Why markets are like a duck: ‘calm above the surface, but furious churning below’

Marketwatch2021-11-09

Mario Draghi famously likened the euro to a bumblebee; Morgan Stanley analysts say global financial markets remind them of a duck floating on a pond: “calm above the surface, but furious churning ...

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精彩评论

DeMalco
2021-11-09
DeMalco
Quack! Quack!
HENRYCSC
2021-11-09
HENRYCSC
[Smile] [Smile] [Smile]
zhen130
2021-11-09
zhen130
Pls like
Joe0319
2021-11-09
Joe0319
Nice
koolgal
2021-11-09
koolgal
I like the analogy, duck in a calm surface with furious underwater current! Hopefully the market will remain calm and stay calm. 🎉🎊🎉
- koolgal:
  Thanks
- 3f585b4d:
  🦤
- koolgal:
  Thanks
- Michaelcool:
  Nice
jayfalcon
2021-11-09
jayfalcon
Nope actually is: calm on the surface, but paddle like hell... !! [思考]

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Morgan Stanley analysts say global financial markets remind them of a duck floating on a pond: “calm above the surface, but furious churning ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-markets-are-like-a-duck-calm-above-the-surface-but-furious-churning-below-11636395875?siteid=yhoof2\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-markets-are-like-a-duck-calm-above-the-surface-but-furious-churning-below-11636395875?siteid=yhoof2","article_id":"1164632864","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164632864","pubTimestamp":1636452133,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"market_watch","name":"华尔街大事件"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Mario Draghi famously likened the euro to a bumblebee; Morgan Stanley analysts say global financial ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"为什么市场像鸭子：“表面平静，下面翻腾”","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"Mario Draghi famously likened the euro to a bumblebee; Morgan Stanley analysts say global financial markets remind them of a duck floating on a pond: “calm above the surface, but furious churning below.”\nThe calm is reflected in a continued drop in realized, or actual, stock-market volatility as global equities soar to all-time highs. The analysts, led by Andrew Sheets, observed in a Friday note that realized, one-month equity volatility across the U.S., Europe and emerging markets has fallen to the 25th percentile of the last 15 years.\nBut below the surface, “volatility has jumped” for other assets, they wrote, unveiling a new cross-asset gauge, dubbed the Composite Sigma Indicator, which stands at its highest reading in five years with the exception of the COVID-induced turmoil of the second quarter of 2020 (see chart below). That reflects a rising number of extreme one-day moves, defined as a standard deviation of larger than 1.5.\nMORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH\nAnyone who has paid attention to the U.S. and global government bond markets in recent weeks probably won’t be surprised to learn that rates markets are at the heart of those moves. 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The moves also wrong-footed investors, leaving some high-profile hedge funds with large October losses,according to The Wall Street Journal.\nTwo-year rates in Poland, meanwhile, have risen by 85 basis points, or 0.85 percentage point, a 12.2 sigma deviation on the distribution of weekly moves for the rate, the analysts noted. The U.K. saw “extreme dislocations” as short-term rates rose and long-term rates fell, while in commodities markets, iron-ore prices are down 20%.\n“Rates are the sole driver of this move, while other assets are unusually calm. Risk management in global rates feels very different from equities or FX heading into year-end,” the analysts wrote.\nStocks stumbled in September, but major indexes roared back in October and continue to press to all-time highs this month. The S&P 500 was up 26.9% year to date through Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied 21.2% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 23.9%.\nSo what does it all mean? “It suggests that the liquidity environment is already shifting, even if not readily apparent in the S&P 500,” they said.\nIt also means that risk premium matters (see chart below).\nMORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH\n“Many of the markets with the largest recent moves were those priced for the calmest environments. As idiosyncratic risk rises, and risk management becomes more challenging, we see opportunities in high versus low risk premium markets,” they wrote.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":847001781,"gmtCreate":1636465783880,"gmtModify":1636466396549,"author":{"id":"4093087325774930","authorId":"4093087325774930","name":"DeMalco","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78efec80aeff05e75efe77b09ce93c42","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Quack! Quack!&nbsp;","listText":"Quack! Quack!&nbsp;","text":"Quack! Quack!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847001781","repostId":1164632864,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":844721772,"gmtCreate":1636462423002,"gmtModify":1636462425950,"author":{"id":"3575091428590185","authorId":"3575091428590185","name":"HENRYCSC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d47a6dec25b21dc547a5b982674c499","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile] [Smile] [Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844721772","repostId":1164632864,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":844729232,"gmtCreate":1636462146853,"gmtModify":1636462147584,"author":{"id":"3570360623104656","authorId":"3570360623104656","name":"zhen130","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/553509e2e649eaf0d39f267a7e6de1a1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844729232","repostId":1164632864,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":844794423,"gmtCreate":1636458248148,"gmtModify":1636458315235,"author":{"id":"3578544701064972","authorId":"3578544701064972","name":"Joe0319","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b84d55e902f3cdc3167d94be984be1f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844794423","repostId":1164632864,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":844796617,"gmtCreate":1636458054387,"gmtModify":1636458054387,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"I like the analogy, duck in a calm surface with furious underwater current!&nbsp; Hopefully the market&nbsp;will remain calm and stay calm. 🎉🎊🎉","listText":"I like the analogy, duck in a calm surface with furious underwater current!&nbsp; Hopefully the market&nbsp;will remain calm and stay calm. 🎉🎊🎉","text":"I like the analogy, duck in a calm surface with furious underwater current! Hopefully the market will remain calm and stay calm. 🎉🎊🎉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":23,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844796617","repostId":1164632864,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6521297,"gmtCreate":1636515849129,"gmtModify":1636515849129,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":844796617,"type":1,"supId":6519901,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","html":"Thanks"},{"id":6519901,"gmtCreate":1636508145910,"gmtModify":1636508146014,"authorId":4094345516143680,"author":{"id":4094345516143680,"authorId":4094345516143680,"name":"3f585b4d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":844796617,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"🦤","text":"🦤","html":"🦤"},{"id":6518972,"gmtCreate":1636504870818,"gmtModify":1636504870818,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":844796617,"type":1,"supId":6518675,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","html":"Thanks"},{"id":6518675,"gmtCreate":1636503934260,"gmtModify":1636503934349,"authorId":4097668818199780,"author":{"id":4097668818199780,"authorId":4097668818199780,"name":"Michaelcool","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32bc63bf20e8eaf14c88a42ef0eb9ef2","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":844796617,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Nice</u>","text":"<u>Nice</u>","html":"<u>Nice</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":844704158,"gmtCreate":1636457546393,"gmtModify":1636461887274,"author":{"id":"4090418835913750","authorId":"4090418835913750","name":"jayfalcon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/505029b8d840d52745c57c2cbf910d5c","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Nope actually is: calm on the surface, but paddle like hell... !!&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"Nope actually is: calm on the surface, but paddle like hell... !!&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","text":"Nope actually is: calm on the surface, but paddle like hell... !! [思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844704158","repostId":1164632864,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":107,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1164632864"}