Lucid Stock: Down 33% From Its November High, It's Time To Turn Bullish

Seeking Alpha2021-12-29

SummaryLucid stock has dropped 33% from its November high.The company recently completed a highly successful convertible notes offering, which was fully subscribed.We discuss why we think it's time ...

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精彩评论

MFME
2021-12-29
MFME
$1000
SS22
2021-12-29
SS22
Hmm
Chororo
2021-12-29
Chororo
.
- Chororo:
  .
wallence82
2021-12-29
wallence82
Agree
- Fonkytonks:
  k
- seanisright:
  but cheap can get cheaper
- SS22:
  yes
- tbun:
  ok

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We also discussed our thesis in detail, so readers can refer to it if they need a primer.Its stock was battered as it suffered the double whammy of growth stock retracement and the recent SEC scrutiny over its SPAC combination.While the stock is still priced at a premium, we believe that it seems more reasonably valued now. Moreover, being priced at a premium has not deterred institutional investors from fully snapping up its convertible notes offering, plus its option.Therefore, we believe it's apt to discuss why we have revised our rating to Buy.Why We Are Turning Bullish on LCID NowLucid Group estimates that it will produce 500K vehicles by 2030. However, it has planned for only 20K and 50K units by 2022 and 2023, respectively. Therefore, we believe that LCID's long-term production forecast is highly speculative at best for now. Nevertheless, readers should be clear that it doesn't mean that Lucid cannot meet its target. The company has clearly demonstrated the engineering expertise to produce a world-class luxury EV. Having its Air Dream winning the 2022 MotorTrend Car of the Year was just the start of its objective towards the $25K mass-market EV. Being the newly crowned \"range king\" is certainly no mean feat. It's a hallmark of world-class engineering talent that we should give sufficient due credit to CEO Peter Rawlinson & Co. It shows the clear supremacy of Lucid's amazing powertrain efficiency. While its base model Air Pure is priced at a significant premium (from $77.4K), we should expect more iterations moving forward. Rawlinson's strategy of \"moving down the chain\" is a well-proven model that Tesla (TSLA) has perfected. While one can argue that Lucid is no Tesla (at least not yet), we also can argue that the strategy can work. Moreover, Lucid's vertically-integrated stack gives the company the critical advantage to work wonders with its powertrain efficiency. Rawlinson emphasized (edited):Lexus did it. Tesla did it. Great brands have started with a high-end product and gradually made that more accessible.Step one of that plan is we use efficiency to create long-range. Then, we can then produce a product like Air Pure. We still need to get the cost of the battery pack and battery cells down through mass industrialization through the economy of scale. Because the battery pack is the most expensive single component in an electric car, it means that we can go for a competitive range — say, at 400 miles in the future — with a smaller pack, which is going to cost us less. In the future, I could buy cells at, say, under $100 a kilowatt-hour, maybe $90. I could then buy the cells for that pack for $2,300. I could build a pack for under $3,000. And then I could have a $25,000 car. That's the future. (Insider)Nevertheless,BloombergNEF estimates that we will observe a slight increase in lithium-ion battery pack cost to $135 in 2022, up from $132 this year. It also will mark the first time we see a nominal increase in battery pack prices in the last ten years due to the spike in raw material costs. Notably, it expects prices to be half of what we observe today by 2030. Hence, we trust that Rawlinson will get that mass-market car out in due course as it ramps production.Can Lucid Ramp Production Successfully?Let's put it this way. We think Lucid still needs to prove its production ramp. Getting to 50K by 2023 will be a good start. It has proven its technology, but it still needs to prove its manufacturing expertise. But, Lucid has got all the ingredients to be successful. It's riding the green tidal wave of mainstream EV adoption in the US from 2022. The regulatory climate is positive toward EVs. General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) will ramp their EV deliveries from 2022. Rivian (RIVN) is ramping production of their amazing EV trucks. Tesla is estimated to reach a 2M production run rate next year. Some investors believe that more intense competition will crush new upstarts like Lucid, which has not proven their volume production expertise. The concerns are valid. Manufacturing is a different ball game. And we're not saying that Lucid will not meet production hurdles along the way. Investors should assume that the company will suffer from hiccups and bottlenecks. But, importantly, the competitive landscape is