波动性将主宰华尔街，美联储成最大风险？

FX168财经 2021-06-04

随着经济复苏和通胀升温，对美联储提前收紧政策的猜测层出不穷。值此之际，一位顶级投资者预计，未来几个月，波动性将主宰华尔街。 PNC Financial首席投资长Amanda Agati将市场估值过高、美联储缩减购债规模的言论以及刺激措施结束列为市场中令人不安的因素。 “你必须非常非常小心地选择你的风险敞口，”Agati周四对CNBC表示，“我们不认为会出现涨潮，让所有的船都涨起来——在股票和固定...

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精彩评论

Zongzi_xin
2021-06-04
Zongzi_xin
赶紧破吧，，，，[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]
- Daniel_bao:
  [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]
- 南风知我意吹梦到西洲:
  必须破
- 南风知我意吹梦到西洲:
  求点赞，求回复

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Agati将市场估值过高、","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"Volatility will dominate Wall Street and the Federal Reserve will become the biggest risk?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc79b697ba54eea854963d37e805c84","symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"随着经济复苏和通胀升温，对美联储提前收紧政策的猜测层出不穷。值此之际，一位顶级投资者预计，未来几个月，波动性将主宰华尔街。\nPNC Financial首席投资长Amanda Agati将市场估值过高、美联储缩减购债规模的言论以及刺激措施结束列为市场中令人不安的因素。\n“你必须非常非常小心地选择你的风险敞口，”Agati周四对CNBC表示，“我们不认为会出现涨潮，让所有的船都涨起来——在股票和固定收益的估值都如此高的情况下，肯定不会。”\n她的预测中有很大一部分是关于目前影响股票和债券的“不寻常”波动动态。\nAgati称，芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)波动率指数(VIX)已回到历史平均水平。该指数被视为衡量市场恐慌程度的指标，反映未来一个月的波动性。但是她指出，所有的合约仍然高于大流行袭击美国之前的2020年1月。\n与此同时，阿加蒂发现，债券市场的波动率指数——美林移动指数(Merrill Lynch MOVE Index)正处于2020年春季的高点。\nAgati警告说，这两种趋势预示着未来更大的价格波动。\n“我们可能会看到比正常情况更大的价格波动，”Agati说，她管理着1750亿美元的资产。\n她认为美联储的政策是市场面临的最大整体风险。\n“我真的不认为通胀是市场未来发展的关键风险，”Agati说，“我们实际上认为，最近我们开始听到一些美联储官员说了一个由五个字母组成的词，那就是‘缩减购债(taper)’。”\nAgati预计，随着刺激措施停止，Reddit风波引发的高投机性交易(包括AMC和GameStop的交易)将在夏季结束前解除。\n“这是一个善意的提醒，表明在大流行期间，市场确实受到了大量政策调整和刺激措施的支撑，”Agati说，“我们将在9月份面临财政悬崖，因此我认为届时这将对小市值敞口造成相当有意义的改变。”\n为了获得最可靠的收益，她建议投资者将目光投向海外。Agati发现新兴市场很有吸引力。她继续持有该地区的股票，并增加了对该地区的投资。\n“这是对抗通胀背景的一种很好的对冲手段，”她说，“如果你把缩小范围，看看更长期的增长前景，它是股票资产类别中最亮的一颗星，从经济和收益角度来看，它的增长基数肯定比其他发达国家高得多。”\nAgati的波动率预测可能不包括官方的市场修正警告，但这显然是她担心的事情。\n“如果你看看历史分析和数据，我们早就应该进行一次有意义的调整了，上一次标普500出现这种情况是去年9月，”Agati说。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":116110624,"gmtCreate":1622780167368,"gmtModify":1634098073984,"author":{"id":"3582886189119499","authorId":"3582886189119499","name":"Zongzi_xin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c64ded7a73c4b69648caff1c81d5683","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582886189119499","authorIdStr":"3582886189119499"},"htmlText":"赶紧破吧，，，，[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"赶紧破吧，，，，[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"赶紧破吧，，，，[微笑] 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