房企最艰难的时刻来了！谁最危险？

九三房研社2021-09-15

一房地产开发商的苦日子来了！数据显示，今年房企到期债务高达1.28万亿，突破万亿大关，是2018-2023年这六年间压力最大的！债务高举，违约频发，今年成了房企暴雷年。据统计，今年上半年已经有12家房企出现债务违约，违约的规模高达191.92亿，是今年我国企业信用违约行业的第一位！最夸张的是，昔日百亿房企三盛宏业因为百亿债务违约，董事长被限制高消费51次，已经申请破产重组，最近老板还以...

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精彩评论

中正甫
2021-09-17
中正甫
三道红线
啊老张
2021-09-15
啊老张
三道红线
光照的果
2021-09-15
光照的果
没事的，涨价去库存多来几次
山水画606
2021-09-15
山水画606
都是玩游戏
潘捷_5558
2021-09-15
潘捷_5558
文章中怎么没提融创中国
潘捷_5558
2021-09-15
潘捷_5558
文章中怎么没提融创中国？
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dangerous?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e0501de220636e12dcd41cc97e466b2","symbols_score_info":{"IYR":0.9},"content_text":"一\n房地产开发商的苦日子来了！\n数据显示，今年房企到期债务高达1.28万亿，突破万亿大关，是2018-2023年这六年间压力最大的！\n\n债务高举，违约频发，今年成了房企暴雷年。\n据统计，今年上半年已经有12家房企出现债务违约，违约的规模高达191.92亿，是今年我国企业信用违约行业的第一位！\n最夸张的是，昔日百亿房企三盛宏业因为百亿债务违约，董事长被限制高消费51次，已经申请破产重组，最近老板还以“悬赏通缉”的方式登上了人民日报的头条。\n\n三盛的老板陈建铭90年代下海进军地产，在浙江和宋氏绿城合作，创建“颐景园”系列广获好评而崛起，三盛成为中国地产百强的常客。\n但因为盲目多元化，大量举债甚至向员工发理财产品，到2019年危机爆发。拖欠员工薪资、项目大面积停工、资金被监管等问题出现。\n到今年1月，已到期的有息负债高达约105亿元，却无力偿还。随后企业申请破产，老板被全网悬赏通缉，一地鸡毛。\n近期，还有恒盛地产出现债务违约，上半年分别有8.88亿元的本金和4.44亿元的利息超时未兑付。\n前几年都还算是中小企业，但是从今年开始，危机已经蔓延到千亿房企。\n资本高手宝能陷入债务泥潭，令人震惊。\n当年疯狂举牌想要入主万科的“野蛮人”，从9月至今，已经被法院3次列为被执行人，执行金额高达68.62亿元！\n阳光100，8月有一笔2亿美元的债券没兑付；这笔违约又会触发2022年到期的2.196亿美元的优先绿色票据的交叉违约条款；\n四川地产一哥蓝光地产，截至8月初有12只债券连环违约，涉及债务本息金额共约160亿元；\n华夏幸福作为年初第一家暴雷的千亿房企，债务违约已超110亿元，一点也不幸福；\n更有曾是宇宙第一房企的某大，近期因为债务违约、股价暴跌、理财爆雷等闹得轰轰烈烈。昨天还爆出某大财富的高管已经提前套现跑了，我也是没想到......\n纵观目前为止的这一轮房企大洗牌，有这么几个特点：\n1、从过去的中小房企破产，如2018年的中弘股份，到2019年的银亿集团，再到去年的泰禾、福晟。\n今年暴雷的房企量级又更大了，到千亿房企，过去“大而不倒”的神话真的要破灭了！\n2、行业洗牌已经从民企倒下，演变为谁也难以独善其身，国企也要下场迎接挑战。如绿地已经岌岌可危，项目停工、被曝裁员、传言被并购等风声四起。\n3、梳理房企们遭遇滑铁卢的根源，不是资不抵债，而是流动性危机。\n最典型的，某大负债1.9万亿，但是资产有2.3万亿，公司的经营基本面还在。但资产的流动性疲弱，资金链紧张，才走到今天的地步。\n二\n暴雷的房企一个接一个，由点到面。\n很多人肯定关心，接下来还有哪些房企会面临危险呢？\n三道红线是一个非常重要的参考指标。它是央行针对所有的开发商划出的三个标准，分别是：\n\n 1、剔除预收款后的资产负债率大于70%；\n\n\n 2、净负债率大于100%；\n\n\n 3、现金短债比小于1。\n\n这三道红线说的是啥？\n前两个就是衡量房企的用了多大的杠杆，借了多少钱去搞发展，最后一个就是看企业的现金流，短期的偿还能力。\n这三道红线，我认为出的非常及时，本质是希望对于这样一个玩重资产，高周转的行业，用来督促企业健康经营的。\n按三道红线，房企被划分成四档，安全性从红到绿逐渐增加：\n\n红色档：三条红线全中招，接下来 \n 不得增加有息负债；\n\n\n橙色档：踩到到了两条红线则有息负债规模年增速 \n 不得超过 5%；\n\n\n黄色档：只有一条红线超出阈值，有息负债规模年增速 \n 不得超过 10%；\n\n\n绿色档：即便全部指标都及格，有息负债规模年增速也 \n 不得超过 15%。