顶级经济学家为金价“站台”：下一站是3000美元！

金十数据04-08

在这位经济学家列出的两种情形中，金价都有诱人的上涨空间。在美债收益率走高的压力下，金价上周收盘仍达到了每盎司2328.7美元的历史最高水平，且周一持续上扬，将历史高位拉升至2353.82美元/盎司。一位经济学家表示，这一强劲的上涨势头可能在下一次商业周期转变之前将金价推高至3000美元，较当前水平上涨30%。这是著名经济学家、罗森伯格研究公司总裁戴维·罗森伯格（David Rosenberg）的...

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精彩评论

XYZ880
04-09
XYZ880
专家们这样说的时候，就开始跌了，赶紧跑吧
我迟早都能吃上烧鹅
04-08
我迟早都能吃上烧鹅
搞笑，降息美元购买力下降，不等于美元贬值，这一**涨已经兑现了美元贬值周期，怎么可能无限贬值，按这专家说的再涨百分之15—30美元要变津巴布韦币了，这显然不利于金融稳定。找接盘侠来着
蓝白红黑的间条衫
04-08
蓝白红黑的间条衫
这是大锅闹餐粉们借着黄金还在暗黑别人啊…… 👽👽👽
MTM20240312
04-08
MTM20240312
其实也可以理解毕竟比特币都那么疯长
anuo
04-08
anuo
这

