Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell

Market Watch2021-09-26

It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the ...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

LEEPK
2021-09-27
LEEPK
like
SamYYL
2021-09-27
SamYYL
Like
- 滚股怪:
  Ok
Residue
2021-09-27
Residue
Historically stock market is filled with unrealised guaranteed expectations though statistics analysis is a must 😎
- 滚股怪:
  Wow
bryanckc
2021-09-27
bryanckc
Like
小虎一飞冲天
2021-09-27
小虎一飞冲天
Like pls. Thanks.
- TeikLeong:
  ok
WCS1981
2021-09-27
WCS1981
Always do own due diligence.
- Rookie22:
  Yes correct. Dont listen to others

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So double-check the data before you buy or sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-26 11:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page><strong>Market Watch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page","article_id":"1175726457","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175726457","pubTimestamp":1632626757,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1616996754749","name":"Market Watch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for tw","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"观点：市场分析师对股票下一步走向无法达成一致。所以在你买或卖之前要仔细检查数据","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. 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That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.\nIt can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. 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So double-check the data before you buy or sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175726457","media":"Market Watch","summary":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for tw","content":"<p>It’s an urgent question, since the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.</p>\n<p>Is it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?</p>\n<p>The latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd20c01571a824c8113089a65b814bb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>There is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.</p>\n<p>To help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.</p>\n<p>A summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&amp;P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65016b28c482526ac92a5d6035ba9ed9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>These findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”</p>\n<p>There’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.</p>\n<p>It can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.</p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-26 11:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page><strong>Market Watch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175726457","content_text":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.\nIs it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?\nThe latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. Just 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.\n\nThere is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.\nTo help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and one year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.\nA summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.\n\nThese findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”\nThere’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.\nIt can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":866937370,"gmtCreate":1632720549190,"gmtModify":1632798304960,"author":{"id":"4089205014499330","authorId":"4089205014499330","name":"SamYYL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c38b79dfd54364065e7068bc7e80dc9f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089205014499330","authorIdStr":"4089205014499330"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866937370","repostId":1175726457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175726457","pubTimestamp":1632626757,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175726457?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 11:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175726457","media":"Market Watch","summary":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for tw","content":"<p>It’s an urgent question, since the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.</p>\n<p>Is it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?</p>\n<p>The latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd20c01571a824c8113089a65b814bb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>There is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.</p>\n<p>To help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.</p>\n<p>A summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&amp;P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65016b28c482526ac92a5d6035ba9ed9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>These findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”</p>\n<p>There’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.</p>\n<p>It can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.</p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-26 11:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page><strong>Market Watch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175726457","content_text":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.\nIs it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?\nThe latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. Just 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.\n\nThere is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.\nTo help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and one year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.\nA summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.\n\nThese findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”\nThere’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.\nIt can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6011563,"gmtCreate":1632724737321,"gmtModify":1634784607298,"authorId":4091089381144950,"author":{"id":4091089381144950,"idStr":"4091089381144950","authorId":4091089381144950,"name":"滚股怪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67621b4133ca0db91bff9766152a448","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":866937370,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":866043672,"gmtCreate":1632715666696,"gmtModify":1632798343216,"author":{"id":"4094698472251250","authorId":"4094698472251250","name":"Residue","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3007355f2105f2f9a930d32ec14fc091","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4094698472251250","authorIdStr":"4094698472251250"},"htmlText":"Historically stock market is filled with unrealised guaranteed expectations though statistics analysis is a must 😎","listText":"Historically stock market is filled with unrealised guaranteed expectations though statistics analysis is a must 😎","text":"Historically stock market is filled with unrealised guaranteed expectations though statistics analysis is a must 😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866043672","repostId":1175726457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175726457","pubTimestamp":1632626757,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175726457?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 11:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175726457","media":"Market Watch","summary":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for tw","content":"<p>It’s an urgent question, since the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.</p>\n<p>Is it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?</p>\n<p>The latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd20c01571a824c8113089a65b814bb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>There is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.</p>\n<p>To help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.</p>\n<p>A summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&amp;P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65016b28c482526ac92a5d6035ba9ed9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>These findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”</p>\n<p>There’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.</p>\n<p>It can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.</p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-26 11:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page><strong>Market Watch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175726457","content_text":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.\nIs it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?\nThe latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. Just 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.\n\nThere is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.\nTo help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and one year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.\nA summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.\n\nThese findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”\nThere’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.