UiPath: SaaS Giant In The Shadows

seekingalpha2021-11-19

Summary UiPath doesn't get the attention it deserves. Partnerships will be crucial to achieving critical growth numbers. Operationally the company has been performing. Risks are the same as any other...

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JPHC
2021-11-23
JPHC
HODL
FantasyEx
2021-11-19
FantasyEx
非常看好它
June_C
2021-11-19
June_C
Saas .. share
KAHHUAT
2021-11-19
KAHHUAT
Latest
- T0000024852:
  Hi
- KAHHUAT:
  Latest

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The company's software helps businesses to decide which office tasks can be automated using custom software. UiPath has the potential to disrupt office life as we know it and fatten profit margins for many major companies around the world.\nSource: UiPath Q2 2022 Earnings Presentation\nThe company's software utilizes AI and machine learning to come to the best financial outcomes for each customer. In many cases, office assistant and data entry jobs are the first to go with some business analysts and other key infrastructure also being labeled obsolete. Customers pay a high price for UiPath's platform because of the marginal cost benefit their software brings the customer with every headcount reduction. The next part of UiPath's job is to actually automate the task. This in turn brings in great ARR for UiPath as the customer needs to keep UiPath on its payroll to actually carry out the job they replaced.\nSource: UiPath Q2 2022 Earnings Presentation\nThe business model is genius for a couple of reasons. Firstly, by finding the companies' weak links and replacing them, UiPath is creating a moat around their software. If a company wants to move on from UiPath, it will need to rehire the people they fired, which will likely cost more than UiPath in the first place. With a large customer base and many customers paying $100K+ every year, UiPath has a space in the future work.\nPartnerships and Integrations are Vital for Operational Execution\nThe company's future success depends on partners and vendors. UiPath's business model survives off of deep technological relationships with the most important ERPs. Currently, the company has done a great job at partnering with the most important SaaS firms for many different companies in a variety of industries. UiPath has the ability to serve many different types of clients, big and small, because of how universally many SaaS programs are in business.\nSource: UiPath Q2 2022 Earnings Presentation\nUiPath needs to be integrated into all SaaS technology platforms. This is because the company's software can do a better job at tracking employee KPIs if they are integrated with company-wide software. Big technology partners such as AWS (AMZN), Oracle (ORCL), and Salesforce (CRM) will be key integrations for UiPath. At the same time, partnering with large firms that need to figure out how to slim down their operations will also be important. Companies with large numbers of employees such as Accenture (ACN) and Deloitte could use the company's software to cut down headcount and lower their overall cost of service.\nSource: UiPath Q2 2022 Earnings Presentation\nLooking at case studies clarifies the expected return of ARR for a multitude of different businesses. The longer a company remains a customer, the more money UiPath gains from that customer. This is a great business model because it gives companies a trial period to utilize UiPath's platform. The ARR doesn't lie because businesses need the company's platform and the value it brings their enterprises.\nFinancially Able and Growing\nFor a SaaS company, UiPath performs very well financially. This is due to the company's increasing ARR and high margin products. Software inherently is a high margin business and UiPath is no exception. Scaling this technology is relatively easy as word of mouth spreads fast and software is easy to install. Moving forward, I expect a solid SaaS balance sheet from UiPath.\nSource: UiPath Q2 2022 Earnings Supplemental Slides\nOne of the more concerning problems with UiPath is lack of revenue growth. Overall revenue growth in FY 2021 was impressive at over +90%. Since then revenue growth has faltered, Q3 2022 guidance matched Q4 2021 revenues. I do believe that the company can exceed expectations through ARR growth. In future quarters, revenue will be a very important metric I look at.\nSource: (UiPath Q2 2022 Earnings Supplemental Slides)\nProfitability has been a major operational bright spot for the company. By being extremely close to being consistently profitable, the business is due for a multiple expansion. In future quarters, UiPath has a real opportunity to exceed expectations. I believe UiPath's valuation will improve as revenue increases through ARR entrenchment, profitability becomes more consistent, and analysts begin to see the opportunity to own a disruptor at a discount.\nIndustry Risks are Real\nSoftware is a brutally competitive industry. Every day, it seems like there is a new rival to 'legacy' technology. In UiPath's case, I believe they actually may be different. Unlike other SaaS services, the company gains revenue from further use of their product. Instead of a flat ARR, UiPath's is scalable. This pricing technique, if used correctly, can be a massive boon to the stock moving forward. However, I am concerned about more established ERPs disrupting UiPath's first mover advantage. If Amazon wanted to develop an RPA company to serve enterprise clients, UiPath would have quite a difficult road. Amazon, Oracle, or any number of tech conglomerates have billions of dollars to dedicate towards R&D. Considering Amazon's leaps and bounds in quantum computing, UiPath may see upcoming competition. However, this hasn't happened yet and is all speculation. UiPath's innovative edge is a bit difficult to match, which will prove very promising to UiPath shareholders.\nValuation Compared to Peers\nValuing UiPath is difficult because it doesn't have any direct peers. I found 2 peers that have similar valuation profiles to UiPath. One of the peers I am using is Check Point Software (CHKP). This company develops security software and hardware products. The next peer I chose is CyberArk (CYBR). This company operates as an IT security company servicing different companies in a variety of industries. Check Point and CyberArk have similar market caps to UiPath as mid-size SaaS companies with solid technology.\nSource: UiPath SA Peers EV/Sales Chart\nUiPath is a newly public company with limited history. However, the company's EV/Sales ratio decreased by 3/4ths in just 2 quarters. This is very encouraging as it gives investors a better basis to enter UiPath. Compared to more mature peers, UiPath is slowly moving toward an EV/Sales range of 15-20. At that point, I believe analysts may re-rate the company more positively on valuation.\nSource: UiPath SA Peers Diluted Weighted Average Shares Outstanding Chart\nDilution is real and a major concern for UiPath shareholders. Increasing overall share count roughly 30% since IPO is one of the main reasons I can't give UiPath a bullish rating. Next year, when most of the IPO lockups expire, I will consider starting a position. Until then, I would avoid buying UiPath.\nConcluding Thoughts\nUiPath is a great company with a large TAM. I like UiPath's peers and growth story. I think the company will continue to sign contracts with major corporations and improve their balance sheet. One of the main concerns I have with UiPath is dilution and low revenue growth. In the coming quarters, these will be the two issues I closely examine. 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