跟谁学三季度巨亏9亿：潮水退了，才知道谁在裸泳

蓝鲸财经2020-11-23

11月20日披露的截至2020年9月30日的三季报中，跟谁学迎来了自2019年6月6日上市以来的首次亏损。而这一次单季度亏损金额，远超此前累计的所有盈利收入。业绩公布后，跟谁学股价应声大跌，盘中一度跌逾24%。由盈转亏，跟谁学的“神话”是否破灭？上市以来首次亏损便巨亏9亿，究竟缘何？笃信情怀的陈向东，如何看待跟谁学的亏损？未来，跟谁学有没有系统性风险？单季度暴亏9亿，跟谁学“楼塌了”？画...

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精彩评论

凹凸曼不慢
2020-11-23
凹凸曼不慢
喝着瑞幸，上着跟谁学
- Jianyang:
  用着拼多多
银杏天下
2020-11-23
银杏天下
道德底线，职业操守呢？
巴菲特战地
2020-11-23
巴菲特战地
猿辅导亏损70亿，有道亏损8.7亿，收入是跟谁学的三分之一，真想骂你，标题党。
- 看我show:
  无良媒体，天天带节奏
- 有梦想的小韭菜:
  媒体不会炒股，他们顶多算个韭菜
- 狗GOv:
  媒体评价就2种：表扬或贬低，不必在意，自己判断。
- 小狼崽:
  我观察了，洗白一般会跌，被黑，要涨
无常的世界
2020-11-23
无常的世界
今天上午发两次，几个意思

