美股崩盘警讯极强？不，是股神巴菲特指标不准了

汇通网2021-04-08

按照“股神”巴菲特的指标，当美股市值在GDP的80%就是买点该底价抢筹了，当比例超过120%时就是泡沫阶段，是崩盘前非常强烈的警告信号！按照这一指标，其实美股，特别是科技股早就超过了。而且看威尔希尔5000总市场指数，标准普尔500指数约占美国股市总市值的78%。标普500指数的总市值今年已突破33万亿美元，超过了最新估计的美国第四季度GDP(21.5万亿美元)的150%。本周，特斯拉CEO...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股崩盘警讯极强？不，是股神巴菲特指标不准了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 19:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://news.fx678.com/202104081917022112.shtml><strong>汇通网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>按照“股神”巴菲特的指标，当美股市值在GDP的80%就是买点该底价抢筹了，当比例超过120%时就是泡沫阶段，是崩盘前非常强烈的警告信号！\n按照这一指标，其实美股，特别是科技股早就超过了。\n而且看威尔希尔5000总市场指数，标准普尔500指数约占美国股市总市值的78%。标普500指数的总市值今年已突破33万亿美元，超过了最新估计的美国第四季度GDP(21.5万亿美元)的150%。\n本周，特斯拉CEO...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.fx678.com/202104081917022112.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://news.fx678.com/202104081917022112.shtml","article_id":"1175659770","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1b9fef028787bba142fa31212ae49d2"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175659770","pubTimestamp":1617883112,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"HTW","name":"汇通网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"按照“股神”巴菲特的指标，当美股市值在GDP的80%就是买点该底价抢筹了，当比例超过120%时就是泡沫阶段，是崩盘前非常强烈的警告信号！\n按照这一指标，其实美股，特别是科技股早就超过了。\n而且看威尔希","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"fx678.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"U.S. Stock Crash Warning Strong? No, it's Buffett, the stock god. The index is not accurate","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e214a2e70cd639897bb47bfbaa8d8ea2","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"按照“股神”巴菲特的指标，当美股市值在GDP的80%就是买点该底价抢筹了，当比例超过120%时就是泡沫阶段，是崩盘前非常强烈的警告信号！\n按照这一指标，其实美股，特别是科技股早就超过了。\n而且看威尔希尔5000总市场指数，标准普尔500指数约占美国股市总市值的78%。标普500指数的总市值今年已突破33万亿美元，超过了最新估计的美国第四季度GDP(21.5万亿美元)的150%。\n本周，特斯拉CEO马斯克在推特上给明星选股人、方舟投资老板凯西·伍德提问时，后者认为，之所以现在美股早已过了巴菲特的警告线，是因为低估了GDP增长，因为今天的技术创新使以前的技术相形见绌，压低了价格，刺激了需求。\n我们此前也说过，美股持续刷新记录，其背后的核心原因在于美国当前处于近零利率环境，所以巨债成本低，加之美国近5万亿美元印钞注入，美国的上市企业可以发债回购继续推升股价。所以我们看到，美国上市企业公司债务正在和股价回购增长率如影随形。\n对于这种拉高股价行为，凯西·伍德也警告称，最终会付出代价，她说那些没有创新，而是借钱回购股票和派发股息的公司将付出高昂的代价。它们将被迫降价，以转移库存并偿还债务。\n所以美股会崩吗，合适崩，今时已不同，不能再以历史或者单一指标来衡量了。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1175659770"}