2021年，谁在港股打了胜仗？

远川投资评论2021-12-15

今年的港股，属于谁重仓谁尴尬。年初，恒生指数强势反弹，一举冲上31000点，又是中概股回归、港股版纳斯达克暖风频吹，再加上当时A股正值换挡期，核心资产的估值坐上了火箭，短期性价比极不诱人，资金普遍迷茫，一时间“跨过香江去，夺取定价权”的呼喊铺天盖地，很多内地资金也纷纷南下淘金，去港股寻找“估值洼地”。 Wind数据显示，今年1月南向资金净买入2600亿元，而2020年同期净流入金额仅248亿元，...

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精彩评论

唯物主义
2021-12-25
唯物主义
选对了赛道天天牛市选错了赛道天天熊市
- TerrenceT:
  对
- koolgal:
  Well said. Thanks for sharing
- 唯物主义:
  谢谢
- lucky小太阳:
  喜欢看你的视频
嘞撸虎7
2021-12-15
嘞撸虎7
阅
jackiee
2021-12-15
jackiee
新能源的搭了碳中和的顺风车
李云扬
2021-12-15
李云扬
就一个人，地球人都知道
plaispool
2021-12-15
plaispool
几家欢乐几家愁
Alexkoay
2021-12-15
Alexkoay
[微笑]
- Alexkoay:
  [微笑]

