万众瞩目！美联储会议重磅来袭，美股动荡一触即发？

腾讯美股2021-06-15

美联储到底会表现出怎样的态度，不单单关乎他们自己的信誉，对于拜登总统的经济改革前景，乃至于全球金融稳定性也都有着不小的影响。最近一段时间以来，美联储的货币政策会议其实颇多都只是在走过场而已，但是本周这次却不同，突然变成了一场实实在在的考验。著名经济学家埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）撰文指出，这次大家将密切关注会议，以确定联储是否还能够继续控制住他们一直以来灌输给市场的叙事——当下...

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精彩评论

CJing
2021-06-16
CJing
看来这周不好过[流泪]
SunnyLeo
2021-06-16
SunnyLeo
总是时不时冒出来折腾一下市场🥶
- SunnyLeo:
  🥶🥶🥶
maigis
2021-06-16
maigis
所以这种情况下需要配点什么股来抵消风险呢?
- 古堡吸血伯爵回复maigis:
  [财迷]
- maigis:
  [强] [比心]
- 古堡吸血伯爵:
  [疑问]
韭菜一般
2021-06-16
韭菜一般
等待上车
神都殺
2021-06-16
神都殺
[微笑]
sky老夫子
2021-06-16
sky老夫子
好

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The Federal Reserve meeting hit hard and US stocks were on the verge of turmoil?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4a62fa15575430230d2602713536754","symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"美联储到底会表现出怎样的态度，不单单关乎他们自己的信誉，对于拜登总统的经济改革前景，乃至于全球金融稳定性也都有着不小的影响。\n\n\n最近一段时间以来，美联储的货币政策会议其实颇多都只是在走过场而已，但是本周这次却不同，突然变成了一场实实在在的考验。著名经济学家埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）撰文指出，这次大家将密切关注会议，以确定联储是否还能够继续控制住他们一直以来灌输给市场的叙事——当下的通货膨胀高企只是暂时性的。\n联储到底会表现出怎样的态度，不单单关乎他们自己的信誉，对于拜登总统的经济改革前景，乃至于全球金融稳定性也都有着不小的影响。\n局面的不断发展已经将联储逼进了一个自我制造的困境之中——他们一直以来都承诺只有看到真实的证据，显示就业和通货膨胀都已经达到目标水平，才会考虑收紧货币政策，单单预期的提升是不足以成为行动理由的，这也就是所谓基于结果的政策架构；然而现在，经济复苏日益凸显出强势，恰恰对他们的承诺构成了挑战。\n虽然各种较为长期的变数依然存在，但是客观来说，美国经济复苏的透明度正在日益提升。\n无论是公共还是私营部门，消费都在大幅增长，带动总需求迅速提升，而与此同时，企业投资和制造出口都呈现出抬头的态势。应该说，供应面已经对需求的变化做出了反应，但是力度依然不够充分。\n由此就造成了一系列的问题：供应瓶颈、库存问题，以及交通运输方面的挑战等。与此同时，企业增加人手的旺盛需求也撞上了冰冷的现实——虽然空缺岗位的数量达到了创纪录的水平，但是有能力或者有意愿去填补这些缺口的人却太少了。\n这些趋势当中，有一部分只是短期性的，而且也必须在短期内得到扭转。不然的话，工资和价格恐怕就将大幅度上涨，产生一系列消极影响。\n上周的经济数据要点之一就是消费者价格报告，后者再度显示，美国的通货膨胀增长速度超过了预期，同比增幅5月间达到了5%，核心部分同比增幅为3.8%。通货膨胀抬头的速度要超过许多人的预想，由此再度得到了证实。\n可是与此同时，虽然大家对通货膨胀的规模和发展速度都越来越感到担心，但是美国政府债券的收益率却迅速降低了。\n有些意见认为，这正说明市场开始同意美国央行的叙事，即当前的价格上涨只是暂时性的，因此这对于联储其实是一个好消息。虽然这样的解读不能说没有道理，但是对此寄予过高期待显然是站不住脚的。\n事实上，过去几年以来，市场上最响亮的警告声之一就是，各家央行高度反传统的政策会导致收益率受到重大和长期的压制，扭曲市场信号。具体来说，这种作用有两种发生的途径。\n首先，央行大力度地，而且是可预见地持续购买证券，让市场上许多人感到安心，相信对债券收益率的压制力将长期存在，尤其是央行还充分证明，他们这么做没有丝毫利润方面的考虑，因此也根本不在乎买进时的价格是否过高。其次，超低的基准利率之下，投资者为了寻求更高的收益率，只好转向那些更长期的债券。\n当央行不但重复着这样的操作，而且还重复强调其超级宽松的政策前瞻指引，这两种效应就会体现得更加明显。\n就联储的具体情况而言，这种吹风大致是有三个要点：一是反复强调自己根本就没有想过任何缩减购债力度的可能性；二是承诺零利率会保持尽可能长的时间；三是转向基于结果的货币政策架构。\n在这三者的联合作用之下，便出现了虽然经济现实发出警告，但是市场依然对超级宽松金融环境预期信心满满的一幕。\n这种流动性配置的错位当然是受到股市投资者，以及企业债券和新兴市场债券投资者的欢迎的。这种架构的最主要影响之一，就是事实上鼓励大家去各种风险较高的领域寻找机会。\n不过不必说，这种架构也有其内涵的风险。事实上，局面的成败是高度取决于联储的判断力的，即美国的通货膨胀猛增必须被证明只是暂时性的，而这一点，单单靠意愿显然是不够的。一旦联储出现了失误，则他们的声誉就会严重受损，而后者对于他们未来政策效力的发挥是至关重要的。\n比如，联储很大的风险之一就在于，一旦他们发现自己判断失误，就只能被迫迅速踩下货币政策刹车，使得衰退发生的可能性加大。此外，未来金融市场大幅波动也是完全可以想见的，这显然也不利于维持经济的稳定高增长。\n最后，这种不均衡的政策组合还会对拜登政府的各种经济和社会改革起到釜底抽薪的作用，使得改革消除贫困，提升生产率的目标难以达成。\n如果觉得市场对通货膨胀风险的反应并不剧烈，是说明后者原本也不成其为威胁，那就大错特错了。