Can Tesla Stock Reach $1000 As Momentum Returns?

seekingalpha2021-09-03

Summary Tesla stock started 2021 on the wrong footing but has since recovered strongly as it outperformed General Motors and Ford in the last three months. Investors should move on to using EBIT ...

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精彩评论

小狗1122
2021-09-05
小狗1122
The crucial point in time.it will be reached 1000 sooner or later. but it just depends on the time
Tanyl
2021-09-05
Tanyl
Tesla sure can reach > $1000 per share
- 21Clifton:
  那必须
- Johnsonk:
  你是收到了马斯克内部邮件了么
- 21Clifton:
  目标三千
meowx3
2021-09-04
meowx3
Just a matter of time
- koolgal:
  Can't wait! Tesla to the moon👍😉🌛🌛🌛
Mhong
2021-09-04
Mhong
Like & comment
Tanyl
2021-09-03
Tanyl
I strongly believe
- RYukyo:
  yes
lowzihong02
2021-09-03
lowzihong02
like n comm for same
- cutemiao:
  Interesting!! Like plse

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(TSLA) receives one of the highest coverage by the Street as 33 analysts pitched in with their thesis on Tesla, which we think is arguably one of the most contentious stocks in the US with a target price that has found little agreement as the Street's best minds derived a wide target price range from $540 to $860, including 14 very bullish/bullish ratings, 12 neutral ratings, and 7 very bearish/bearish ones.\nStreet's mean target price and ratings. Data source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nIn case we forgot to mention, Ark Invest's super Tesla bull CEO/CIO Cathie Wood recently defended her thesis on Tesla and even emphasized that she didn't see any bubble forming in Tesla's case as the Street's indecisiveness on the company (which is also reflected in the neutral rating above) reflected the market's uncertain position where she believes is conducive for Tesla to climb the wall of worry and move towards the firm's2025 target price of $3,000.\nIn this article, we help our readers understand whether Tesla stock can reach $1,000 (first) and the key underlying factors to consider to reach the key milestone.\nBefore discussing further, in case you are new to Tesla, you may consider reading up on our recent articles on Tesla to help you understand Tesla's business model and market opportunity in greater detail (link to the articles are appendedhereandhere).\nTesla Stock Recent Performance\nTSLA Vs. F Vs. GM 3M performance (as of 02 Sep 21).\nTesla Vs. VLUE Vs. VUG 3M performance (as of 02 Sep 21).\nThere is no doubt that Tesla stock has significantly underperformed the broad market in 2021 with a 4.83% YTD return as of 02 Sep 21. However, the stock has been performing well lately, as it notched an 18.6% return over the last 3 months, which significantly outperformed Ford (F) stock -11% return, and General Motors (GM) stock -17.1% return, as the growth-to-value rotation's momentum fizzled out spectacularly, with growth investing regaining center stage among dip buyers as readers can easily observe from Vanguard Growth ETF's (VUG) outperformance against iShares Value Factor ETF (VLUE) in the last 3 months.\nTherefore, with momentum having returned to growth investing and Tesla stock, we think it's an opportune time for us to help investors to consider whether Tesla could be on its way to break its previous post-split all-time high (ATH) of $900 and reach the $1,000 milestone.\nFocus on Tesla's EBIT Growth\nQuarterly regulatory credits revenue. Data source: Company filings\nTesla's Q2 numbers rebutted a key criticism that detractors often labeled: that the company depends mainly on regulatory credits to generate its profits. In the recent earnings release, Tesla reported a highly impressive quarterly operating income of $1.36B, representing an impressive YoY increase of 308.3%. Moreover, despite Tesla posting its weakest performance for regulatory credits sales of $354M over the last 5 quarters, which clearly demonstrates that the company is making huge strides in its underlying operating performances as it scales.\nLTM EBIT. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nImportantly, the company has steadily improved its EBIT profile as it scales its operations and achieved an LTM EBIT margin of 7.8% on an EBIT of $3.25B.\nTherefore, we think investors must consider how Tesla will grow its EBIT profitability moving forward to understand how to value Tesla appropriately and test the thesis on whether Tesla stock has the valuation foundation to reach the $1,000 milestone.\nHow Fast is Tesla Expected to Grow its EBIT Next?\nStreet's mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEstimates CAGR (FY21 to FY25). Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nReaders should be able to easily glean from the above where it's clear that even the \"neutral\" Street analysts expect Tesla's operating performance to continue to shine moving forward as revenue is expected to reach $120.4B by FY25 (which is 17.2% of Ark's $700B FY25 forecast), which would represent an impressive CAGR of 24.4%.\nFurthermore, if investors consider the revenue CAGR of General Motors (5.15%), Toyota (3.14%) (TM), and Volkswagen (4.33%) (OTCPK:VWAGY) over the same period, the Street is certainly expecting Tesla to continue marching forward strongly in its quest to expand its budding electric vehicles (EV) leadership in the automotive market which is undergoing an immense transformation as the legacy automakers are busy preparing for their massive pivot to the EV market in the next few years.\nWhile we think Tesla's expected revenue CAGR certainly looks impressive, what's even more important is that its EBIT and EBITDA are expected to grow even faster than its revenue, as the CAGR for EBIT and EBITDA is expected to reach 43.8% and 26.7%, respectively.