Tesla Still Looking For Direction

seekingalpha2021-08-03

Summary Company beats as revenues, margins impress. Cash flow and guidance not very impressive. Shares still not able to break above $750. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News For electric vehicle ...

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精彩评论

MGOH
2021-08-03
MGOH
Good stock
- 6966df2b:
  Good
Nighttt
2021-08-03
Nighttt
Ha to note
Ktzy321
2021-08-03
Ktzy321
Good rebound..
eyescold
2021-08-03
eyescold
👍
- RXX:
  Ok
- mmeowcat:
  Hi
STQIANG
2021-08-03
STQIANG
好的 Clear
Ahsiang
2021-08-03
Ahsiang
Wth

发表看法

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The company's Q2 quarterly update featured top and bottom line beats, headlined by strong margins and operating expense control. However, the bears also got their slice of meat as the yearly forecast wasn't as positive as hoped, cash flow remained iffy, and one major supporter made a surprising sale of shares. In the end, Tesla shares did rally a bit, but they still haven't been able to break out of their recent range.\nAs it turned out,my earnings preview discussing vehicle price raises and other tailwinds for the quarter was spot on. Tesla delivered nearly $12 billion in total revenue for the quarter, topping estimates and my predictions nicely even though I was already more bullish than the street. In the table below, you can see the overall results against my three cases, with dollar values in millions except per share amounts.\n\nIt turns out that those tailwinds certainly helped, and some Megapack projects completed during the period led to energy revenue upside. Credit sales fell roughly as much as I said they would, and net income topped $1.1 billion on a GAAP basis. It also helped that there was $123 million less in stock-based compensation tied to CEO Elon Musk's bonus plan as compared to Q1, leading operating expenses to decline by roughly $50 million sequentially despite the sales surge.\nTesla reported GAAP gross margins of 28.4% in the quarter, nicely up from 26.5% in Q1. Non-GAAP margins, which exclude credit sales, were up almost four percentage points. Management expects margins to improve over time as it produces more vehicles in local markets, such as the Texas and Berlin factories that are scheduled to come online in a few months. Reducing debt and an accounting change have also greatly lowered interest costs, making the bottom line look much better.\nOn the flip side, there were again some concerns about the quality of cash flow. Over the last six quarters, Tesla has produced free cash flow of $3.698 billion. Due to rising production over that time, accounts payable and accrued liabilities have risen by $3.694 billion. Some of that has been offset by an increase in inventory and accounts receivable, the latter of which continues to rise to new highs despite Tesla's direct to consumer model. Tesla has also paid a good deal of debt back in recent quarters and diluted investors considerably over the years to get its cash balance where it is.\nSome investors were also a little disappointed that Tesla didn't raise its yearly delivery forecast. Management is still calling for more than 50% growth, but investors were hoping that the number would be raised well into the 800k area. There seem to be some supply chain issues, and Tesla has again delayed the Semi into 2022. It also seems that the Cybertruck will be pushed back into next year as well since the factory in Texas will start with Model Y production. Management still believes that both new factories will start their respective Model Y production this year, but given that we are now in August with nothing major happening yet, it won't be at the volumes that some were hoping for when 2021 started.\nOne other interesting item that the bears will point to is that Ark Invest sold some Tesla shares on Friday for its flagship Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK). This was not a sale due to redemptions, but a change in allocation as seen in the graphic below. Tesla bulls may point to the fact that it was approaching a weight of 10.75% in ARKK, so they will say that this was just a small trim of an outsized position. However, I would counter by saying that Tesla's weight was a full percentage point higher in the Ark Autonomous Technology and Robotics ETF (ARKQ), around 11.75% as of Monday, and has been for some time without any sales there. For a firm with a $3,000 price target on the stock, there are those who find it very curious that Ark Invest is selling Tesla below $700 a share.\n(Screenshot taken from Ark Invest daily e-mail sent to author)\nOver the past couple of weeks, Tesla shares actually spent some time below their average price target on the street. This was an unusual event, because, for a good chunk of this year, they were well above the street's average valuation, at one point by nearly 50%. However, early Monday were trading about $50 above the target again, so it seems that analysts believe the stock is a little overvalued at this point.