Bull Run Enters Late Cycle

Seeking Alpha2021-12-13

Summary The short-term correction has probably not ended yet. Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential. The Fed could face tough challenges ...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

kuehlapis
2021-12-13
kuehlapis
time in the market, not timing the market!
kuehlapis
2021-12-13
kuehlapis
time in the market, not timing the market!
- bernardtayet:
  Fully agreed with your insight
Huatkor
2021-12-13
Huatkor
Oh no
MHh
2021-12-13
MHh
The long standing truth is market is unpredictable! No one expected the market to recover so quickly after the last bear and continue on the bull run![Sly]
- MHh:
  [Smile]
- Gladys8jk:
  😅
Bonds
2021-12-13
Bonds
Bulls run
- Aoyjai:
  And run and run and huff and puff …..
RieslingHawk
2021-12-13
RieslingHawk
Market tank after J Powell speaks on Wednesday

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243

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line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-13 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","article_id":"1169099899","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","pubTimestamp":1639367858,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"牛市进入晚周期","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":604234114,"gmtCreate":1639400740099,"gmtModify":1639400747824,"author":{"id":"3574029017802033","authorId":"3574029017802033","name":"kuehlapis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/732ffeea71fc0732b84f029cc0e8263e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574029017802033","authorIdStr":"3574029017802033"},"htmlText":"time in the market, not timing the market!","listText":"time in the market, not timing the market!","text":"time in the market, not timing the market!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604234114","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604234015,"gmtCreate":1639400714658,"gmtModify":1639400715893,"author":{"id":"3574029017802033","authorId":"3574029017802033","name":"kuehlapis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/732ffeea71fc0732b84f029cc0e8263e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574029017802033","authorIdStr":"3574029017802033"},"htmlText":"time in the market, not timing the market!","listText":"time in the market, not timing the market!","text":"time in the market, not timing the market!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604234015","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7045114,"gmtCreate":1639925268913,"gmtModify":1639925268948,"authorId":3583377018896117,"author":{"id":3583377018896117,"idStr":"3583377018896117","authorId":3583377018896117,"name":"bernardtayet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e8c1fc37a4bff2a94af98953cff267","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604234015,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Fully agreed with your insight","text":"Fully agreed with your insight","html":"Fully agreed with your insight"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604203957,"gmtCreate":1639396808290,"gmtModify":1639396808841,"author":{"id":"3581919183376534","authorId":"3581919183376534","name":"Huatkor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3897aace055b5fa9f58089c1e880d8","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581919183376534","authorIdStr":"3581919183376534"},"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604203957","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604626913,"gmtCreate":1639390083250,"gmtModify":1639390095933,"author":{"id":"4091758936365950","authorId":"4091758936365950","name":"MHh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b2feced9ef5dcc9e95997d1f4db280","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4091758936365950","authorIdStr":"4091758936365950"},"htmlText":"The long standing truth is market is unpredictable! 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No one expected the market to recover so quickly after the last bear and continue on the bull run![Sly]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604626913","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6964007,"gmtCreate":1639394340396,"gmtModify":1639394340477,"authorId":4091758936365950,"author":{"id":4091758936365950,"idStr":"4091758936365950","authorId":4091758936365950,"name":"MHh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b2feced9ef5dcc9e95997d1f4db280","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604626913,"type":1,"supId":6963903,"prevId":0,"content":"[Smile]","text":"[Smile]","html":"[Smile]"},{"id":6963903,"gmtCreate":1639393251704,"gmtModify":1639393251802,"authorId":4094787128284850,"author":{"id":4094787128284850,"idStr":"4094787128284850","authorId":4094787128284850,"name":"Gladys8jk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789bbf473867763cd44be080e269826d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604626913,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"😅","text":"😅","html":"😅"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604685253,"gmtCreate":1639387499077,"gmtModify":1639387924176,"author":{"id":"3582366643541036","authorId":"3582366643541036","name":"Bonds","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7927febac32666ca13d21b532f0ff6f6","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582366643541036","authorIdStr":"3582366643541036"},"htmlText":"Bulls run&nbsp;","listText":"Bulls run&nbsp;","text":"Bulls run","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604685253","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6964218,"gmtCreate":1639396458270,"gmtModify":1639396458379,"authorId":3578371382142637,"author":{"id":3578371382142637,"idStr":"3578371382142637","authorId":3578371382142637,"name":"Aoyjai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcf5c34602d2433f3133ca6c6fece6a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604685253,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"And run and run and huff and puff …..","text":"And run and run and huff and puff …..","html":"And run and run and huff and puff ….."}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604688607,"gmtCreate":1639387051617,"gmtModify":1639387222976,"author":{"id":"3578973717832794","authorId":"3578973717832794","name":"RieslingHawk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5390eacc9599c6447d4c42f983fcc76","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578973717832794","authorIdStr":"3578973717832794"},"htmlText":"Market tank after J Powell speaks on Wednesday&nbsp;","listText":"Market tank after J Powell speaks on Wednesday&nbsp;","text":"Market tank after J Powell speaks on Wednesday","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604688607","repostId":1169099899,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":243,"commentSize":27,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1169099899"}