Goodhart's Law: When Investors Mistake The Distortions Of The Wall Of Money For Wisdom

zerohedge2021-07-19

“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure,” said the Englishman, stepping outside of himself. “That’s Goodhart’s Law.” Charles Goodhart observed that central banks measured ...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

jp1
2021-07-19
jp1
Good[真香]
Ai_Ling
2021-07-19
Ai_Ling
Good morning
- Ai_Ling:
  nice

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174765989?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-07-19 13:40","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1174765989","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Goodhart's Law: When Investors Mistake The Distortions Of The Wall Of Money For Wisdom","media":"zerohedge","content":"<div>\n<p>“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure,” said the Englishman, stepping outside of himself. “That’s Goodhart’s Law.”\nCharles Goodhart observed that central banks measured ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goodharts-law-when-investors-mistake-distortions-wall-money-wisdom\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1583725640930","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goodhart's Law: When Investors Mistake The Distortions Of The Wall Of Money For Wisdom</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoodhart's Law: When Investors Mistake The Distortions Of The Wall Of Money For Wisdom\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 13:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goodharts-law-when-investors-mistake-distortions-wall-money-wisdom><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure,” said the Englishman, stepping outside of himself. “That’s Goodhart’s Law.”\nCharles Goodhart observed that central banks measured ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goodharts-law-when-investors-mistake-distortions-wall-money-wisdom\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SPY","symbol_name":"标普500ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goodharts-law-when-investors-mistake-distortions-wall-money-wisdom","article_id":"1174765989","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174765989","pubTimestamp":1626673211,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1583725640930","name":"Zerohedge"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure,” said the Englishman, stepping out","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zerohedge.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"古德哈特定律：当投资者把金钱之墙的扭曲误认为是智慧","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9},"content_text":"“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure,” said the Englishman, stepping outside of himself. “That’s Goodhart’s Law.”\nCharles Goodhart observed that central banks measured money supply, and found certain M1 growth rates to be optimal. But once they targeted that optimal range, M1 lost its value as a measure.\nMarket and economic actors adjusted their behavior to game the M1 system. So central bankers shifted to M2, then M3, and M4.\n“Investing is obviously not a science, but if it were, we would say that you can’t act on something and observe it at the same time.” French colonialists discovered this in rat infested Hanoi, when they offered a bounty for killing rodents. To receive the reward, the Vietnamese were required to produce severed tails.\nSoon thereafter, tail-less rats scurried throughout the city. The bounty hunters removed their tails and released them to the filthy sewers to breed. Boosting their bounty.\n“Investors discover pricing anomalies from the past. And they pile into them, ensuring that for a time they persist.”They mistake the distortions of their wall of money for the wisdom of their observations.\nThey interact with the market as if they’re exogenous, when, in fact, they’ve become endogenous. “Today’s greatest example of Goodhart’s Law in action can be found in volatility markets.”\nThe VIX index measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500, and is calculated by multiplying expected 30-day variance by 100. As a measure of market fear, it was quite useful, until it became something that could be traded.\n“The sheer size of outstanding positions in VIX futures, VIX options, ETFs, ETNs and bank volatility selling programs is such that those trading these markets can no longer separate the true measure of volatility from their own actions.”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":173459711,"gmtCreate":1626682131633,"gmtModify":1633924972750,"author":{"id":"4089782286698550","authorId":"4089782286698550","name":"jp1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/582acb757640747714d17c7565761c11","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good[真香]&nbsp;","listText":"Good[真香]&nbsp;","text":"Good[真香]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173459711","repostId":1174765989,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":173554707,"gmtCreate":1626673447509,"gmtModify":1633925022140,"author":{"id":"3581897384326559","authorId":"3581897384326559","name":"Ai_Ling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10016b9fcd8f9137b9387b6cc0f9f965","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good morning","listText":"Good morning","text":"Good morning","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173554707","repostId":1174765989,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5259970,"gmtCreate":1626673461960,"gmtModify":1635226205692,"authorId":3581897384326559,"author":{"id":3581897384326559,"authorId":3581897384326559,"name":"Ai_Ling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10016b9fcd8f9137b9387b6cc0f9f965","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":173554707,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>nice</u>","text":"<u>nice</u>","html":"<u>nice</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":41,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1174765989"}