\nInvestors who have been used to looking at revenue multiples (EV/Rev or Price/Sales) to value Tesla previously are encouraged to consider valuing Tesla using either EBITDA or EBIT multiples to arrive at meaningful valuation conclusions given the company's expected outperformance in EBIT or EBITDA growth.\nTo help our readers to understand how they can look at Tesla using either of these two metrics, in the following section, we would present our valuation model that considers a blended comp set, as well as a comp set that considers Tesla as a Tech company with software as a focus for our readers to make sense of the company's valuation.\nMaking Sense of Tesla's EBIT Multiples\nWe have elected to use EBIT multiples for this discussion. We consider it more meaningful for comparison given Tesla's relatively high CapEx margins, which is expected for an automaker.\nAutomotive Blended comps set. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nSoftware comps set. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nLet us first give a quick introduction to the logic behind both comps sets. The first one is a composite set that comprises some of Tesla's automotive peers. Readers should be able to glean that based on the forward multiples (FY+3 or CY24) of Tesla's pure-play electric peers such as Nio Inc. (NIO) and BYD Company Ltd (OTCPK:BYDDF), Tesla's EV/FY24 EBIT multiple of 64.7x didn't seem unreasonable especially as the company is expected to grow its EBIT much faster and have higher margins than the peers listed in the automotive comps set.\nNext, when we positioned Tesla, Inc. against the leading and emerging software peers, we also didn't find Tesla's CY24 EBIT multiple as excessive either. However, we certainly think it aligns with the peers listed in the comps set as Tesla's EBIT growth rate is impressive. Therefore we think it deserves to be rated in line with emerging software leaders like Palantir (PLTR) or Zoom (ZM), even though its EBIT margins are lower than its software counterparts.\nFair value computation (with reference to automotive blended comps). Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nIn arriving at Tesla's fair value, we rounded down our selected EBIT multiple to 60x at the midpoint and derived a fair value of about $713. Based on the closing price of $739, there is a slight potential downside of -3.6% for TSLA.\nWe think our analysis shows that Tesla's tremendous EBIT growth and progress has been the key pillar underpinning its premium valuation, which didn't look out of line with its pure-play EV peers or the software counterparts.\nSo, if we consider Tesla to be fairly valued right now using estimates up to FY24, then what could drive the stock to reach its $1,000 in the next few years?\nMarket Momentum and Growth Optimism\nSeeking Alpha Quant Rating. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nReaders can observe clearly that apart from the value factor, Tesla is rated impressively in the other important areas, especially for Growth and Profitability, as it received the best possible A+ rating. On the other hand, we think TSLA received an F grade for Value, mainly because the quant system compared it against the automotive sector, where the legacy automakers' relatively low valuations affected Tesla's rating.\nMomentum Grade. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nImportantly, TSLA's 3M momentum grade of A clearly underscores the huge improvement in upward momentum for the stock as the bulls have been gaining traction in their quest to return the stock to its ATH that was achieved in Jan 21. Unfortunately, we think some investors often do not account for the power of momentum in their analysis, leading to a bearish stance at important inflection points of returning upward momentum for Tesla stock.\nEven though we think valuation is an important component driving stock prices (and valuation is a highly subjective matter for Tesla, as readers could easily refer to the wide range in the Street's forecasts to understand this), readers need to understand that investors' optimism for its growth prospects are crucial factors to consider as this drives momentum. In Tesla's case, we believe these bullish investors consider the huge market opportunities not just in the EV market, but also the company's prospects in autonomous driving, in robotaxi, in insurance, in energy, among others that are key driving forces behind their growth optimism that Tesla would be able to outperform the market's expectations, which would lead to further value expansion.\nThe key risk here for investors to note is that we think bearish investors correctly point out that Tesla still seems far away from achieving these goals. Without these, bearish investors think there's no way that Tesla would be able to sustain its premium valuation.\nOn the other hand, we have also shown that Tesla's current valuation may not seem out of line with its other pure-play EV peers, and so the bulls can certainly justify Tesla's current valuation. What's more challenging for investors is to present a path towards the $1,000 milestone. In this case, we think neither the bulls nor the bears could put forward a convincing fundamental argument right now based on realizing Tesla's market opportunity.\nTSLA Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis”\nTSLA weekly chart.