Paysafe: Hell, Fury, And Capital Destruction

Seeking Alpha2022-01-04

SummaryPaysafe's long-term bull case as a pick-and-shovel play on the liberalization of iGaming is being questioned.The company recently cut guidance on the back of weak fiscal 2021 third-quarter ...

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黑色幽默nio
2022-01-04
黑色幽默nio
未来可期
- 尾巴骨:
  是吗为啥呀

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The company held a strategic business position in the fast-expanding North American iGaming market. This was through its suite of digital wallet, eCash and integrated processing solutions that are the preferred choice for a number of leading iGaming companies. The bull case was clear; the liberalisation of online gambling laws in the US would usher in an ever-growing total addressable market. This would create a base for long-term revenue ramp and continued positive EBITDA generation. Hence, Paysafe went public to raise funds to fully ride this iGaming wave.This bull case met the reality of a cold and uncaring public market that punished stocks in somewhat speculative and fringe industries. 2021 was a year that saw these suffer a historical valuation compression and meant Paysafe's fate was sealed on the back of fiscal 2021 third quarter results that fell far short of guidance and consensus estimates. In other words, the market's deep distrust of Paysafe's previously provided guidance was proved right and what was left of positive sentiment towards the company's bull case was dissipated.Data by YChartsBulls would be right to ask about what comes next after an 80% fall from 52-week highs. With common shares that have mimicked cotton candy in the rain some understandably exchanged their losses for a reduction in their taxable capital gains. This end-of-year tax-loss harvesting ironically likely exacerbated the pace of decline that we saw towards the end of the year across similar companies in the space.A Pick-And-Shovel Play On The Liberalization Of iGaming?Paysafe's fiscal 2021 third quarter results saw revenue come in at $353.6 million, a year-over-year decline of 0.5% and a $17.04 million miss on consensus estimates. The poor growth during the quarter saw the company cut revenue guidance for fiscal 2021 revenue to be no less than $1.47 billion. This is around a 4% decline from the previous guidance of revenue of no less than $1.53 billion with consensus estimates at $1.54 billion. Management blamed significant market and performance challenges within the Digital Wallet segment which saw revenue decline by around 15% to $83.6 million from $98.5 million.Gross profit guidance for the year was also cut to between $870 million and $880 million from the previous range of $930 million to $970 million. Adjusted EBITDA is now not meant to be lower than $425 million from the previous floor of $480 million. Hence, with revenue now expected to be around $1.47 billion for fiscal 2021, the company's market cap to sales multiple stands at 1.96x. But this is somewhat misleading asPaysafealso holds long-term debt of $2.19 billion, only partially offset by cash and equivalents of $262 million. This places its enterprise value at almost double its market cap. The current multiple might find it hard to expand until Paysafe proves it is able to return to growth and start generating substantially more free cash flow to pay down debt. Indeed, the company continues to make operational developments, recently partnering with Huawei to offer Paysafecard as an alternative payments option in the App Gallery in a number of European countries. The company's Skrill and Neteller products were also selected by Fandom Sports for its peer-to-peer sports wagering platform.The Future For The Embattled Longs As We Enter 2022You would seemingly not be remiss to think that Paysafe's short time in the public markets was on the precipice of ending. The company has suffered a brutal and almost unending collapse that would not look out of place for a company facing existential financial conditions. A number of factors, including end-of-year tax-loss selling and the emergence of the new COVID-19 variant, exacerbated a market orthodoxy of disdain and disgust towards companies like Paysafe.The company once held in extremely high regard has fallen from grace and enters a new year with a Sisyphean task of repairing a broken reputation and reinstalling trust in its long-term bull case. The liberalization of iGaming continues to be a material driver of growth opportunities ahead, and the company is well placed with its suite of products to take advantage of this. Bulls might well be right to state that the current valuation is far too low and an overreaction to a guidance cut that came about as a result of fixable factors. Hence, a re-rating could be due in 2022. Overall, Paysafe is a somewhat decent quality company currently treading water against a macro backdrop that should be more favourable to currently non-existent growth. Correcting this should be the priority for management in 2022 but I continue to avoid the shares.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":695960379,"gmtCreate":1641301210852,"gmtModify":1641301210852,"author":{"id":"3557575629963896","authorId":"3557575629963896","name":"黑色幽默nio","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e0a1166faa0ed5410c5d3b5c93de803","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3557575629963896","idStr":"3557575629963896"},"htmlText":"未来可期","listText":"未来可期","text":"未来可期","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695960379","repostId":1166481297,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7154157,"gmtCreate":1641303194430,"gmtModify":1641303194430,"authorId":3568343633990285,"author":{"id":3568343633990285,"idStr":"3568343633990285","authorId":3568343633990285,"name":"尾巴骨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/104955df12f454822718fb1cce50af4b","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":695960379,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"是吗 为啥呀","text":"是吗 为啥呀","html":"是吗 为啥呀"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1166481297"}