September is the toughest month for stocks, but this time could be different

CNBC2021-09-01

September is the worst month, but it may not matter. It’s an old trader saw: September is the worst month of the year. It’s true. Since 1945, September has been the worst month, on average, for the S&...

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精彩评论

IAS
2021-09-03
IAS
Very true. Agree
MieMoo
2021-09-02
MieMoo
Indeed new economy has taken over old economy in this digital age
- peng321:
  besides liquidity covid also contributed to accelerate index inching higher ... and higher
jktrade
2021-09-02
jktrade
Yes, looks very different
Blading23
2021-09-02
Blading23
Read
- Blading23:
  comment
jayfalcon
2021-09-02
jayfalcon
Times have been changing... speed of E-economy, tech advancements in trading tools with changes in mindset, preference, taste & style in the younger trading generations might have disrupted the conventional cyclical trends. But the one rule remains - what goes up must come down - at least for the majority of stocks - it's just a matter of time... Well, just monitor & wait for the right moments to harvest & reap... [财迷]
Dreamchaser9
2021-09-02
Dreamchaser9
Ok

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Since 1945, September has been the worst month, on average, for the S&...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/01/september-is-the-toughest-month-for-stocks-but-this-time-could-be-different.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September is the toughest month for stocks, but this time could be different</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember is the toughest month for stocks, but this time could be different\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-01 21:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/01/september-is-the-toughest-month-for-stocks-but-this-time-could-be-different.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>September is the worst month, but it may not matter.\nIt’s an old trader saw: September is the worst month of the year.\nIt’s true. Since 1945, September has been the worst month, on average, for the S&...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/01/september-is-the-toughest-month-for-stocks-but-this-time-could-be-different.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/01/september-is-the-toughest-month-for-stocks-but-this-time-could-be-different.html","article_id":"1167796919","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"cnbc_highlight","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/01/september-is-the-toughest-month-for-stocks-but-this-time-could-be-different.html","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.ArticleHeader-headline{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.ArticleHeader-time, .Author-authorNameAndSocial a{#sourceStyle#;}","selectors":".PageBuilder-pageWrapper","filters":".ArticleHeader-eyebrow, .RelatedTags-relatedTags","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167796919","pubTimestamp":1630502600,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"cnbc_highlight","name":"CNBC"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"September is the worst month, but it may not matter.\nIt’s an old trader saw: September is the worst ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"cnbc.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"九月是股市最艰难的一个月，但这次可能会有所不同","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"September is the worst month, but it may not matter.\nIt’s an old trader saw: September is the worst month of the year.\nIt’s true. Since 1945, September has been the worst month, on average, for the S&P 500:\nS&P 500: worst months\n(Avg. since 1945)\nSeptember down 0.56%\nFebruary down 0.15%\nAugust up 0.03%\nSource: CFRA\nHere’s the problem: It hasn’t worked very well recently. September has been up three of the last four years:\nS&P 500: September\n2020: down 3.9%\n2019: up 1.7%\n2018: up 0.4%\n2017: up 1.9%\nA lot of the old seasonal trading rules (sell in May and go away, the January effect, best six months trade, etc.) have not worked as well in the last few years.\nSome believe these old saws are being disrupted by the oceans of cash the Federal Reserve has been showering on the economy since the financial crisis in 2008.\n“There is so much liquidity out there,” Art Cashin from UBS told me.\nSeptember setup: About as good as it gets\nRegardless of September fears, the setup is about as good as it gets. The three issues of most concern to stock traders — earnings and the direction of earnings estimates, profit margins, and interest rates — are aligned favorably:\nWhy stocks are at new highs\nEarnings: record\nEarnings estimates: still rising\nMargins: record\nInterest rates: remain low\nStrategists have been particularly impressed with the steadily increasing earnings estimates.\n“It appears that we have underestimated the earnings power of US stocks yet again despite bumping up our 2021 EPS target back in May,” BMO’s Brian Belski wrote in a note to clients. “And with analysts continuing to raise annual EPS estimates we believe our current EPS target is again likely too low.”\nAnother factor in the markets rally has been persistent rotation into and out of key groups.\nFor much of the first half of the year, small-cap stocks outperformed big caps, and value (mostly industrials, materials, banks and energy) outperformed growth (mostly technology).\nThat has reversed in the third quarter, as big caps and growth have returned to dominance:\nQ3: Major indexes\nS&P 500: up 5%\nS&P Small Cap: up 2%\nGrowth: up 8%\nValue: up 2%\nWhat’s not to like?\nEven with the market at new highs, there are signs that the rally is being pushed ahead on fewer stocks. Traders always prefer “broad” rallies, so this is a sign of some concern.\nNYSE advance/decline line: topped in June. With the S&P 500 at new highs, this is a sign the rally is getting more selective.\nNew highs: peaked in March. “Fewer stocks are able to keep pace with the major indexes and this leaves the market in a fragile state, susceptible to increases in Supply,” Lowry Research’s Michael Kahn wrote in a recent note to clients. Lowry is the nation’s oldest technical analysis service.\nMomentum (S&P stocks above 200-day moving average): Steadily declining since it hit a top in February, at 91%. Now only 58% are above their 200-day moving average.