逼空大战引发余震，华尔街警告本周市场变数

Wind2021-02-01

香港万得通讯社报道，在美股“逼空”行情过后，本周交易员又迎来财报季的重要节点：亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet将公布业绩，而1月非农就业数据也将于周五揭晓，或成为短期逼空大战以外的最大“变数”。市场本周迎接逼空大战以外的最大“变数” 在周二市场收盘后，谷歌母公司Alphabet和亚马逊都将发布报告。分析师预期Alphabet四季度收入增长较三季度加快，原因是广告客户运营条件的改善有助于年底业绩...

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精彩评论

Raychan
2021-02-02
Raychan
[龇牙] [龇牙]
Raychan
2021-02-02
Raychan
[捂脸] [捂脸]
花喵喵
2021-02-02
花喵喵
[吃瓜]
赢赢啊
2021-02-02
赢赢啊
冲啊冲啊冲啊冲啊
Liberty_8153
2021-02-01
Liberty_8153
市场运行脱离基本面成为无脑对赌的场所才是最大的悲剧，人们都已忘掉了市场存在的意义
让子弹飞一会er
2021-02-01
让子弹飞一会er
垮也是他们先垮吧？他们是拿股票套现补窟窿，散户是股票跌了而已，散户只需每人拿一小部分买那两只股，打赢这场仗，最差总资产也是收支平衡的，不过没有做空机构了，以后总归是好的