\n\n对于购房者来说，想知道哪家企业能不能买，就是最简单的就是看档位和档位变化趋势。\n第一，看档位定性。\n据贝壳研究院统计，监测的85家房企里，只有有32家房企实现了“三道红线”都达标，属于“绿档”；\n32家房企踩中一条红线，是“黄档”；\n13家踩中两条红线，属于“橙档”；\n剩下的8家房企，三个指标都不合格，被归为“红档”。\n（不贴了，大家自己在后台回复“三道红线”可获取贝壳统计资料，自己去查看关心的房企吧，记得要关注才可以留言）\n其中，位于“红档”的房企，岌岌可危。它们其实也主要是目前已经暴雷的房企，如蓝光、泰禾、华夏幸福，大家多数都已经知道了。\n\n因为踩中了三道红线，意味着债务高。\n要解决这个问题，最直接就是降价卖房回血。\n但是，现实是现在房子不好卖，降价卖房更不被允许。加上踩中红线就不让增加有息贷款，造血+输血都受阻，流动性被锁得死死的。\n同时“橙档”的房企也不排除未来暴雷的可能。\n随着资金、土地等资源向“绿档”房企倾斜，位列四档中相对劣势地位的房企，要获取资源的难度大大增加，一个不注意很容易滑入“红档”的深渊。\n第二，看档位变化定调。\n在85家房企中，有7家房企成功实现降挡，包括万科、雅居乐、佳兆业等房企降一挡进入“绿档”；恒大、绿地等降一档从“红线”进入“橙线”；\n随着“三线四档“融资新规的影响越来越大，房企“降负”是一个大趋势。\n然而有4家房企不降反升，包括蓝光发展升两档、京投发展升一档，都晋升红档；新湖中宝、上实发展各升一档，落入“黄档”。\n这说明什么呢？\n恒大、绿地等降档，但不一定安全；\n而包括蓝光在内，升档的房企则相当危险。\n第三，警惕钻“永续债”空子的房企。\n这个行业内的人会稍微关注的多一些。\n永续债在会计政策下放到权益部分，看起来就给房企增加了资金，起到了降杠杆的作用。\n实质上永续债是负债，如果放到负债里看，资产负债率会出现变化。另一方面，它的融资成本一般会比普通债权高，也有规定收回时限，如果长时间不收回债务，它产生的利息支出会影响利润。\n比如阳光城，引入泰康战投其实已经说明它缺钱，加上永续债的话，2022年或将会面临比较大的偿债压力。\n还有金科，也是利用永续债还不受监管的漏洞，打擦边球。\n三\n那么，有哪些房企是相对安全的呢？\n在top50房企中，从三道红线的指标看：\n首先，中海、万科、龙湖最出挑。\n\n按这三个指标，分别挑指标出色的大房企看。\n剔除预收款后资产负债率最低的是中海，数值是53.4%。\n在绿档房企里，包括万科、龙湖、保利等优秀房企，大多数是堪堪停留在70%的边缘，勉强入围。中海这么低，在于它经历过跌宕的周期，有很强的风险管控意识。\n净负债率最小的是万科，是20.2%。万科的净负债率已经连续20年低于40%，这是他们内部设置的红线。\n龙湖的现金短债比最高，为5.48。龙湖的现金不仅可以完全覆盖短期债务，而且资金链相当充裕。作为一家民企，能做到这个程度真的很了不起。\n招商、保利、金地、华润、仁恒等，也是相对安全的房企。\n它们是相对稳健的房企，坚持做好主业，又有绿档加持，在资源获取上优势，比如保利、华润在上半年的融资成本低于4%，远低于前50强房企中35家揭露了融资成本——5.79%的平均水平，这让它们能更轻松拥有更多优质资源继续发展。\n最后总结一下：\n1、地产行业分化和洗牌不可避免。\n不仅是中小房企会被淘汰，巨头房企依然面临强劲的挑战。\n2、未来没有黑马，只有千里马。\n三道红线，四档划分，决定了要根据企业的生存情况，限制融资，控制规模扩张。过去那种加杠杆，快速实现规模扩张的方案已经不可行了，快速翻倍增长的神话成为过去，未来黑马罕见，房地产来到真正的长期主义时代。\n3、现金为王，造血能力是关键。\n一切的发展都生发于自身的强大之上，尤其当货币不放松，借钱难度增加，如果自身造血能力弱，房企很容易就会发生资金链断裂的情况，轰然倒下。\n可以预期，未来只有具备财务稳健、深耕主业、产品力强等优势的房企，才能实现长续发展。\n比如中海、万科、龙湖、招商、保利、金地等，大家买房要尽量挑选这类房企。\n“黄档”中的阳光城、中南、花样年、新力等房企的房子则要慎重选择；\n绿地、华发、富力现在也很危险，而华夏幸福、蓝光、泰禾等已经暴雷的，大家千万不要碰。\n其他的“红档”和“橙档”的房企，也最好避开，避免可能遭遇停工、烂尾等糟心事。