Is Merck Stock A Buy Or Sell After FDA Advisors Narrowly Endorse Covid Pill?

Investors2021-12-01

Food and Drug Administration advisors recommended Merck's (MRK) Covid pill for some patients in late November, but Merck stock remains under pressure. The FDA's Antimicrobial Drugs Advisory Committee ...

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EdInvesting
2021-12-01
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The pill, dubbed molnupiravir, reduced the risk of hospitalization or death in mild-to-moderate Covid patients with risk factors for severe disease.\nNext, the full FDA will mull the drug. The agency isn't bound by the committee's guidance. It could also authorize the pill for a broad group, though Merck only has test results so far in unvaccinated patients. Panelists noted there are concerns about molnupiravir in pregnant women.\nMerck is going up against Pfizer(PFE). The companies tested a similar patient group. But Merck's pill reduced the risk of severe outcomes by 30% when patients began treatment within five days of symptoms appearing. Pfizer's two-pill regimen cut the risk by 89% when treating within three days.\nPrior to its Pfizer-tied dive, Merck stock was trading at a three-decade high. The company beat third-quarter expectations and offered a bullish 2021 outlook that didn't include the potential impact of the antiviral pill. The pill just gained authorization in the U.K. where it will sell under the name Lagevrio.\nMerck already has a deal with the U.S. government for 1.7 million courses of molnupiravir. Further, it has agreed to supply the U.K. with 480,000 courses of the drug. It plans to make 10 million courses in 2021 and at least 20 million in 2022.\nSo, all in all, is Merck stock a buy or a sell right now?\nMerck Stock Fundamentals: Sales Top\nDuring the third quarter, adjusted earnings climbed 28% to $1.75 per share and sales soared 20% to $13.15 billion. Both metrics beat forecasts.\nMerck also provided guidance following its Organon(OGN) spinoff. The pharma company boosted its full-year outlook to adjusted profit of $5.65-$5.70 per share on $47.4 billion to $47.9 billion in sales. Both measures topped expectations. And they don't include the potential for molnupiravir to gain authorizations in the U.S. or Europe.\nThe company's biggest single drug remains cancer treatment Keytruda. Keytruda accounted for more than a third of total third-quarter sales. Keytruda sales increased 22% to $4.53 billion. Sales of its human papillomavirus vaccine, Gardasil, soared 68% to $1.99 billion.\nBut revenue from diabetes med Januvia fell 1% to $1.34 billion. And Merck reported a 26% decline for its pneumonia vaccine, Pneumovax 23, as Covid vaccines took priority in the U.S.\nOverall, third-quarter metrics were in line withCAN SLIM rules for investing,which advise investors to look for companies with recent quarterly growth of 20%-25%, or better.\nIn the current quarter, analysts polled by FactSet expect Merck to earn $1.54 per share on $13.2 billion in sales. On a year-over-year basis, earnings would surge almost 22% and sales would rise north of 5%.\nWhat Do Annual Metrics Say About Merck?\nAs of the close on Nov. 30, Merck stock was down more than 4% for the year. Shares recently hit at least a three-decade high, but have since tumbled.\nLast year, Merck's sales grew 2.5% to $47.99 billion. That decelerated from 11% growth in 2019.\nFor 2021, analysts expect sales to rise a fraction to $48.49 billion. Income is projected to inch 2.7% higher to $5.81 a share. That follows 14% growth in 2020.\nThe stock ranks fifth by Composite Rating in the industry group of pharma companies. The 33-company Medical-Ethical Drugs group ranks a middling No. 95 out of 197 groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily.\nMerck Stock News: Merck Grabs Covid Deal\nMerck's molnupiravir is now authorized in the U.K. Merck will supply the U.K. with 480,000 courses of the drug, now selling under the brand name Lagevrio. Now that the FDA's advisors have recommended molnupiravir, the full agency will consider the drug.\nThe U.S. deal for 1.7 million courses is worth $1.2 billion to Merck. If successful, molnupiravir could hit the U.S. market before the end of the year.\nIn addition to Merck and Pfizer,Atea Pharmaceuticals(AVIR) and Enanta Pharmaceuticals(ENTA) working on oral Covid drugs.Roche(RHHBY) recently pulled out of its deal with Atea for the Covid antiviral.\nAnalysts say the pills could offer an easier route for non-hospitalized treatment of Covid than antibody drugs from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals(REGN),Eli Lilly(LLY) and Vir Biotechnology(VIR). Antibody drugs must be given by health care professionals.\nBut there is some concern that the way molnupiravir works could introduce mutations into the DNA of an unborn baby. So, FDA advisors waffled on whether to recommend its use for pregnant women.\nFurther, Merck and Gilead Sciences(GILD) began a Phase 2 study testing a combination of their oral HIV treatments. The drugs, known as islatravir and lenacapavir can stay in the body for a long time. This means patients can take medicine less frequently. In this case, the companies are testing a weekly dosing regimen.\nMerck also recently finished acquiring Acceleron.\nIn early March, President Joe Biden announced Merck would help Johnson & Johnson(JNJ) produce its Covid vaccine. Merck will receive $268.8 million from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority to help expand facility space to do so.\nIs Merck Stock A Buy Now?\nBased on CAN SLIM rules for investing, no, Merck stock is not a buy right now. Shares have round-tripped their earlier breakout and have triggered several sell signals.\nThere are further caveats. Both Merck's sales and earnings met CAN SLIM guidelines in the third quarter. Sales aren't expected to meet that mark in the current quarter.\nStill, big stocks like Merck can add gains without hitting massive growth streaks.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":603062571,"gmtCreate":1638341257058,"gmtModify":1638341257199,"author":{"id":"3569243948486771","authorId":"3569243948486771","name":"EdInvesting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f2b5d72aa406299a552424310e264b8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569243948486771","authorIdStr":"3569243948486771"},"htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603062571","repostId":1170675098,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":19,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1170675098"}