Micron Technology: Expect More Of These Rallies

Seeking Alpha2021-12-27

Summary Micron Technology stock recently rallied 10.5% in a single day. The rally was probably due to a stellar earnings release the company put out the day before. Most likely, Micron will see ...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Expect More Of These Rallies\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-27 20:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476781-micron-technology-expect-more-of-these-rallies><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nMicron Technology stock recently rallied 10.5% in a single day.\nThe rally was probably due to a stellar earnings release the company put out the day before.\nMost likely, Micron will see ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476781-micron-technology-expect-more-of-these-rallies\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"MU","symbol_name":"美光科技","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476781-micron-technology-expect-more-of-these-rallies","article_id":"1168370421","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168370421","pubTimestamp":1640607614,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nMicron Technology stock recently rallied 10.5% in a single day.\nThe rally was probably due ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"translate_title":"美光科技：预计会有更多这样的反弹","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nMicron Technology stock recently rallied 10.5% in a single day.\nThe rally was probably due to a stellar earnings release the company put out the day before.\nMost likely, Micron will see continued upside, as demand for its products is only growing.\n\nGeorgijevic/E+ via Getty Images\nMicron Technology(MU) stock went on a pronounced rally Tuesday, rising 10.5% in a single trading day. It rallied another 5% on Thursday, leading to 15.66% gains for the week. The rally came immediately after a strong earnings release that beat on both revenue and profit. For the quarter, revenue came in at $7.69 billion (beat by $10 million) and EPS came in at $2.16 (beat by $0.02). The growth in EPS was impressive because it showed that the previous quarter’s stunning growth was no fluke.\nFor the fourth quarter, Micron grew revenue by 37% and earnings by 175% year-over-year. It was an incredible achievement, one that few saw the company replicating. Fortunately, it did, with very similar results for the first quarter of fiscal 2022. Micron’s first quarter revenue growth was nearly as strong as its fourth quarter growth, and its earnings growth was actually slightly better, coming in at a whopping 177%.\nClearly, Micron has put a couple of great quarters behind it. Both the fourth and first quarters saw triple-digit growth in earnings, and the outlook was strong as well. The company forecast 20% growth in DRAM demand and 30% growth in demand for NAND. It expected its shipment growth for each category to be in-line with industry growth. It follows from this that Micron expects revenue growth between 20% and 30% assuming no price increases.\nIt’s a pretty rosy picture. And some investors believe that this is only the beginning. Legendary value investors like Li Lu and Mohnish Pabrai are betting heavily on Micron, believing that the memory sector is undervalued. Indeed, it is, if Micron is any indication. The stock trades at just 12 times earnings even after Tuesday’s monster rally. By the standards of tech stocks, it’s super cheap. And it’s one of the few ways you can get exposure to the memory industry on its own, with no other tech stuff packaged in.Samsung(OTC:SSNLF) is the biggest memory player, but it’s not a pure play. SK Hynix (OTC:HXSCF) is a pure play and has multiples similar to Micron’s, with similar growth as well. That leaves us with basically two pure play memory stocks to choose from. And they’re both very cheap. So if you’re looking for dirt-cheap tech plays, memory is where you want to be.\nMicron is well positioned in the memory industry. It proved its mettle by withstanding the loss of Huawei’s business after the U.S. banned chip exports to China, coming back from the ordeal with a strong balance sheet. After seeing its revenue dip 8% in 2020,Micron is back to strong year-over-year growth, not only compared to 2020 but compared to 2019 as well. It looks like everything is full steam ahead for Micron. Accordingly I will develop a bullish thesis on the stock in this article, arguing that its unique mix of growth and value characteristics makes it a worthy buy.\nMemory Industry Factors\nBefore looking at MU’s own fundamentals we need to look at the industry the company operates in. Micron forecasts that its growth will follow industry trends, so we need to know what the memory industry looks like.\nThe DRAM industry is basically an oligopoly between Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix. According to Statista, Samsung leads with 42%, SK Hynix is in second with 29%, and Micron is in third with 23%. There are other players but their market share is too small to be worth mentioning, the largest of them having 3.3%. The picture is a little different for NAND flash storage, with more major players, but Micron has a healthy 10% share there, too.\nSo, Micron is a top player in the memory industry. It’s not #1, but it is one of the top two pure plays in the space. Its strong position in the industry isn’t disputed. The question is whether the industry’s own prospects are strong.\nMicron, unsurprisingly, thinks that they are. In addition to forecasting 20%-30% growth in its verticals, the company also expects long-term CAGR growth ranging from the mid-teens to 30%. That would be great news if it materialized. With that said, you’d expect a company to say that its industry is strong. So we might want to look at some third-party opinions here.