事实上，这是对联储能力的一种勉勉强强的信任——市场相信他们能够在更长时间内扭曲价格。可是，这想法本身就构成了一种风险，也许大家都该得到提醒，知道在通货膨胀问题上，大家的思路必须再开阔一点，必须保持适当的谦恭。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":160769796,"gmtCreate":1623806803315,"gmtModify":1631890652365,"author":{"id":"3572352972777887","authorId":"3572352972777887","name":"CJing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8eb08c61d4d490633fceeafe3f28fa2","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"看来这周不好过[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"看来这周不好过[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"看来这周不好过[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160769796","repostId":1169602512,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":160651502,"gmtCreate":1623797192106,"gmtModify":1634028212506,"author":{"id":"3574831020474056","authorId":"3574831020474056","name":"SunnyLeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e6a3a9725451bfd426b0bdbb68be5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"总是时不时冒出来折腾一下市场🥶","listText":"总是时不时冒出来折腾一下市场🥶","text":"总是时不时冒出来折腾一下市场🥶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160651502","repostId":1169602512,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4790800,"gmtCreate":1623797199316,"gmtModify":1635318174117,"authorId":3574831020474056,"author":{"id":3574831020474056,"authorId":3574831020474056,"name":"SunnyLeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e6a3a9725451bfd426b0bdbb68be5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":160651502,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"🥶🥶🥶","text":"🥶🥶🥶","html":"🥶🥶🥶"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":160662976,"gmtCreate":1623796262895,"gmtModify":1631889020087,"author":{"id":"3574303298498844","authorId":"3574303298498844","name":"maigis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d3cdf4124d95b8b66db647d3a424254","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"所以这种情况下需要配点什么股来抵消风险呢?","listText":"所以这种情况下需要配点什么股来抵消风险呢?","text":"所以这种情况下需要配点什么股来抵消风险呢?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160662976","repostId":1169602512,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4790750,"gmtCreate":1623797004133,"gmtModify":1631889020118,"authorId":3585741849082080,"author":{"id":3585741849082080,"authorId":3585741849082080,"name":"古堡吸血伯爵","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3574303298498844,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3574303298498844,"authorId":3574303298498844,"name":"maigis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d3cdf4124d95b8b66db647d3a424254","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":160662976,"type":1,"supId":4790711,"prevId":4790731,"content":"[财迷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