586475760605","authorId":"3515586475760605","name":"慧_4909","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc2ea5aee7245d4cc04ee6d0fc60efe","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"快爆快涨！","listText":"快爆快涨！","text":"快爆快涨！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651860352","repostId":1176434265,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":651884988,"gmtCreate":1681744483745,"gmtModify":1681745524220,"author":{"id":"3571820697523930","authorId":"3571820697523930","name":"haha119","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651884988","repostId":1176434265,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":651885438,"gmtCreate":1681744419525,"gmtModify":1681745524219,"author":{"id":"3571820697523930","authorId":"3571820697523930","name":"haha119","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651885438","repostId":1176434265,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":651885185,"gmtCreate":1681744366847,"gmtModify":1681745524284,"author":{"id":"3571820697523930","authorId":"3571820697523930","name":"haha119","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651885185","repostId":1176434265,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":651886520,"gmtCreate":1681744108460,"gmtModify":1681744110140,"author":{"id":"3493200893098586","authorId":"3493200893098586","name":"Ghost666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5162e5cda227b96bbc0e0c0b63be00","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"重开QE不见得，但是金融风暴是肯定的","listText":"重开QE不见得，但是金融风暴是肯定的","text":"重开QE不见得，但是金融风暴是肯定的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651886520","repostId":1176434265,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":8,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":5,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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