\nIt can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6012665,"gmtCreate":1632732798107,"gmtModify":1634784523390,"authorId":4091089381144950,"author":{"id":4091089381144950,"idStr":"4091089381144950","authorId":4091089381144950,"name":"滚股怪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67621b4133ca0db91bff9766152a448","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":866043672,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Wow","text":"Wow","html":"Wow"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":866061514,"gmtCreate":1632713123838,"gmtModify":1632798360524,"author":{"id":"3569900814433914","authorId":"3569900814433914","name":"bryanckc","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569900814433914","authorIdStr":"3569900814433914"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866061514","repostId":1175726457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175726457","pubTimestamp":1632626757,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175726457?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 11:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175726457","media":"Market Watch","summary":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for tw","content":"<p>It’s an urgent question, since the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.</p>\n<p>Is it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?</p>\n<p>The latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd20c01571a824c8113089a65b814bb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>There is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.</p>\n<p>To help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.</p>\n<p>A summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&amp;P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65016b28c482526ac92a5d6035ba9ed9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>These findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”</p>\n<p>There’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.</p>\n<p>It can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.</p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-26 11:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page><strong>Market Watch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175726457","content_text":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.\nIs it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?\nThe latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. Just 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.\n\nThere is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.\nTo help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and one year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.\nA summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.\n\nThese findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”\nThere’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.\nIt can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":866035621,"gmtCreate":1632710740563,"gmtModify":1632798380116,"author":{"id":"3582098623642517","authorId":"3582098623642517","name":"小虎一飞冲天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a55a61195830e019abf5d3cc69681b9","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582098623642517","authorIdStr":"3582098623642517"},"htmlText":"Like pls. Thanks.","listText":"Like pls. Thanks.","text":"Like pls. Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866035621","repostId":1175726457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175726457","pubTimestamp":1632626757,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175726457?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 11:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175726457","media":"Market Watch","summary":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for tw","content":"<p>It’s an urgent question, since the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.</p>\n<p>Is it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?</p>\n<p>The latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd20c01571a824c8113089a65b814bb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>There is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.</p>\n<p>To help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.</p>\n<p>A summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&amp;P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65016b28c482526ac92a5d6035ba9ed9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>These findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”</p>\n<p>There’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.</p>\n<p>It can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.</p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-26 11:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page><strong>Market Watch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175726457","content_text":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.\nIs it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?\nThe latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. Just 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.\n\nThere is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.\nTo help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and one year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.\nA summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.\n\nThese findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”\nThere’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.\nIt can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6009800,"gmtCreate":1632711438009,"gmtModify":1634784763777,"authorId":3581504913688063,"author":{"id":3581504913688063,"idStr":"3581504913688063","authorId":3581504913688063,"name":"TeikLeong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":866035621,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":868775357,"gmtCreate":1632708593079,"gmtModify":1632798403477,"author":{"id":"3582764273979695","authorId":"3582764273979695","name":"WCS1981","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98e28d5b1695429dd1657ecc78f93f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582764273979695","authorIdStr":"3582764273979695"},"htmlText":"Always do own due diligence.&nbsp;","listText":"Always do own due diligence.&nbsp;","text":"Always do own due diligence.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868775357","repostId":1175726457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175726457","pubTimestamp":1632626757,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175726457?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 11:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175726457","media":"Market Watch","summary":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for tw","content":"<p>It’s an urgent question, since the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.</p>\n<p>Is it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?</p>\n<p>The latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd20c01571a824c8113089a65b814bb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>There is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.</p>\n<p>To help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.</p>\n<p>A summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&amp;P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65016b28c482526ac92a5d6035ba9ed9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>These findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”</p>\n<p>There’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.</p>\n<p>It can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.</p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-26 11:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page><strong>Market Watch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175726457","content_text":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.\nIs it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?\nThe latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. Just 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.\n\nThere is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.\nTo help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and one year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.\nA summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.\n\nThese findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”\nThere’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.\nIt can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6020078,"gmtCreate":1632790570784,"gmtModify":1634783921306,"authorId":3575290973507485,"author":{"id":3575290973507485,"idStr":"3575290973507485","authorId":3575290973507485,"name":"Rookie22","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6852efd5f87d9ecf7965e213c38ac97","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":868775357,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes correct.&nbsp; Dont listen to others","text":"Yes correct.&nbsp; Dont listen to others","html":"Yes correct.&nbsp; Dont listen to others"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":587,"commentSize":64,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1175726457"}