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":884151805,"gmtCreate":1631870608007,"gmtModify":1631871583050,"author":{"id":"4091605717312040","authorId":"4091605717312040","name":"中正甫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3880afca9691670904882345da5106","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4091605717312040","authorIdStr":"4091605717312040"},"htmlText":"三道红线","listText":"三道红线","text":"三道红线","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884151805","repostId":1171554288,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":882552877,"gmtCreate":1631710701299,"gmtModify":1631710701299,"author":{"id":"3573116757548117","authorId":"3573116757548117","name":"啊老张","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3487dc6346eecd645963d093508b34d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573116757548117","authorIdStr":"3573116757548117"},"htmlText":"三道红线","listText":"三道红线","text":"三道红线","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882552877","repostId":1171554288,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":882627692,"gmtCreate":1631688552016,"gmtModify":1631688552016,"author":{"id":"3475144693742650","authorId":"3475144693742650","name":"光照的果","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3475144693742650","authorIdStr":"3475144693742650"},"htmlText":"没事的，涨价去库存多来几次","listText":"没事的，涨价去库存多来几次","text":"没事的，涨价去库存多来几次","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882627692","repostId":1171554288,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":882625077,"gmtCreate":1631688161599,"gmtModify":1631688161599,"author":{"id":"3468203021460189","authorId":"3468203021460189","name":"山水画606","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e067a85b09c8d2a25df2b7f6cdc7b19","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3468203021460189","authorIdStr":"3468203021460189"},"htmlText":"都是玩游戏","listText":"都是玩游戏","text":"都是玩游戏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882625077","repostId":1171554288,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":882685085,"gmtCreate":1631685215047,"gmtModify":1631686114498,"author":{"id":"3585267009945727","authorId":"3585267009945727","name":"潘捷_5558","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2a46b4733b31d25a77fff7b4e002ffb","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch"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