你恐慌时大佬已贪婪：一轮港股“超级回购潮”正在兴起

格隆汇2021-12-24

2021年的港股市场，可谓是熊冠全球，让众多港股投资者竞折腰。截至今日，恒生指数从年内最高点跌下来，跌幅达26%，恒生科技指数更惨，累计下跌48.06%，指数几乎腰斩。按理说港股估值还是比较低，港股投资着一直视它为白马股最后的价值洼地，然而这么大的跌幅，却是让人大跌眼镜。而就在近期港股暴跌创历史新低的时候，上市公司竟然掀起了新一轮的回购潮。数据显示，截至12月21日，2021年港股有189...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

温良恭
2021-12-24
温良恭
都别贪了，看我以前的比喻，死都不知道自己怎么死的
ZHY_2137
2021-12-24
ZHY_2137
大佬无限子弹当然不慌啊，越跌越买。小散户打两枪就没子弹了，哪耗得起呢。。。
T0000023368
2021-12-24
T0000023368
强大
NCP88
2021-12-24
NCP88
大鱼吃小鱼
- CMChai100:
  等待中
- NCP88:
  [开心]
alvin88gan
2021-12-24
alvin88gan
Good
东方明珠z
2021-12-24
东方明珠z
股市永远是翘翘板！当普通股民惊慌失措、夺路而逃的日子，就是市场大鳄们开启“美食盛宴”的时候！想要在股市中活得久一点，活得好一点的话，审时度势、善于学习、不断进步是必须的！