\nTesla didn't really respond to the earnings report, but they did rally late in the week and into Monday morning. This has improved the technical picture as seen in the chart below, with the 50-day moving average (purple line) starting to rise again. Shares still haven't been able to get above the $750 mark since the April high, so the stock seems to be stuck in a bit of a range currently.\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nLast week didn't really solve any of the major arguments surrounding Tesla on either the bull or bear side. The Q2 earnings report did show some positive surprises, but guidance was less than stellar and the cash flow scenario remained so-so. With more product delays on the horizon, the stock has popped a little but not been able to fully break out of a multi-month range, so investors will be looking to find the next major catalyst.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":804547300,"gmtCreate":1627968024400,"gmtModify":1633754770665,"author":{"id":"3558490783279911","authorId":"3558490783279911","name":"MGOH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3985c9c508308ba1d202fb4e710894e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558490783279911","authorIdStr":"3558490783279911"},"htmlText":"Good stock&nbsp;","listText":"Good stock&nbsp;","text":"Good stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804547300","repostId":1164984760,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5420298,"gmtCreate":1628042342198,"gmtModify":1635160614198,"authorId":3584325113965172,"author":{"id":3584325113965172,"idStr":"3584325113965172","authorId":3584325113965172,"name":"6966df2b","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804547300,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good","text":"Good","html":"Good"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804541711,"gmtCreate":1627967700033,"gmtModify":1633754773783,"author":{"id":"3585088091412485","authorId":"3585088091412485","name":"Nighttt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3663b0052922ebacbdffecfeae15d53d","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585088091412485","authorIdStr":"3585088091412485"},"htmlText":"Ha to note","listText":"Ha to note","text":"Ha to note","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804541711","repostId":1164984760,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804529945,"gmtCreate":1627965799087,"gmtModify":1633754789314,"author":{"id":"4087719824376500","authorId":"4087719824376500","name":"Ktzy321","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66a1c6e8a91ec4b49afc6e9790b41017","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087719824376500","authorIdStr":"4087719824376500"},"htmlText":"Good rebound..","listText":"Good rebound..","text":"Good rebound..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804529945","repostId":1164984760,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804270409,"gmtCreate":1627960842801,"gmtModify":1633754842668,"author":{"id":"3582062230385855","authorId":"3582062230385855","name":"eyescold","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/947cfb8056822e3c4b4c3ace4c59dd6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582062230385855","authorIdStr":"3582062230385855"},"htmlText":"👍&nbsp;","listText":"👍&nbsp;","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804270409","repostId":1164984760,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5410489,"gmtCreate":1627962460125,"gmtModify":1635161372789,"authorId":3581914245836452,"author":{"id":3581914245836452,"idStr":"3581914245836452","authorId":3581914245836452,"name":"RXX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4b5a03d25bea5fa50ec0dd0a11e9e39","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804270409,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":5410590,"gmtCreate":1627963015187,"gmtModify":1635161366247,"authorId":4087724024405330,"author":{"id":4087724024405330,"idStr":"4087724024405330","authorId":4087724024405330,"name":"mmeowcat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1755a0bc34ad3556076826eafa4e9609","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":804270409,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Hi</u>","text":"<u>Hi</u>","html":"<u>Hi</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":804270322,"gmtCreate":1627960789766,"gmtModify":1627960789766,"author":{"id":"3559881459173473","authorId":"3559881459173473","name":"STQIANG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/565ff0f99f3f5c394ad46a880ec9644d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559881459173473","authorIdStr":"3559881459173473"},"htmlText":"好的 Clear","listText":"好的 Clear","text":"好的 Clear","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804270322","repostId":1164984760,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":804270013,"gmtCreate":1627960771432,"gmtModify":1633754843239,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"htmlText":"Wth&nbsp;","listText":"Wth&nbsp;","text":"Wth","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804270013","repostId":1164984760,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":83,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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