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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s22p5WkCY3kjUAOpuQPyPg><strong>远川投资评论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年的港股，属于谁重仓谁尴尬。\n年初，恒生指数强势反弹，一举冲上31000点，又是中概股回归、港股版纳斯达克暖风频吹，再加上当时A股正值换挡期，核心资产的估值坐上了火箭，短期性价比极不诱人，资金普遍迷茫，一时间“跨过香江去，夺取定价权”的呼喊铺天盖地，很多内地资金也纷纷南下淘金，去港股寻找“估值洼地”。\nWind数据显示，今年1月南向资金净买入2600亿元，而2020年同期净流入金额仅248亿元，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s22p5WkCY3kjUAOpuQPyPg\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"HSCCI","symbol_name":"红筹指数","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s22p5WkCY3kjUAOpuQPyPg","article_id":"1166277337","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166277337","pubTimestamp":1639533575,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1583835599575","name":"远川投资评论"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"今年的港股，属于谁重仓谁尴尬。\n年初，恒生指数强势反弹，一举冲上31000点，又是中概股回归、港股版纳斯达克暖风频吹，再加上当时A股正值换挡期，核心资产的估值坐上了火箭，短期性价比极不诱人，资金普遍迷","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"translate_title":"In 2021, who won the battle in Hong Kong stocks?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe245d7c5656534cc023e3791c860c06","symbols_score_info":{"HSCCI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9},"content_text":"今年的港股，属于谁重仓谁尴尬。\n年初，恒生指数强势反弹，一举冲上31000点，又是中概股回归、港股版纳斯达克暖风频吹，再加上当时A股正值换挡期，核心资产的估值坐上了火箭，短期性价比极不诱人，资金普遍迷茫，一时间“跨过香江去，夺取定价权”的呼喊铺天盖地，很多内地资金也纷纷南下淘金，去港股寻找“估值洼地”。\nWind数据显示，今年1月南向资金净买入2600亿元，而2020年同期净流入金额仅248亿元，同比增长约950%；2月份，南向资金流入港股的速度有所减缓，净流入625亿元，但这已经是连续第24个月净流入。\n谁知子弹都打出去了，恒生指数旋即拐头向下，跌跌不休，今年以来跌幅近12%，港股纳斯达克们更是腰斩的腰斩，团灭的团灭，定价权还没看到，净值就一个个地被砸出了最大回撤，连中概互联都被群嘲成了“中丐互怜”。\n问题是，南下的基金经理里，究竟有没有柳暗花明者？又有哪些基金，在今年一片哀鸿的港股里打出了胜仗呢？\n01、哪些基金能南下？\n在可投港股的公募基金中，不同类型的产品由于特征不同，介入的深度也不一样。\n我们之前做过梳理，可投港股的公募基金大致可以分为四类：被动指数型基金、QDII（主动型+被动型）、沪港深基金，以及A+H跨市场投资的主动权益基金（非沪港深基金）。它们之间最大的区别在于投资范围和仓位上限。\n\n从各基金的特点对比可以发现，被动指数基金、QDII和沪港深基金可以更多的配置港股，而一些横跨A、H两个市场的主动权益基金配置比例相对较少，甚至有些不买港股。所以，市场上纯投港股的基金数量并不多，绝大多数基金既投A股又投港股，而且A股投资比例更高。\nWind数据显示，截至三季度末，市场上一共有2013只基金持有港股，合计持有港股市值为7698.35亿元，但大多数基金配置比例较低，港股投资比例超过50%的基金只有215只，三成仓位买港股的基金也只有375只，占总数的比重不到20%。\n而比较常见的沪港深基金中，港股配置比例超80%的有22只，其中汇添富沪港深优势精选持有港股比例最高，恒生前海港股通精选、汇添富沪港深大盘价值、汇添富港股通精选、天弘港股通精选等7只基金港股投资比例也超过90%。\n\n而在可投港股的主动权益基金（非沪港深基金）中，周海栋的华商甄选回报港股配置比例最高，逼近可投港股仓位上限。而从持仓来看，该基金主要配置方向偏周期行业，比如石油化工、航空、煤炭、有色等，且前六大重仓股均为港股。\n另外，伍璇、柳黎合管的鹏华启航，丘栋荣管理的中庚价值品质，周应波、应超合管的中欧互联网先锋，赵枫管理的睿远均衡价值等18只非沪港深基金也重配了港股。\n\n理论上来看，今年港股哀鸿遍野，高仓位南下的基金大概率业绩会更差。\n换句话说，QDII基金、高仓位沪港深基金今年的收益，应该比港股仓位偏低的主动权益类基金差。但事实并非如此，部分重仓港股的主动型基金，今年依然获得了正收益。\n02、港股投资优等生\n2021年仅剩十几个交易日，不出意外的话，崔宸龙管理的前海开源公用事业股票将问鼎年度冠军。在众多明星基金经理遭遇毒打的年份，做投资不到一年半的崔宸龙却全程领跑，风头无二。而他的制胜法宝是押注新能源，豪赌锂电和光伏，尤其三季度加仓港股能源股的操作，堪称神来之笔。\n复盘持仓变化可以发现，该基金一季度重仓股全为A股，一手抓锂电，一手抓光伏，重仓持有宁德时代、亿纬锂能、天合光能、晶澳科技等新能源股票。二季度他开始切换“战场”，港股比亚迪股份成为第一重仓股，也是当时持仓中唯一一只港股；三季度继续加码港股，前十重仓中港股占了6席，既有传统的电力股，又有核电、风电等新能源公司。\n而从四季度来看，他三季度买入的港股整体表现不错，一些个股创出了历史新高，一些股票正逼近新高，但也有一些个股出现下跌。但仅从重仓股的表现来看，三季度他对港股的布局大概率为组合贡献了正收益。\n前海开源公用事业主要聚集A/H股中公用事业行业相关股票的机会，早期恪守业绩基准，买的都是公用事业相关股票，一度业绩平平，规模凄惨，最惨时规模仅剩1300万元，离清盘只有一线之隔。2020年7月崔宸龙接手之后，该基金的持仓风格突变，从传统的能源股切换至新能源，很快起死回生。\n\n一年多的时间，崔宸龙的任职回报近2.5倍，规模则翻了几百倍，三季度末即达到166亿元。不过，在这看似多赢局面的背后，基金风格漂移也是需要正视的问题（除非哪天新能源也成为了公用事业）。