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href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/502541\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"HSI","symbol_name":"恒生指数","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/502541","article_id":"1173227799","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/38508134c6853c521e764dc952e7334a"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173227799","pubTimestamp":1640317363,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"gelonghui_highlight","name":"格隆汇"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"拐点要来了吗？","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"gelonghui.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"translate_title":"When you panic, the big brothers are greedy: a round of \"super repurchase tide\" of Hong Kong stocks is on the rise","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93324da3690b49ac4c3f171d4dedd8d4","symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9},"content_text":"2021年的港股市场，可谓是熊冠全球，让众多港股投资者竞折腰。\n截至今日，恒生指数从年内最高点跌下来，跌幅达26%，恒生科技指数更惨，累计下跌48.06%，指数几乎腰斩。按理说港股估值还是比较低，港股投资着一直视它为白马股最后的价值洼地，然而这么大的跌幅，却是让人大跌眼镜。\n\n而就在近期港股暴跌创历史新低的时候，上市公司竟然掀起了新一轮的回购潮。\n数据显示，截至12月21日，2021年港股有189家上市公司进行回购，累计回购金额达361.60亿港元，创2002年有数据记录以来的历史新高。\n从技术形态上看，短期恒生指数均处于底部区域，并有往上反弹的迹象，港股的回购潮，难道是“别人恐慌时，上市公司贪婪”，还是拐点要来了吗？\n暴跌真相\n此前，之所以大部分人看好港股，是因为我国市值最大的几家互联网公司全都在港股募资上市，都看好这些互联网公司未来的发展前景。\n但今年港股给大家开了个玩笑，现实的情况和大家预期的截然相反。大家看好的互联网板块因为反垄断被打得一蹶不振；其次就是地产板块“房住不炒”杀得没任何脾气，然后是生物科技这些在集采大棒下成为资本抛弃的烫手山芋。这些都是港股中的大权重板块，它们连续杀跌大大得拖累了整个港股的走势。\n据统计，今年以来腾讯下跌了17.7%，美团下跌了18.1%，最惨的是阿里巴巴，今年大跌了48.6%，近乎腰斩，股价创下了历史新低。腾讯、阿里和美团三家公司，合计市值8.5万亿港币，大约相当于港股总市值的20%。\n同时在港股中市值占比较大的内地房地产公司今年也出现了大幅下跌，中国恒大暴跌84%，碧桂园下跌30%，融创中国下跌48%，这样就进一步加剧了市场下跌的压力。\n另一方面，不管是A股市场还是港股市场，上涨都是靠资金推动的。对A股来说就是人民币，那么对港股而言，无疑就是港币。\n\n上图为恒生指数与港币M2的走势关系\n从上面图可以看出，恒生指数和港币M2两者的相关度非常高（相关系数高达85%），基本上股市见顶一般滞后货币增速见顶几个月。\n比如，2015年夏季的股市大顶，港币M2在2014年7月见顶；去年四季度M2出现顶部，随后港股今年年初就开始出现顶部，所以可参考性还算很大的。同时需要注意，今年港币M2出现了“负增长”的情形。2021年10月，港币M2在维持了几个月的下滑之后，罕见跌破零点，创下-4.24%的13年新低，估计是担心未来美国Taper加码与加息。对于与美元流动性波动影响较大的港股市场来说，美国的加息也让投资者担心资本从港股市场的流出。\n在这样的情况下，未来几个月港币M2很有可能仍是负的，所以说港股想走好还比较难。\n还有戏吗？\n万物皆周期，树不可能涨到天上，港股也不可能一直跌。那么，在港股接下来会有投资机会吗？\n我们回顾港股近10年的走势，可以看到，恒生指数已经跌到了2014年8月的位置，如果从历史价位上看现在不算高。虽然目前港股正在经历着至暗时刻，但是如果把时间拉长，港股也还没到绝望的地步。\n说实话，近期港股上市公司纷纷开始回购，而且还创历史新高。至少这些上市公司对自己公司股票到目前价位还是非常认可的，觉得当下股价被大幅低估，与其便宜贱卖，还不如自己买回来。总体来看消息面上还是偏向利好。\n同时回顾历史数据，历史上港股回购激增均出现在恒指底部区域附近，而回购潮大概率将提振市场投资信心。兴业证券的数据显示，2008年以来港股经历过五轮公司回购潮，均在熊市中发生，恒生指数价格与公司回购数量呈现负相关走势，大规模的公司回购往往预示着阶段性底部，并且后续均伴随着反弹行情。\n\n那么我们根据历史规律来看，这一轮大规模回购潮影响下，港股短期也是有可能有超跌反弹的。但超跌反弹不等于说反转，大家不要太盲目乐观。\n同时也不是任何宣布回购股票的公司可以跟进，因为回购股票分为回购注销和回购不注销两种情况：如果一家上市公司回购股票后将股票注销了，那么股份就会减少，每股权益会增加，这是真正的利好;如果回购不注销，那么利好程度是比较低的。\n如果公司本身实力不雄厚的话，支付回购成本需要的资金量比较大，容易造成资金紧张，资产流动性也逐渐降低，影响公司后续发展。同时还有些企业由于缺乏好的投资项目而不愿意进一步投资，只能选择用现金来回购股票。也是在说明公司的行业前景可能不大好。\n如果说做投资，还要关注市场估值，港股经过今年的大跌，港股的估值继续下降，目前已经到了历史非常低的位置。横向对比国际上其他主流市场的估值，港股在全球市场也是估值偏低的。\n目前恒生指数PE（TTM）10.45倍左右，历史分位点34.5%，PB1.06倍，历史分位点10%，几乎要跌破净资产。总体估值处于近10年的中线位置，还算合理。\n\n走势图来源：Wind\n如果考虑到曾经恒生指数权重以金融和周期股为主，现在纳入了很多可以享受高估值的新经济公司，所以恒指当前的估值应该是偏低的。\n从长周期来看，估值较低是投资的重要优势，但从短期逻辑上讲，估值较低并不是说有很合适的投资时机，毕竟今年港股出现重挫很大一部分原因就是政策层面引起的，这个因素到现在似乎还没有完全出清，陆续还是能看到针对互联网企业的监管。\n互联网行业已经经历了初始期、成长期、发展期。这些年，开始内卷存量竞争，有点见顶趋势，并把触角伸向类似买菜这样的民生领域。从这个角度看，互联网的估值逻辑有逐步趋近于传统行业的趋势。\n在这样的情况下，对于互联网企业未来业绩上也很难有大幅拉升和突破，同时也包括”房住不炒“的房地产板块，都比较难出现戴维斯双击。\n既然作为港股权重占比较大的板块都还不能出现业绩修复的迹象，那么港股未来还较难迎来大的反弹行情。\n结语\n目前港股上市公司上演回购潮，虽然可以增强股票市场信心，同时港股的估值已处于各自历史低位，短期来说可能有超跌反弹机会，但是中长来看不要太乐观。\n毕竟可能还会承受来自反垄断方面的压力，这个政策还没出清，同时港股还面临中美关系摩擦、美联储加息等重大不确定性因素。海外市场一旦动荡，几乎必然会波及港股，所以明年港股还要更需谨慎，能否出现明显反弹行情还有待观察。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":698869315,"gmtCreate":1640341624412,"gmtModify":1640341624412,"author":{"id":"3559157121318776","authorId":"3559157121318776","name":"温良恭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559157121318776","authorIdStr":"3559157121318776"},"htmlText":"都别贪了，看我以前的比喻，死都不知道自己怎么死的","listText":"都别贪了，看我以前的比喻，死都不知道自己怎么死的","text":"都别贪了，看我以前的比喻，死都不知道自己怎么死的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698869315","repostId":1173227799,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":698815624,"gmtCreate":1640337895494,"gmtModify":1640339151648,"author":{"id":"3544181874177341","authorId":"3544181874177341","name":"ZHY_2137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd45d37ad234523a6ac0934a2270521","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3544181874177341","authorIdStr":"3544181874177341"},"htmlText":"大佬无限子弹当然不慌啊，越跌越买。小散户打两枪就没子弹了，哪耗得起呢。。。","listText":"大佬无限子弹当然不慌啊，越跌越买。小散户打两枪就没子弹了，哪耗得起呢。。。","text":"大佬无限子弹当然不慌啊，越跌越买。小散户打两枪就没子弹了，哪耗得起呢。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698815624","repostId":1173227799,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":698898505,"gmtCreate":1640331716566,"gmtModify":1640331716566,"author":{"id":"3541839471403056","authorId":"3541839471403056","name":"T0000023368","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3541839471403056","authorIdStr":"3541839471403056"},"htmlText":"强大","listText":"强大","text":"强大","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698898505","repostId":1173227799,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"re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