油价飙升是供需平衡必由之路？高盛：不排除破百的可能性

金十数据2021-12-17

如果供应迟迟跟不上，而市场已经需要破坏需求才能重新达到平衡，届时油价可能高达每桶110美元。高盛表示，目前不能排除油价将在2023年涨至每桶100美元的可能性，因预计石油供应增长速度太慢，无法跟上创纪录的需求复苏。高盛能源研究主管Damien Courvalin称，虽然高盛的基本预测是2022年和2023年布伦特原油价格将维持在85美元/桶左右，但油价仍然有可能会突破三位数。一方面，钻探商的...

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精彩评论

tunu
2021-12-17
tunu
油价通常不是跟着市场需求波动，是背后大佬操纵。🤐
- tunu:
  👍
jhanwei
2021-12-17
jhanwei
[微笑]

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Goldman Sachs: Do not rule out the possibility of breaking 100","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1a52cd56a177a27fdb466fa5a449d67","symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9},"content_text":"如果供应迟迟跟不上，而市场已经需要破坏需求才能重新达到平衡，届时油价可能高达每桶110美元。\n\n高盛表示，目前不能排除油价将在2023年涨至每桶100美元的可能性，因预计石油供应增长速度太慢，无法跟上创纪录的需求复苏。\n高盛能源研究主管Damien Courvalin称，虽然高盛的基本预测是2022年和2023年布伦特原油价格将维持在85美元/桶左右，但油价仍然有可能会突破三位数。一方面，钻探商的成本可能随着通胀水涨船高，另一方面，意外的供应短缺可能迫使价格飙升至足以破坏需求的程度。\n这正是在今年油价上涨超过40%之后，高盛却依旧看好石油的原因。该行认为，由于对奥密克变异株或将导致相关限制措施的不必要担忧，此前原油的抛售过度了，一旦资产管理公司明年重新配置资金，投资者就会在油市逢低买入。\nCourvalin在一次电话会议中指出：\n\n “面对强劲的需求，供应显然不足。油价必须走高，才能覆盖石油勘探项目的较高成本。”\n\nCourvalin表示，近期油价近10美元的跌幅相当于市场定价3个月内的石油日需求锐减500万桶。这可能是一种过度反应，因为截至目前，各国政府似乎正在以更多的病毒检测而不是新的封锁措施，来应对奥密克戎带来的挑战。\n\nCourvalin补充称，从长远来看，随着投资者选择支持以ESG为重点的行业，受上游成本和融资成本增加的影响，石油行业的产量增长备受打击。考虑到围绕能源转型的不确定性及其对燃料使用的影响，对长周期石油项目的投资也有所下降。\nCourvalin指出，目前市场对汽油、柴油和塑料等产品的需求都处于创纪录水平，预计相关消费量将在2022年和2023年创下新高。由于与新冠疫情相关的旅行限制，航空燃料的需求增长相对滞后，但随着边境重新开放，一些被压抑的旅行需求可能重现。\n强劲的政府资本支出有望支撑需求，这既是为了支持疫情后的经济复苏，也为应对气候变化所需的能源转型提供资金。对收入不平等的重视也将提振商品需求，因为贫困人口倾向于将大部分收入用于消费商品和能源。\nCourvalin预计，如果供应迟迟跟不上，而市场已经需要破坏需求才能重新达到平衡，届时油价可能高达每桶110美元。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":699915027,"gmtCreate":1639734814829,"gmtModify":1639734814888,"author":{"id":"4101127420253800","authorId":"4101127420253800","name":"tunu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfb9bc1e6909c1027177e7976bcad2a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4101127420253800","authorIdStr":"4101127420253800"},"htmlText":"油价通常不是跟着市场需求波动，是背后大佬操纵。🤐","listText":"油价通常不是跟着市场需求波动，是背后大佬操纵。🤐","text":"油价通常不是跟着市场需求波动，是背后大佬操纵。🤐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699915027","repostId":1173002788,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7021919,"gmtCreate":1639734824324,"gmtModify":1639734824351,"authorId":4101127420253800,"author":{"id":4101127420253800,"idStr":"4101127420253800","authorId":4101127420253800,"name":"tunu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfb9bc1e6909c1027177e7976bcad2a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":699915027,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍","text":"👍","html":"👍"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":699906084,"gmtCreate":1639731558713,"gmtModify":1639731558713,"author":{"id":"4099234321752210","authorId":"4099234321752210","name":"jhanwei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94dcc95a1ac0654b55469c88be3ad768","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4099234321752210","authorIdStr":"4099234321752210"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699906084","repostId":1173002788,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1173002788"}