\nWe highlighted previously that despite all the negative press and bearish shoutouts in the market, Tesla stock has never failed to deliver since the COVID-19 market bottom. We are not talking about the fantastic returns that TSLA provided its investors with its monstrous run in 2020, but about the robust long-term momentum that we can clearly observe in Tesla's price action.\nThe rotation in Feb 21 (1st bottom) and May 21 (second bottom) created enough negative sentiments in the market for the stock back then, which not only took out the late bullish investors who were chasing the rally but also bearish investors who were lured into the weak sentiments in Feb 21 and May 21 to adopt a bearish against the EV leader as the strong buyers returned to shake out these bearish bets quickly.\nBear traps are potent methods used by strong and astute market participants to lure and trap bearish investors at the right time to profit off their negative sentiments and turn the stock around for them to go long just when these unsuspecting bearish investors expect the weak sentiments to carry on. Readers need to go back to the coverage of Tesla during Feb and May to find out just how bearish the market was back then. The double bottom price action in May was a bullish signal for Tesla. Unfortunately, many investors who do not have a strong grounding in reading price action often fail to spot these important signals that the market gives away from time to time.\nSo, Can Tesla Reach $1,000?\nFirst, we are Tesla shareholders and have a good margin of safety from the current price. Therefore we are very comfortable holding the remainder of our positions as we have taken profit along the way to protect our capital and would leave the rest of it as a speculative bet on Tesla's future, just in case Ark's $3,000 FY25 price target comes true (as they had done so the first time around). We don't think anyone has a crystal ball to be certain that Tesla can reach $1,000 or even $2,000, or when that would happen.\nDespite that, we have presented our arguments for Tesla's current valuation, arguments for its momentum, price action, and long-term uptrend bias that we think is likely to point Tesla on a path towards $1,000 more than going back to $500. We hope you get our gist.\nLastly, based on the current valuations and price action (it has moved off from our preferred buy point), wemaintain our neutral rating on Teslafor now.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":814211035,"gmtCreate":1630822240127,"gmtModify":1630822240127,"author":{"id":"3560632730543985","authorId":"3560632730543985","name":"小狗1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80f2ee274d56c380ab8b3789038f83b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560632730543985","authorIdStr":"3560632730543985"},"htmlText":"The crucial point in time.it will be reached 1000 sooner or later.&nbsp;but it just depends on the&nbsp;time","listText":"The crucial point in time.it will be reached 1000 sooner or later.&nbsp;but it just depends on the&nbsp;time","text":"The crucial point in time.it will be reached 1000 sooner or later. but it just depends on the time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814211035","repostId":1168724079,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":814296621,"gmtCreate":1630819992963,"gmtModify":1632905696446,"author":{"id":"4087109808120260","authorId":"4087109808120260","name":"Tanyl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174329973340cf0f5b68791ee5b08afd","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087109808120260","authorIdStr":"4087109808120260"},"htmlText":"Tesla sure can reach &gt;&nbsp;$1000 per share","listText":"Tesla sure can reach &gt;&nbsp;$1000 per share","text":"Tesla sure can reach > $1000 per share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814296621","repostId":1168724079,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5760530,"gmtCreate":1630835093675,"gmtModify":1630835093675,"authorId":3546599737343263,"author":{"id":3546599737343263,"idStr":"3546599737343263","authorId":3546599737343263,"name":"21Clifton","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5abcb50c876dfc33f477e9a005a11bcd","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.04.15","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":814296621,"type":1,"supId":5760195,"prevId":0,"content":"那必须","text":"那必须","html":"那必须"},{"id":5760527,"gmtCreate":1630834886563,"gmtModify":1630834886563,"authorId":3563357612600728,"author":{"id":3563357612600728,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorId":3563357612600728,"name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":814296621,"type":1,"supId":5760195,"prevId":0,"content":"你是收到了马斯克内部邮件了么","text":"你是收到了马斯克内部邮件了么","html":"你是收到了马斯克内部邮件了么"},{"id":5760195,"gmtCreate":1630831140156,"gmtModify":1630831140156,"authorId":3546599737343263,"author":{"id":3546599737343263,"idStr":"3546599737343263","authorId":3546599737343263,"name":"21Clifton","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5abcb50c876dfc33f477e9a005a11bcd","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.04.15","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":814296621,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"目标三千","text":"目标三千","html":"目标三千"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":814991066,"gmtCreate":1630736852655,"gmtModify":1631883982152,"author":{"id":"3564622915347576","authorId":"3564622915347576","name":"meowx3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed62fdc20a8546ffe194561acd28b33f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564622915347576","authorIdStr":"3564622915347576"},"htmlText":"Just 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