All the doves at the Fed have become hawks

MarketWatch2021-12-16

The U.S. central bank charts a completely new course to attack inflation rather than continue to wait it out The big news from the Federal Reserve’s meeting Wednesday wasn’t that it’ll stop buying ...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

hawtness
2021-12-16
hawtness
like
- hawtness:
  .
Kevin92
2021-12-16
Kevin92
Like
RobinChanKH
2021-12-16
RobinChanKH
Up
- Kevin92:
  Like
TriciaChang
2021-12-16
TriciaChang
Ok
nnavinraj
2021-12-16
nnavinraj
👍
- nnavinraj:
  Nice
SSVC
2021-12-16
SSVC
Hmm..

发表看法

114

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172070133?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-12-16 10:20","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1172070133","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"All the doves at the Fed have become hawks","media":"MarketWatch","content":"<div>\n<p>The U.S. central bank charts a completely new course to attack inflation rather than continue to wait it out\n\nThe big news from the Federal Reserve’s meeting Wednesday wasn’t that it’ll stop buying ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-the-doves-at-the-fed-have-become-hawks-11639613760?mod=mw_latestnews\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1603348471595","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>All the doves at the Fed have become hawks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAll the doves at the Fed have become hawks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-16 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-the-doves-at-the-fed-have-become-hawks-11639613760?mod=mw_latestnews><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The U.S. central bank charts a completely new course to attack inflation rather than continue to wait it out\n\nThe big news from the Federal Reserve’s meeting Wednesday wasn’t that it’ll stop buying ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-the-doves-at-the-fed-have-become-hawks-11639613760?mod=mw_latestnews\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-the-doves-at-the-fed-have-become-hawks-11639613760?mod=mw_latestnews","article_id":"1172070133","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172070133","pubTimestamp":1639621250,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The U.S. central bank charts a completely new course to attack inflation rather than continue to wai","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"美联储所有的鸽派都变成了鹰派","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"The U.S. central bank charts a completely new course to attack inflation rather than continue to wait it out\n\nThe big news from the Federal Reserve’s meeting Wednesday wasn’t that it’ll stop buying bonds to stimulate the economy or that it’s now signaling three increases in its benchmark lending rate in 2022. Those short-term policy decisions had been well-telegraphed by Fed officials over the past month.\nNo, the big surprise is that the gargantuan, change-averse Fed has turned 180 degrees in its view of inflation.\nThe Fed’s statement Wednesday and the accompanying materials show that the doves — the policy makers who generally believe that the risk of inflation is overblown — have completely surrendered. Everyone’s a hawk now. There are no doves at the Fed anymore.\nFed monetary-policy makers unanimously agree that fighting inflation is their No. 1 job. They may disagree on the tactics or the timing, but not on the strategy of vanquishing inflation soon. The Fed is on a war footing, and inflation is the enemy.\nFor 30 years, the doves had been right: Inflation wasn’t the biggest threat to the economy; unemployment was. The doves fought an ultimately successful battle to force the Federal Reserve to consider the very real costs that unemployment forces upon society and the many individuals whom the economy was leaving behind.\nBut now effects of the coronavirus pandemic have forced even the doves to accept that inflation is a bigger threat than unemployment. That’s a huge change in an institution that doesn’t like change.\nHow do we know the doves have metamorphosed into hawks? Look at the dot plot, a chart the Fed releases every three months that shows the anonymous individual forecasts of each monetary-policy maker for the level of the federal funds rate at the ends of the next several years.\nMost analysts correctly focus on the median forecast for the coming year, but I’d like to redirect your attention briefly to the medium-term forecasts of the outliers, the most hawkish and dovish members of the Fed, to show how much the battlefield inside the Fed has changed since that horrendous consumer-price-index reading of Nov. 10. That report changed everything at the Fed.\n\nIn the latest forecasts released Wednesday, the most hawkish members raised their medium-term forecasts modestly from 1.63% to 2.13% at the end of 2023, and from 2.63% to 3.13% at the end of 2024. The five most hawkish members now think the Fed will have to push the fed funds rate above its assumed long-run equilibrium of 2.5%.\nBut the doves completely tore up their previous forecasts. The five most dovish members were forecasting between zero and two rate hikes by the end of 2023, but now they expect four or five. By the end of 2024, they had been forecasting between two and four rate hikes; now they expect seven.\nClearly, even the most dovish Fed officials now believe the fed funds rate must go up a lot to vanquish inflation. Before, they thought inflation would come down all by itself.\nThis means that inflation no longer gets the benefit of the doubt. It’s been proven guilty, and even the doves will prosecute the war until victory is won. For the inflation doves at the Fed, Nov. 10, 2021, was bit of like Dec. 7, 1941: Time to go to war.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":690968010,"gmtCreate":1639622670780,"gmtModify":1639622671023,"author":{"id":"3579342315387211","authorId":"3579342315387211","name":"hawtness","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d97d615f24939cff0ea1fc1abff9f10","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579342315387211","idStr":"3579342315387211"},"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690968010","repostId":1172070133,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7000351,"gmtCreate":1639622674223,"gmtModify":1639622674247,"authorId":3579342315387211,"author":{"id":3579342315387211,"idStr":"3579342315387211","authorId":3579342315387211,"name":"hawtness","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d97d615f24939cff0ea1fc1abff9f10","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":690968010,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":".","text":".","html":"."}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":690969468,"gmtCreate":1639622447573,"gmtModify":1639622448420,"author":{"id":"3576274545052910","authorId":"3576274545052910","name":"Kevin92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ff4addbbdb8d9d15fec29f9709b0c3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576274545052910","idStr":"3576274545052910"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690969468","repostId":1172070133,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":690960054,"gmtCreate":1639622263782,"gmtModify":1639622264156,"author":{"id":"3585125163446793","authorId":"3585125163446793","name":"RobinChanKH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf0ba843eca17a8812677bc4f2a46162","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3585125163446793","idStr":"3585125163446793"},"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690960054","repostId":1172070133,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7000303,"gmtCreate":1639622440529,"gmtModify":1639622440624,"authorId":3576274545052910,"author":{"id":3576274545052910,"idStr":"3576274545052910","authorId":3576274545052910,"name":"Kevin92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ff4addbbdb8d9d15fec29f9709b0c3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":690960054,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":690982021,"gmtCreate":1639621812894,"gmtModify":1639621813584,"author":{"id":"3560421500323385","authorId":"3560421500323385","name":"TriciaChang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb6619edb253a8bb8b2776c7d9b0e02","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3560421500323385","idStr":"3560421500323385"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690982021","repostId":1172070133,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":690901862,"gmtCreate":1639618354308,"gmtModify":1639618354499,"author":{"id":"3578099872805879","authorId":"3578099872805879","name":"nnavinraj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff06b63457b059098678fc929e99957c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578099872805879","idStr":"3578099872805879"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690901862","repostId":1172070133,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6999110,"gmtCreate":1639618407806,"gmtModify":1639618407884,"authorId":3578099872805879,"author":{"id":3578099872805879,"idStr":"3578099872805879","authorId":3578099872805879,"name":"nnavinraj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff06b63457b059098678fc929e99957c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":690901862,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice","text":"Nice","html":"Nice"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":690072023,"gmtCreate":1639617746858,"gmtModify":1639617749270,"author":{"id":"3574906731000207","authorId":"3574906731000207","name":"SSVC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545a5ea462ff4ac7cc100bd3d8d97f72","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574906731000207","idStr":"3574906731000207"},"htmlText":"Hmm..","listText":"Hmm..","text":"Hmm..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690072023","repostId":1172070133,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":114,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1172070133"}