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href=https://snap.windin.com/ns/findsnap.php?code=CE988E7E6432&sourcename=snap.windin.com&ad=0&sitetype=1&sourcetype=1&id=523061276&terminaltype=wft.m&device=ios&version=21.1.1&show=wft&share=wechat><strong>Wind</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>香港万得通讯社报道，在美股“逼空”行情过后，本周交易员又迎来财报季的重要节点：亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet将公布业绩，而1月非农就业数据也将于周五揭晓，或成为短期逼空大战以外的最大“变数”。\n市场本周迎接逼空大战以外的最大“变数”\n在周二市场收盘后，谷歌母公司Alphabet和亚马逊都将发布报告。分析师预期Alphabet四季度收入增长较三季度加快，原因是广告客户运营条件的改善有助于年底业绩...</p>\n\n<a 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Caused by Air Force War, Wall Street Warns of Market Variables This Week","themeId":"b97c5edb65d1495c9c2569fbe5a1492d","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180de1acc84cc492c3139df4725015f2","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道，在美股“逼空”行情过后，本周交易员又迎来财报季的重要节点：亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet将公布业绩，而1月非农就业数据也将于周五揭晓，或成为短期逼空大战以外的最大“变数”。\n市场本周迎接逼空大战以外的最大“变数”\n在周二市场收盘后，谷歌母公司Alphabet和亚马逊都将发布报告。分析师预期Alphabet四季度收入增长较三季度加快，原因是广告客户运营条件的改善有助于年底业绩的增长。华尔街预期，不计流量收购成本的销售额增长18%，至441.6亿美元，而第三季度的增长为15%。\n摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析师道格·安穆斯（Doug Anmuth）在上周的一份报告中写道：“我们对搜索引擎营销商（SEM）的检查显示，搜索支出从3季度加速至4季度。”他补充说：“某些垂直行业受到疫情的严重影响，其中包括我们认为在疫情之前占收入10-15%的旅行，由于复苏和相关停工，整个4季度仍可能受到挑战，” “我们相信，随着消费者继续接种疫苗，这些垂直领域的复苏将持续，从而推动广告收入的进一步增长。”\n同时，受疫情期间在线购物的需求推动，电子商务巨头亚马逊很可能会报告另一个惊人的季度。该公司可能将发布其第一个季度收入超过1000亿美元的财报，这将使2020年全年收入达到惊人的3790亿美元。\n瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）分析师斯蒂芬·朱（Stephen Ju）在上周的一份报告中写道：“全球消费者越来越依赖线上购物，这对亚马逊具有以下近乎长期的潜在影响：1、2021年及以后的GMV （总商品价值）估计值有上升空间； 2、更高的购买频率增强了亚马逊的客户获取/留存成本/品牌价值。”\n但是，尽管收入在第四季度和假日购物旺季销售可能再次飙升，但亚马逊上一季度也增加了支出，以维持业务增长并在疫情期间提高员工的安全性。亚马逊表示，考虑到与疫情相关的成本约为40亿美元，其第四季度的营业收入将在10亿美元至45亿美元之间。相比之下，2019年第四季度的营业收入为39亿美元。\n周五，美国劳工部1月份的就业报告很可能表明，在12月就业人数下降之后，经济将在2021年初恢复增加的就业人数。Capital Economics高级美国经济学家安德鲁·亨特（Andrew Hunter）在周四的报告中称：“我们估计1月份非农就业人数基本没有变化，但近期的财政支持和新病毒病例的回落表明劳动力市场将很快恢复。”\n逼空大战或引发“余震”，华尔街警告抛售风险\n亚马逊和Alphabet的季报收益，1月份就业报告以及华盛顿对刺激政策的讨论可能对未来一周的市场都很重要，但没有什么比散户投资者推动的“轧空行情”更引起市场关注。\n高盛警告称，随着散户投资者以创纪录的数量进入市场，交易热潮还将持续，而逼空行情甚至可能给市场带来大幅回调。该投资银行在周五晚间的一份报告中写道：“根据高盛总理服务部的数据，本周是自2009年2月以来最大的活跃对冲基金减仓。基金为弥补空头亏损卖出了多头头寸，涵盖了各个领域。”\n“尽管进行了积极的去杠杆化，对冲基金的净值和按市值计的总风险敞口仍然接近有记录以来的最高水平，这表明存在由头寸驱动的抛售的持续风险。”高盛分析师写道：“上周的情况表明，市场一小部分不可持续的过度投机，有可能引发一系列多米诺骨牌效应，并造成更广泛的动荡。”\n\n此外，尽管近期美股市场的轧空行为主要集中在小市值个股上，但高盛分析师表示，大量的轧空将导致投资者减少其他个股的多头头寸，以弥补空头上的亏损，而这将会使市场波动蔓延至至市值较大的个股。近年来美股低成交量和高集中度的交易特征越来越明显，这增加了一只基金的清盘可能在市场上滚雪球的风险。\n另一方面，高盛承认“散户交易的繁荣可以继续”，因为“大量的美国家庭现金应继续推动交易的繁荣”。当前5万亿美元规模的货币基金市场中，超过50%是由家庭单位持有，较疫情前增长了1万亿美元。如果短期轧空行情继续维持，可能对资本市场的未来产生深远影响。\n但除了高盛的警告声以外，多家投行并不认为近期市场的轧空行情会将风险扩散到整个市场。根据巴克莱银行的统计，卖空交易总额为8000亿美元，约占美国股票总市值的2%，这表明卖空者还没有扩大规模。大量做空的公司(利息占其流通股的20%以上)有400亿美元的股票被做空，占全部看跌押注的5%。\n巴克莱银行的Deshpande在上周五的一份报告中提到GameStop的股票行情时写道:“尽管卖空始于GME，但似乎正在向更广泛的股票范围蔓延。”“尽管我们预计会出现更多的去杠杆化，但最终问题的规模似乎相当有限。”\n此外，虽然标准普尔500指数上周下跌了3%以上，但交易员们认为大盘走势井然有序。对于包括杜布拉科夫•拉科斯布哈斯在内的摩根大通策略师来说，这次下跌可能只是“短暂的技术性下跌”。分析师在周五的报告中写道，随着企业收益改善和美国消费者走强，这次回落是增加股市的又一个机会，尤其是那些与经济复苏相关的股票。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":315148638,"gmtCreate":1612225828124,"gmtModify":1703758990001,"author":{"id":"3564283828510919","authorId":"3564283828510919","name":"Raychan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28122884c4dec771d27426dd0ee7247e","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564283828510919","authorIdStr":"3564283828510919"},"htmlText":"[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"[龇牙] 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