How Tesla Could Be Bigger Than Ford and GM—Combined—in Just 5 Years

Barrons2022-02-06

Tesla could be bigger than both General Motors and Ford Motor combined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is thinking.It’s a provocative ...

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精彩评论

wisley
2022-02-06
wisley
Drop
boonhup
2022-02-06
boonhup
Please like and comments thanks 😊
- AnthonyC:
  Done
- boonhup:
  thx

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It really shouldn’t be. The market has already declared a victory in the electric vehicle transition. Still, the math behind that kind of market share shift and growth is something to behold.“Most auto investors we speak with still struggle with the idea that Tesla could ever be bigger than either GM or Ford,” wrote Jonas in a report published Thursday.But Jonas doesn’t find the idea hard to grasp, at all. In fact, he believes Tesla sales will be larger that GM plus Ford by 2027.There is one catch with his thought experiment. Tesla will be bigger than both on a “run-rate” basis — essentially annualizing whatever data is most recent. Tesla, for instance, sold roughly 309,000 cars in the fourth quarter of 2021. Using Jonas’ math, the EV pioneer is producing cars at a run-rate of roughly 1.24 million units.Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales came in at roughly $25 billion, putting its run-rate sales at $100 billion or so. 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Its sales might still trail GM and Ford, the Tesla dwarfs every other auto maker on one key metric: market capitalization.Tesla’s market cap is roughly $900 billion, which is roughly six times the combined market value of GM and Ford.With a disparity like that, Tesla will need to keep growing in 2027 and beyond. Jonas definitely sees that happening. He has Tesla “share of wallet,” which is essentially unit share times average pricing, to 23% of the U.S. market by the end of the decade.On Friday, Tesla stock rose 3.6% closing at $923.32. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%.Right now, Wall Street is seriously wondering what Jonas could be thinking. If he is right, his clients won’t only be happy. 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