他未来业绩还能否持续？相信在很多投资者心中是一个大大的问号。\n尽管崔宸龙配置的港股比例不高（36%），但押注成功之后名利双收，算是今年港股投资上较为成功的一位基金经理。但今年在港股打了胜仗的基金经理远不止崔宸龙，中欧基金罗佳明、华安基金翁启森和富国基金汪孟海等基金经理，旗下都有产品今年在港股获得了超额收益。\n\n罗佳明、沈悦合管的中欧丰泓沪港深，今年以来获得近13%的收益（截至12月10日），而同期恒生指数下跌近12%。这只基金配置了73%的港股，并不算低，但收益很亮眼，主要有两个原因：\n一是，配置了较少的港股互联网股票。今年港股并不是普跌行情，互联网企业是重灾区，而这只基金对互联网公司的配置较少，仅重仓持有美团和腾讯，并在不断加仓摊薄成本。二是，配置了较多的港股消费股和部分A股，比如港股持有中升控股、中海物业、美东汽车、华润啤酒等股票，三季度加仓伯仁医疗、立讯精密等A股标的，相对比较抗跌。\n从个人履历来看，罗佳明有着10余年的港股投研经验，在会计事务所、财务咨询公司、国际资管公司等多个平台有过历练，基本功扎实，港股投资经验丰富，在中欧中生代基金经理中占有一席之地。他把自己的方法论总结为“集邮式”投资，立足于精选高质量公司并长期持有，类似于股票收藏家，像集邮那样收集好公司。\n\n富国“港股一哥”汪孟海市场名气很大，但仍然免不了业绩“滑铁卢”，旗下基金业绩分化较为明显。他和王菀宜合管的QDII基金富国红利精选今年业绩亮眼，但是他的代表产品富国沪港深价值混合今年却亏逾6%。\n对比可以发现，上述两只基金重仓股无一重合，结合汪孟海另一只单独管理的基金持仓来看，富国红利精选可能主要由王菀宜管理。而富国红利精选业绩突出，一方面是因为港股投资比例不高，仅56%；另一方面则是因为重仓股行业配置较为均衡，既有消费、医药股，又有光伏、新能源、地产服务等行业龙头股，且持仓集中度不高。\n\n而汪孟海单独管理的基金整体表现不佳，一方面是配置的腾讯、美团等互联网龙头今年水逆，另一方面则是继续持有A股核心资产，比如茅台、五粮液、中国中免等公司，今年也没有给基金贡献太多收益。但整体上看，与恒生指数相比，汪孟海旗下产品均跑赢了指数。\n作为港股投资老将，汪孟海身上有几个很明显的标签：一是行业均衡，个股分散，回撤控制能力比较强；二是青睐行业龙头股，重仓股几乎都是众所周知的好公司，看重公司的基本面。\n投资老将的优势在于不会犯大错，但有时也是劣势所在，原则性太强，显得灵活性不足，需要投资者更长时间去坚守。不过，面对做空机制更完善、没有涨跌幅限制且内地资金相对陌生的港股市场，基金经理的投资经验和投资能力一样重要，见惯了港股的暴涨暴跌，投资决策上更保守也未必是坏事。\n两位及以上的基金经理管理同一产品，在业内并不少见，但能够实现“1+1＞2”效果的并不多。\n华安基金副总经理、首席投资官翁启森和苏圻涵是一对“黄金搭档”，一起合作了10年以上，华安香港精选和华安大中华升级自成立以来就由他们合管。两只基金今年均大比例配置了港股，但至今均录得了5%的收益。\n以华安香港精选为例，今年之所以能够逆势强势，主要得益于二季度果断清仓第一重仓股腾讯，避开了后面的大跌，同期虽然加仓了美团，但由于持股分散，对净值冲击并不大；另外该基金三季度重仓布局了能源股，也获得了不错的短期收益。\n翁启森曾是台积电的工程师，后来转型做股票研究和投资，2008年加入华安基金，负责海外投资，并开始了对A股的研究和学习，有着26年的金融行业从业经验，是跨市场投资的多面手。\n由翁启森单独管理的两只主投A股的基金，今年均获得了20%+的收益，配置方向主要是芯片、锂电池等高景气度行业。而在海外投资产品的管理上，翁启森主要把握大方向，做大类资产配置，苏圻涵则从旁协作，两人配合默契。\n\n03、写在最后\n今年的A股投资似乎是这样的场景——把“渗透率”、“景气度”、“赛道投资”写到PPT里的，大概率都赚了不少钱，而把“护城河”、“龙头股”、“长坡厚雪”挂在嘴边的，基本都栽了点跟头。\n总的来说，港股也属于共饮一江悲喜，不幸的行业各有各的不幸，幸福的新能源却都一样。这也许不会是这个市场的常态，但却是今年真真切切演绎出的罕见分化。\n在极端的行情下，在频繁的政策中，大多数义勇南下还打出胜仗的基金，与其说是做对了选择题，不如说是选对了是非题。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":698687614,"gmtCreate":1640383627151,"gmtModify":1640383627151,"author":{"id":"3448510341625835","authorId":"3448510341625835","name":"唯物主义","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b03878e9cc5326e9e3b84f9c74b3feb1","vip":2,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3448510341625835","authorIdStr":"3448510341625835"},"htmlText":"选对了赛道 天天牛市 选错了赛道 天天熊市","listText":"选对了赛道 天天牛市 选错了赛道 天天熊市","text":"选对了赛道 天天牛市 选错了赛道 天天熊市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698687614","repostId":1166277337,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7116795,"gmtCreate":1640576244191,"gmtModify":1640576244228,"authorId":3560335075192580,"author":{"id":3560335075192580,"idStr":"3560335075192580","authorId":3560335075192580,"name":"TerrenceT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77b06dcb68b80d7cd25659e0efc6f6d2","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":698687614,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"对","text":"对","html":"对"},{"id":7114183,"gmtCreate":1640561652496,"gmtModify":1640561652496,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":698687614,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Well said. 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