actually conducive for Lucid and not prohibitive. The US EV penetration rate is just under 3%. Furthermore, according to IHS Markit, the US EV share of new car sales is estimated to reach 5% in 2022. The estimates also are in line with Bloomberg NEF's 5.2% penetration rate. The EV penetration rates in the No. 1 market (China) and the No. 2 market (Europe) are already in double digits. Therefore, the US EV market is really still in its infancy. Yes, there will be competition. But to say that the competition will stifle Lucid, which has proven its automobile technology is not credible, we think. The US EV market is just getting started, and Lucid can certainly ride the secular trend well if it can ramp production successfully.Notably, institutional investors are very confident that Lucid can do it. The company emphasized recently that its convertible notes offering, including its option, has been fully subscribed. Therefore, the company has managed to raise $1.99B in net proceeds, which will be used to ramp production, among other uses. It's important to note that its conversion price of $54.78 per share is 41.7% above its last closing price, which must be converted by December 2026. Therefore, we believe it's a clear vote of confidence the institutional community has given Lucid. The company was debt free coming into the transaction, with a cash and short-term investments balance of $4.8B. It has given Lucid tremendous financial flexibility to price its offering to benefit shareholders and the company at the same time. Investors should note that \"the notes will accrue interest at a rate of 1.25% per annum.\" Therefore, it's a great and affordable offering, we think. CFO Sherry House had also emphasized the company's rock-solid balance sheet in its recent earnings. It would help the company get the affordable funding it needs to ramp CapEx for production, as she added (edited):So, we're sitting in a terrific place today with $4.8 billion as of September 30, that's going to get us well through 2022. You're going to see a large capex increase happening next year. Actually, multiples ofcapexare going to be deployed next year vs. this year. So we're already doing that acceleration.We do think that there is increasing availability of capital to us today from a lot of different sources. You'll note that we still haven't even taken debt on.So we have the opportunity to provide terrific loan to value there if we chose to take on debt. So we're feeling really good about what we could do, and we feel like we are increasing the company's ability to deploy capital efficiently and quickly. (Lucid's FQ3'21 earnings call)Why Buy LCID Stock at Such a High Premium?Lucid stock & peers EV/FY23 Revenue comps. Data source: S&P Capital IQLucid stock's valuation (EV/FY23 Revenue) has dropped significantly from the previous time we covered it. Although still ahead of Tesla stock's valuation, it has dropped back broadly in line with its pure-play peers. Also, it's no longer trading at 18x FY23 revenue, as we noted previously. Moreover, readers should note that Lucid has committed to a run rate of just 50K vehicles by 2023. Therefore, even if we consider its FY23 revenue multiple as a basis, it might even understate its medium-term run rate when it successfully ramps.Moreover, the \"green tidal wave\" is expected to lift the momentum of EV stocks in the US market from 2022, given its massive opportunity. Therefore, we think valuations will continue to stay high for the pure-play EV makers, who don't have to transit their ICE production lines. Valuations like this are \"perfect\" to issue convertible notes or equity offerings.Bank of America also highlighted that an elevated valuation environment creates a flywheel effect on the pure-play makers' stock prices. It helps them to fund growth cheaply. And in turn, it can help drive up the stock price as they realize their production growth. BofA added (edited):Capital for EV OEMs is widely available and cheap in current market conditions. Therefore, momentum/support for many of the stocks, especially Tesla and Lucid, will persist. A 10% dilutive equity raise for Lucid, meanwhile, could fund over three incremental plants and more than 750,000 incremental units of capacity, making the company a relatively large global luxury automaker. (Benzinga)Hence, we believe Lucid investors should not be worried about its premium valuation. Instead, Lucid has capitalized on its premium valuation with its highly successful notes offering. It proves that the institutional support for Lucid's business model is very robust, and that's critical.Nevertheless, the company still needs to prove its production ramp capability. However, we think its valuation, coupled with its success in acquiring cheap funding, makes its current price a Buy.Therefore, we revise our rating on LCID stock to Buy for speculative investors 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