\nWhat’s all this mean? The markets are remaining at new highs, but only because we are back to the situation where a small group of the largest companies are keeping the market afloat.\nThe S&P 500 is up 5% this quarter, but the five largest stocks in the S&P are up an average of 10.2%.\nFive largest S&P 500 companies\n(QTD)\nApple: up 12%\nMicrosoft: up 12%\nAlphabet: up 18%\nAmazon: flat\nFacebook: up 10%\nMeantime, many stocks are lagging. Only 62% of the S&P 500 is up this quarter.\nThe ‘endless bid’ in the markets\nFar from being happy, many traders are baffled by the relentless move up in stocks.\n“There’s just an endless bid to the markets,” one trader who asked to remain anonymous told me.\nThe problem: Even as they acknowledge the strong earnings backdrop, the combination of the Fed and the delta variant tells many the markets should be lower.\nJonathan Corpina of Meridian Equity Partners Traders said he understood the apprehension, but so far the markets are choosing to put a positive spin on the delta variant and the Fed.\n“The market is telling us that the Covid variant is not going to shut down the economy, and [Fed Chairman Jerome] Powell has now convinced everyone that there is very little chance of the Fed suddenly raising rates,” he said.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":815084727,"gmtCreate":1630630483469,"gmtModify":1631888360631,"author":{"id":"3576136694569207","authorId":"3576136694569207","name":"IAS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933fbcc1d9c75b4ff82486f8a48a3e7c","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Very true. Agree&nbsp;","listText":"Very true. Agree&nbsp;","text":"Very true. Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815084727","repostId":1167796919,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":812308005,"gmtCreate":1630550042407,"gmtModify":1631890042856,"author":{"id":"4088679089293230","authorId":"4088679089293230","name":"MieMoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Indeed new economy has taken over old economy in this digital age","listText":"Indeed new economy has taken over old economy in this digital age","text":"Indeed new economy has taken over old economy in this digital age","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812308005","repostId":1167796919,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5727512,"gmtCreate":1630560240777,"gmtModify":1631890042860,"authorId":4087387556186030,"author":{"id":4087387556186030,"authorId":4087387556186030,"name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":812308005,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"besides liquidity covid also contributed to accelerate index inching higher ... and higher","text":"besides liquidity covid also contributed to accelerate index inching higher ... and higher","html":"besides liquidity covid also contributed to accelerate index inching higher ... and higher"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":812061385,"gmtCreate":1630541821747,"gmtModify":1631892703287,"author":{"id":"4087905137947130","authorId":"4087905137947130","name":"jktrade","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Yes, looks very different","listText":"Yes, looks very different","text":"Yes, looks very different","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812061385","repostId":1167796919,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":812010101,"gmtCreate":1630540983703,"gmtModify":1631889751471,"author":{"id":"3565700003213382","authorId":"3565700003213382","name":"Blading23","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812010101","repostId":1167796919,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5723567,"gmtCreate":1630540991667,"gmtModify":1631889751499,"authorId":3565700003213382,"author":{"id":3565700003213382,"authorId":3565700003213382,"name":"Blading23","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":812010101,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"comment","text":"comment","html":"comment"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":812033933,"gmtCreate":1630540566922,"gmtModify":1631883826988,"author":{"id":"4090418835913750","authorId":"4090418835913750","name":"jayfalcon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/505029b8d840d52745c57c2cbf910d5c","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Times have been changing... speed of E-economy, tech advancements in trading tools with changes in&nbsp;mindset,&nbsp;preference, taste &amp; style in the younger trading generations might have disrupted the conventional cyclical trends. But the one rule remains - what goes up must come down - at least for the majority of stocks - it's just a matter of time...&nbsp;Well, just monitor &amp; wait for the right moments to harvest &amp; reap...&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"Times have been changing... speed of E-economy, tech advancements in trading tools with changes in&nbsp;mindset,&nbsp;preference, taste &amp; style in the younger trading generations might have disrupted the conventional cyclical trends. But the one rule remains - what goes up must come down - at least for the majority of stocks - it's just a matter of time...&nbsp;Well, just monitor &amp; wait for the right moments to harvest &amp; reap...&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"Times have been changing... speed of E-economy, tech advancements in trading tools with changes in mindset, preference, taste & style in the younger trading generations might have disrupted the conventional cyclical trends. But the one rule remains - what goes up must come down - at least for the majority of stocks - it's just a matter of time... Well, just monitor & wait for the right moments to harvest & reap... [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812033933","repostId":1167796919,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":812097125,"gmtCreate":1630540445467,"gmtModify":1632474063560,"author":{"id":"3581782846197879","authorId":"3581782846197879","name":"Dreamchaser9","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f8f000953179179078bdd5e6f748b6","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812097125","repostId":1167796919,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":240,"commentSize":38,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.26.2","shortVersion":"4.26.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1167796919"}