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Rosenberg）的观点。他在最近的一份报告中表示，最近的金价涨势“尤其令人印象深刻”，因为它不仅超过了比特币和所有主要货币，还克服了通常会压低其价值的典型宏观逆风。他的团队在报告中写道：“金价上涨正值美元走强、通胀预期下降之际。在此期间，美联储已让市场预期转向相信‘利率将维持更长时间的高位’。所有这些事态发展通常会损害金价，但无论如何，金价仍在上涨。”在对黄金的未来大肆炒作之前，有必要回顾一下近期金价飙升背后的原因。需求强劲罗森伯格和他的团队表示，近期金价走高的主要推动力并非来自供给侧（近年来供给侧一直保持稳定），而是来自需求侧，这要归功于各国央行重新将黄金作为储备资产。随着日本、俄罗斯、土耳其和波兰等国担心过度依赖美元，许多国家已将视为抵御特殊经济风险时的首选。罗森伯格指出：“在本世纪初减持黄金之后，各国央行再次增持黄金，而且力度很大。”他还发现，黄金在印度和中国等新兴市场更具吸引力，而西方投资者的兴趣则相对较弱，因为高利率和飙升的股价削弱了收益较低的黄金的吸引力。此外，该贵金属的工业用量（特别是高度活跃的电子行业用量）的上升也是金价的驱动因素之一。报告称：“随着生产商不分昼夜地工作以满足人工智能相关模型对资产的无限需求，电路制造业蓬勃发展，这无疑将推动实物黄金需求，而且这种需求不会很快消失。”对不确定性的担忧罗森伯格还将金价近期的上涨归因于全球地缘政治风险和难以预测的宏观经济前景。他说：“无可争议的是，国际关系朝着军事化、对抗化、两极化的方向发展，金价的风险对冲功能也因此变得更加重要。”另外，罗森伯格指出，美国债务占GDP比率已经达到120%，这正在消磨美元价值。此外，在选举结果不确定性和财政危机迫在眉睫的情况下，投资者也正在增加黄金持有量。下一站：3000美元由于黄金的强劲势头持续，罗森伯格预计，随着各国央行开始降息，金价还将上涨15%，甚至可能上涨30%。这位经济学家列出了两种情形，均得出金价还将进一步上涨的结论：包括经济“软着陆”和衰退。在“软着陆”情景下，假设全球实际利率回到2000年之前的平均水平（高于全球金融危机后的停滞时期），这将导致美元下跌约12%，并将金价推高约10%。但如果经济陷入衰退，全球实际利率回归2014年至2024年的平均水平，股市趋于稳定，美元贬值约8%，那么金价的上涨空间将达到15%以上，达到2500美元左右。罗森伯格表示，“将这些观察结果与我们的建模结果结合起来，我们发现金价的下行风险有限，但上涨空间很大。金价达到每盎司3000美元的可能性远大于回落至1500美元的可能性。”他还补充称，地缘政治紧张局势加剧将进一步推高金价。罗森伯格在报告中总结道：“对投资者来说，要点很简单：确保你的投资组合中有黄金，并增持黄金。下行风险将得到很好的控制（短期内出现回调并非不可能，应该加以关注），但上行空间是诱人的。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":293274760192200,"gmtCreate":1712619814415,"gmtModify":1712619817124,"author":{"id":"3533812798684515","authorId":"3533812798684515","name":"XYZ880","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7871ee78db6998dd5d514c18d9fe678b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3533812798684515","authorIdStr":"3533812798684515"},"htmlText":"专家们这样说的时候，就开始跌了，赶紧跑吧","listText":"专家们这样说的时候，就开始跌了，赶紧跑吧","text":"专家们这样说的时候，就开始跌了，赶紧跑吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293274760192200","repostId":1167664338,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":293133087813800,"gmtCreate":1712585315590,"gmtModify":1712587710535,"author":{"id":"4107808642014150","authorId":"4107808642014150","name":"我迟早都能吃上烧鹅","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4107808642014150","authorIdStr":"4107808642014150"},"htmlText":"搞笑，降息美元购买力下降，不等于美元贬值，这一**涨已经兑现了美元贬值周期，怎么可能无限贬值，按这专家说的再涨百分之15—30美元要变津巴布韦币了，这显然不利于金融稳定。找接盘侠来着","listText":"搞笑，降息美元购买力下降，不等于美元贬值，这一**涨已经兑现了美元贬值周期，怎么可能无限贬值，按这专家说的再涨百分之15—30美元要变津巴布韦币了，这显然不利于金融稳定。找接盘侠来着","text":"搞笑，降息美元购买力下降，不等于美元贬值，这一**涨已经兑现了美元贬值周期，怎么可能无限贬值，按这专家说的再涨百分之15—30美元要变津巴布韦币了，这显然不利于金融稳定。找接盘侠来着","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293133087813800","repostId":1167664338,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":293131259777224,"gmtCreate":1712584780133,"gmtModify":1712584782172,"author":{"id":"3546057439648684","authorId":"3546057439648684","name":"蓝白红黑的间条衫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ded5db61c69b7abc937bc62d16afdd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3546057439648684","authorIdStr":"3546057439648684"},"htmlText":"这是大锅闹餐粉们借着黄金还在暗黑别人啊…… 👽👽👽","listText":"这是大锅闹餐粉们借着黄金还在暗黑别人啊…… 👽👽👽","text":"这是大锅闹餐粉们借着黄金还在暗黑别人啊…… 👽👽👽","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293131259777224","repostId":1167664338,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":293047010443280,"gmtCreate":1712564273186,"gmtModify":1712564412520,"author":{"id":"4173359273343622","authorId":"4173359273343622","name":"MTM20240312","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42ec1e226a32d919883f0a95641eb7c8","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4173359273343622","authorIdStr":"4173359273343622"},"htmlText":"其实也可以理解 毕竟比特币都那么疯长","listText":"其实也可以理解 毕竟比特币都那么疯长","text":"其实也可以理解 毕竟比特币都那么疯长","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293047010443280","repostId":1167664338,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":293042906108104,"gmtCreate":1712563209413,"gmtModify":1712563211390,"author":{"id":"3494340101872567","authorId":"3494340101872567","name":"anuo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3494340101872567","authorIdStr":"3494340101872567"},"htmlText":"这","listText":"这","text":"这","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293042906108104","repostId":1167664338,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":14,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":5,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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