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“唯一一家自上市以来始终持续盈利的K12教培上市公司”。统计其自上市以来的各单季度盈利，共累计盈利3.5亿元。而上市以来的首次亏损，就亏掉了9亿。\n\n为何单季度出现如此巨额亏损？\n2020年第三季度，跟谁学实现营收19.66亿，较比上年同期的5.53亿元同比增长了282.7%。但回顾跟谁学上市近两个财年以来各单季度营收数据，可以看出其增速已出现明显放缓。从刚上市时最高峰值的473.8%增幅，下降到不足300%。\n\n尽管跟谁学在财报中表示，得益于公司业务模式所产生的规模经济效应，本季度实现毛利润14.64亿元，较去年同期的4.00亿元增长265.6%，毛利率也从去年同期的71.9%提升至74.4%，但营业利润却呈现与净利润相同的骤降趋势。\n第三季度，跟谁学营业亏损9.90亿元，首次出现营业亏损是2019年第三季度，彼时仅亏损0.11亿元。仅仅一年，营业亏损扩大了89倍。\n究其原因，跟谁学在财报中表示，营业亏损的增加主要是由于在市场营销活动方面的大力投入，以扩大流量增长及加强品牌认知。\n的确，从单季度费用情况上看，跟谁学对市场营销活动的投入堪称“疯狂”。2020年第三季度，跟谁学营业费用从去年同期的4.11亿元增长了496.86%至24.537亿元。\n\n其中，营销费用再创单季度新高，达20.56亿元，较去年同期的3.30亿元，同比增长了522.3%。与此同时，研发和行政费用也相应地水涨船高。由于专业的课程开发人员和技术研发人员的人数增加及薪酬水平提高，研发费用较去年同期的0.57万元增长286%至2.204亿元；由于行政管理人员的人数增长及薪酬水平提高，以及为独立调查发生的专业服务费的增加，管理费用从去年同期的0.24亿增长了648.7%至1.77亿元。\n这似乎和跟谁学此前笃信的路径有所偏差。跟谁学CFO沈楠在今年2月接受投资者提问时曾公开表示，“跟谁学到目前为止没有付费做过任何的路牌广告、灯箱广告和电视广告等，所以我们在广告端确实要比行业头部要少很多。”\n但今年以来，冠名《极限挑战》、《中国好声音》、《亲爱的小课桌》等多档综艺节目，跟谁学似乎也加入了暑期在线教育的流量大战。\n增长超5倍的营销费用却没有换来经营的暴涨。跟谁学的营收近同比增加282.7%，K-12正价课付费人次仅同比增长140%，远低于营销费用的增速。\n除了费用高企，主要由主讲老师和辅导老师薪酬、教材成本、租金费用以及服务器和带宽成本的增加，第三季度跟谁学主营业务成本为5.02亿元，较去年同期的1.57亿元增长了220.5%。\n营收增速下降、费用成本高企、单季度暴亏9亿，但跟谁学的发展隐患并不止于此。\n由于为扩大用户规模及提高品牌知名度所增加的市场推广费用；快速增长的人员规模带来薪酬的增加；以及为支持学生规模的快速增长和日常经营活动而增加的服务器和带宽费用，2020年第三季度，跟谁学经营净现金流出约为6.79亿元。截至2020年9月30日，公司持有的现金及现金等价物、短期投资及长期投资总计21.31亿元，较比截至2019年同期的27.36亿元，减少了22.11%。\n持有现金减少6亿，单季度现金净流出，客观上为跟谁学现金流带来压力。\n童话破灭，陈向东仍坚信“美丽的人间”？\n2020年11月20日对跟谁学来说是个重要的日子，不仅仅因为最新的业绩变动，还因为跟谁学披露了独立调查结果。\n跟谁学表示，董事会审计委员会在公司被SEC（美国证券交易委员会）联系和调查之前就聘任的第三方专业顾问对多份做空报告中的指控进行了内部独立调查，未发现有任何重大问题。审核结束后，专业顾问将向审计委员会和公司报告审计结果和结论。\n但随着业绩的滑坡，历经14次做空仍逆势上扬的跟谁学股价应声大降，盘前一度跌超15%。当日开盘，跟谁学报56.美6元/股，盘中一度跌幅逼近25%；当日报收65.66美元/股，收跌7.97%。市值为156.48亿美元，一日内蒸发13.31亿美元。\n\n除了资本不再买账外，由于学生学习时间无法恢复，试错成本高，加之市场内巨头林立、百舸争流，家长们对于培训机构的选择也更加审慎。\n蓝鲸教育注意到，在黑猫投诉平台，跟谁学的投诉量已达到123件，其中家长普遍反馈的是跟谁学的虚假宣传、退费难等等问题。\n\n尽管质疑声此起彼伏，但作为创始人，陈向东仍笃信“只要人人都献出一片爱，世界将变成美好的人间”。\n陈向东曾在11月20日的朋友圈中表示：跟谁学和高途课堂的K12业务全面融合，打造升级全新的“高途课堂”，“名师出高途，网课选高途”正在成为更多学生和家长的认知和共鸣。并表示“时间是最好的朋友。时间是好公司最好的朋友。感谢您的相信和支持。信任，不辜负。将心注入，全力以赴！”\n\n对于跟谁学的未来发展，陈向东亦是信心满满。在财报中，陈向东表示：“即使竞争日趋激烈，在线教育市场前景非常广阔，相信我们在过去几个季度积累下来的坚实基础，也让我们对未来几个季度做好了充分准备，去探索各种可能。很期待接下来和各位一起见证在线教育的成长。”\n但与这些“期待”相对的，是持续下滑的增速。跟谁学预计，2020年第四季度，收入介于20.76亿元人民币至21.16亿元人民币之间，同比增幅应介于122.0%至126.3%之间，相比三季度，增速再度下滑。\n不仅如此，跟谁学前路依旧隐患重重。\n尽管独立调查结果显示无任何问题，但针对备受关注的SEC调查，跟谁学则表示，目前仍在继续与SEC保持合作，无法预测SEC调查的时间和后果。\n此外，做空机构浑水的创始人卡森·布洛克日前在接受《棱镜》采访时表示，浑水还在做空跟谁学。\n而刚刚过去的10月，瑞信将跟谁学的ADR评级从“中性”下调为“减持”，目标价也由85美元下调至71美元。跟谁学股价随即出现异动，收跌30.80%。总市值由截至10月20日收盘时的245.33亿美元，骤减至仅有170亿美元，一夜之间蒸发500亿元人民币。\n目前，跟谁学唯一能够应对做空冲击的护身符——业绩，逾期增速也在回归“平庸”。面对资本和市场的双面质疑，跟谁学还能撑多久？","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":399219126,"gmtCreate":1606140356665,"gmtModify":1703841094236,"author":{"id":"3557962791344005","authorId":"3557962791344005","name":"凹凸曼不慢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c7ab80ea804ae22e35af62624076b4","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3557962791344005","authorIdStr":"3557962791344005"},"htmlText":"喝着瑞幸，上着跟谁学","listText":"喝着瑞幸，上着跟谁学","text":"喝着瑞幸，上着跟谁学","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399219126","repostId":1165712688,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3082891,"gmtCreate":1606156048671,"gmtModify":1606156048671,"authorId":3545916099205632,"author":{"id":3545916099205632,"idStr":"3545916099205632","authorId":3545916099205632,"name":"Jianyang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d86460c198e37daff7dd982eeb56c577","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":399219126,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"用着拼多多","text":"用着拼多多","html":"用着拼多多"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":399656568,"gmtCreate":1606128834054,"gmtModify":1703841014220,"author":{"id":"3522696042134664","authorId":"3522696042134664","name":"银杏天下","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3522696042134664","authorIdStr":"3522696042134664"},"htmlText":"道德底线，职业操守呢？","listText":"道德底线，职业操守呢？","text":"道德底线，职业操守呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399656568","repostId":1165712688,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":399843187,"gmtCreate":1606107014649,"gmtModify":1703840873530,"author":{"id":"3527583821851365","authorId":"3527583821851365","name":"巴菲特战地","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d35a0026fe58adff7493aaa392e2ee08","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527583821851365","authorIdStr":"3527583821851365"},"htmlText":"猿辅导亏损70亿，有道亏损8.7亿，收入是跟谁学的三分之一，真想骂你，标题党。","listText":"猿辅导亏损70亿，有道亏损8.7亿，收入是跟谁学的三分之一，真想骂你，标题党。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