\nThe market research firm Verified Market Research expects the DRAM industry to grow at 8.7%. This is a little over half Micron’s internal forecast for DRAM demand. At 8.7% CAGR growth Micron would be growing slower than it is now, although that isn’t bad growth for a stock with a P/E of 11. Many bank stocks are more expensive than that and 8.7% revenue growth is a banner year for a bank.\nAs for NAND, I was able to find forecasts anywhere from 11% CAGR (Mordor Intelligence) to 22% (Valuates Reports). Again these don’t match Micron’s rosy forecasts, but are pretty optimistic themselves. Barely anybody is expecting the memory industry to decline, and most organizations are forecasting double digit growth. This makes sense when you consider who these companies serve. In addition to producing sticks of RAM and SD cards/personal SSDs for consumers, they also produce:\n\nRAM for 5G smartphones.\nSSDs for data centers.\nComponents for computer manufacturers.\n\nThese are all strong growth sectors. Smartphone growth didslow down a bit from 2018 to 2020, but picked up again in 2021. Cloud computing is currently a huge growth driver for pretty much all of the companies in the space.Amazon(AMZN),Microsoft(MSFT) and Alphabet(GOOG) (GOOGL) are all seeing high double-digit growth in their cloud businesses. Companies like Meta Platforms(FB), which don’t operate cloud businesses, nevertheless rely heavily on data centers to run their own services. So there is massive and growing demand for DRAM and NAND from internet companies.\nWhat all this means is that powerful industry forces are driving the increase in demand for memory. It’s not just that the industry itself is growing, but the much larger industries it sells to are growing. This means there’s a basis for thinking that the memory industry’s strong growth will continue. As long as smartphones remain popular and data centers remain necessary, there’ll be a need for memory. And Micron is one of the three leading companies supplying it.\nFinancials and Valuation\nHaving looked at Micron’s industry position, we can now turn to its financials and valuation.\nMicron Technology is, broadly, a highly profitable, fast-growing business with an attractive valuation. It’s one of the few stocks I’ve come across that scores ‘A’ or higher on four of Seeking Alpha Quant’s factors (growth, profitability, momentum and valuation), and a quick glance at the company’s financials shows why that’s the case.\nFirst, let’s look at earnings for the most recent quarter. In the first quarter, Micron delivered:\n\n$7.68 billion in revenue, up 33% year over year (but down 7% sequentially).\n$2.6 billion in operating income, up 203% year-over-year.\nNet income: $2.3 billion, up 176% year-over-year.\nDiluted EPS: $2.16, up 176% year-over-year.\nCash from operations: $3.9 billion, up 100% year-over-year.\n\nThese were pretty solid results. Not only was the growth strong, the profitability was strong as well. $2.6 billion in earnings on $7.6 billion in revenue gives us a 33% net margin. Extremely high. The company had $45 billion in equity for the period. That produces a somewhat unimpressive return on equity of 5.77%, althoughSeeking Alpha Quantshows a healthy 17% ROE for the full trailing 12 month period. So we’ve got decent earnings and profitability in the most recent period.\nThe same holds true for the last five years as well. For the past five years, MU’s CAGR growth rates in select metrics have been:\n\n18% in revenue.\n90% in operating income.\n118% in ROE.\n\nUnfortunately we can’t do the five-year CAGR calculation for net income or EPS because those figures were negative in 2016. However, if we start from 2015 and do a six year CAGR calculation, we get 16% six-year CAGR growth in EPS. Not quite as strong as the most recent quarter, but still very strong.\nSo we’ve got very strong financials and growth from Micron. One strike the company has against it is earnings volatility. As you’ll note from above, earnings were negative in 2016. Also, they hit a peak in 2018 and then declined in 2019 and again in 2020–mostly due to the loss of Huawei. This is all reflected in the stock’s price history: it’s more volatile than average, with a 1.15 beta coefficient. Put simply, the stock isn’t for the faint of heart. Micron’s earnings have swung up and down dramatically throughout its history and that isn’t stopping any time soon. RAM prices arevery volatile, subject to massive booms and bust. This is part of RAM’s status as a commodity: companies buy it up in bulk from all suppliers and often stop buying when they have too much. This leads prices to go up and down as orders abruptly start and stop. Much like oil or coal, companies are sometimes just sitting on too much RAM to buy more.\nWith all that said, these factors are well priced into Micron’s stock. At today’s prices, Micron trades at 12 times adjusted earnings, 14.6 times GAAP earnings, 3.57 times sales, 2.3 times book value and 7.3 times operating cash flow. These are basically dirt cheap multiples for a high-growth tech stock. And while a company like Micron can’t count on steadily climbing earnings that never dip, it should keep delivering more value to shareholders as demand for phones, data centers and laptops grows.\nThe Bottom Line\nMicron Technology’s 15.6% one-week rally was no fluke. It was the expected result of a cheap stock well positioned to profit off of current tech trends, beating on earnings while having low multiples. As of December 2021, demand for DRAM and NAND flash is expected to keep growing. Whether Micron’s internal 20%-30% forecast will be hit remains to be seen, but even more modest forecasts call for growth in the 10%+ range. So, Micron’s business should continue to grow from here. Earnings growth will of course slow from the recent 175%, but it should remain strong for at least a few years.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":45,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1168370421"}