The Ugly Truth About Market Bubbles Is That Everyone Loses

Bloomberg2021-12-07

The bears are always too early and the bulls, who have been conditioned to buy every dip, stay too long at the party. Bubbles tend to disappoint everyone. Photographer: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images I...

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vbjvvbb
2021-12-07
vbjvvbb
Ok
fortuna
2021-12-07
fortuna
Like
gurug
2021-12-07
gurug
Oh
- fortuna:
  Ok
WanEH
2021-12-07
WanEH
When bear want to come? Only us federal know.

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Photographer: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images\nI...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-07/stock-market-the-ugly-truth-about-bubbles-is-everyone-loses?srnd=premium-asia\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Ugly Truth About Market Bubbles Is That Everyone Loses</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Ugly Truth About Market Bubbles Is That Everyone Loses\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-07 21:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-07/stock-market-the-ugly-truth-about-bubbles-is-everyone-loses?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The bears are always too early and the bulls, who have been conditioned to buy every dip, stay too long at the party.\nBubbles tend to disappoint everyone. Photographer: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images\nI...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-07/stock-market-the-ugly-truth-about-bubbles-is-everyone-loses?srnd=premium-asia\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-07/stock-market-the-ugly-truth-about-bubbles-is-everyone-loses?srnd=premium-asia","article_id":"1171622002","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171622002","pubTimestamp":1638883517,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1584095487587","name":"Bloomberg"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The bears are always too early and the bulls, who have been conditioned to buy every dip, stay too l","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"bloomberg.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"关于市场泡沫的丑陋真相是每个人都输了","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"The bears are always too early and the bulls, who have been conditioned to buy every dip, stay too long at the party.\nBubbles tend to disappoint everyone. Photographer: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images\nI was chatting a few days ago with one of the smartest hedge fund managers I know. We were talking about the recent carnage in unprofitable tech “dream” stocks, and he reminded me of a time many have forgotten. “From 1995 to 2000, I watched some of the shrewdest managers get annihilated shorting the dot-com bubble,” he said. “By the end, they all went out of business. I then watched the next five years destroy all the long managers who had ridden the euphoria to the upside, until most of the aggressive ones were also sent packing.”\n\nIn hindsight, bubbles always seem obvious and easy to trade. As someone who has experienced more of these than I care to remember, I assure you they are not. Take the mid-2000s real estate episode. With movies such as the “Big Short,”and glowing newspaper articles about hedge fund managers who made fortunes profiting from the real estate collapse, it seems like opportunity was everywhere.\nWhat we forget is that these trades were successful because so few believed they could happen. I can’t tell you the number of times a young trader tells me, “I wish I had been around back then, ‘cause I would have made a killing!” What they don’t understand is that, in the moment, bubbles are extremely difficult to identify. They are even tougher to trade.\nI’ll never forget trying to take advantage of the real estate mania in 2005. I thought the sector was wildly overpriced. That February, when it appeared the homebuilders had topped and started to roll over, I shorted a basket of homebuilder stocks. The trade worked until April. Then, much to the surprise of the bears, homebuilder shares ripped higher by 35% in the space of two months, and I got shaken out of my short positions.\n\nThe ugly truth about bubbles is that both the bears and the bulls end up losing. The bears are inevitably too early, and by the time the market rolls over, the vast majority have given up. The bulls, who have been conditioned to buy every dip, stay at the party much too late.\nBubbles used to be rare and encompass entire asset classes. But markets have evolved. Even back almost a decade ago it wasn’t hard to see how the proliferation of hedge funds had decreased the amount of available “alpha,”creating an environment prone to a series of rolling mini-bubbles. As sophisticated investors deployed capital into themes or sectors, the price action encouraged momentum-chasers. This affirmed the belief that the fundamental investors were on to something, causing more buying and resulting in a positive feedback loop.\nThen Covid-19 hit and mini-bubbles became perversely extreme. At the March 2020 crisis bottom, the Goldman Sachs Non-Profitable Technology Index had fallen 40%, attracting short sellers. Then, over the summer, the basket of shares rallied 38% and financial airwaves were filled with gurus like Chamath Palihapitiya and Cathie Wood espousing the virtues of these new technology marvels. And, just like previous bubbles, even the skeptics eventually feared shorting due to the violent rallies. Some 11 months later, this group of stocks had risen an astonishing 478%.\n\nAnd yet, here we are. The index has declined 41% from the 2021 high. Surely, there are individual “rock star” investors who made money, but as a group, both the bulls and bears have been beaten up. Most of the vocal bears have stopped forecasting a decline, while the majority of bulls remain long even though many are now underwater on their trades.\nI don’t know the direction of this sector over the short-run, but experience tells me it is a painful bear market with face-ripping rallies that lure bulls back in and forces bears to cover their bets before it resumes its relentless march lower.\nYears from now, with the benefit of hindsight, it will seem obvious these stocks were wildly overvalued. The few investors smart enough to get out at the top, or lean into the short side on the way down, will be celebrated. It will all seem so easy. Yet, in the midst of the actual event, it is anything but.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":606289383,"gmtCreate":1638885040839,"gmtModify":1638885041275,"author":{"id":"3554803619527377","authorId":"3554803619527377","name":"vbjvvbb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb1b38f4354ec237a7cab99dbd46e94","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554803619527377","authorIdStr":"3554803619527377"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606289383","repostId":1171622002,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606214903,"gmtCreate":1638884629991,"gmtModify":1638884630310,"author":{"id":"3572304910905752","authorId":"3572304910905752","name":"fortuna","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572304910905752","authorIdStr":"3572304910905752"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606214903","repostId":1171622002,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606212203,"gmtCreate":1638884538172,"gmtModify":1638884538172,"author":{"id":"3570333347569010","authorId":"3570333347569010","name":"gurug","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28b875422016d24f4fa1ad8dd7657d82","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570333347569010","authorIdStr":"3570333347569010"},"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606212203","repostId":1171622002,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6885397,"gmtCreate":1638884639668,"gmtModify":1638884639754,"authorId":3572304910905752,"author":{"id":3572304910905752,"idStr":"3572304910905752","authorId":3572304910905752,"name":"fortuna","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606212203,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606211386,"gmtCreate":1638883966133,"gmtModify":1638899432564,"author":{"id":"4089383496572850","authorId":"4089383496572850","name":"WanEH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f13510c4daf7c6eff3a61591fdca817","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089383496572850","authorIdStr":"4089383496572850"},"htmlText":"When bear want to come? Only us federal know.","listText":"When bear want to come? Only us federal know.","text":"When bear want to come? Only us federal know.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606211386","repostId":1171622002,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":48,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1171622002"}