和宁德时代合作再生变数，苹果造车依旧强势

36氪2021-07-18

在造车这一全新领域，即便有钱、有人、有号召力，只要Apple Car没真正上路，也很难断言常胜神话会终结还是延续。 Apple Car的轮廓正越来越清晰。根据DigiTimes Asia报道，苹果正遴选Apple Car的电池供应商，宁德时代、比亚迪都在谈判名单中。但苹果坚持要用美国产的电池，如果宁德时代和比亚迪不愿意在美国建厂，或许无法入选。苹果已经开始将目光转向愿意在美国设厂的富士康和立凯...

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精彩评论

好犀利
2021-07-19
好犀利
好期待
KenCheng
2021-07-18
KenCheng
可以买
- KenCheng:
  如果再跌
瞎诹一通善恪尕徳
2021-07-18
瞎诹一通善恪尕徳
苹果汽车不一定获得巨大成功，但苹果就是苹果，无可比拟
- 铭发:
  苹果好吃
- 瞎诹一通善恪尕徳:
  好吃
kenp
2021-07-18
kenp
Good
haiwei183
2021-07-18
haiwei183
强
Vincent8090
2021-07-18
Vincent8090
[呆住]
- Yuyi:
  🤩

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Car的电池供应商，宁德时代、比亚迪都在谈判名单中。但苹果坚持要用美国产的电池，如果宁德时代和比亚迪不愿意在美国建厂，或许无法入选。苹果已经开始将目光转向愿意在美国设厂的富士康和立凯电能。\n苹果造车终于有了些实质性进展。比起iPhone一年迭代一次，苹果造车历程可谓漫长。根据熟悉苹果的分析师郭明錤在报告中透露：苹果汽车问世最早都要在2025年。\n去年末，苹果已经将在美国设厂提上日程，并开始摸底上下游供应链。而上个月，根据路透社报道，苹果已经开始和宁德时代和比亚迪洽谈。即便最后没能谈拢，也可以看出苹果造车计划已经走到了供应链阶段。而根据日经报道，一家供应商的高管表示“（苹果）至少正与约6家企业推进（造整车）谈判”。\n在电子设备供应链，苹果是抢破头都要拿下的大客户，也有不少公司依托苹果市值暴涨，在很短时间长成热捧的明星公司。转投汽车领域，苹果却成为让人戒备的闯入者。苹果从来在供应链都有绝对主导权，但在造车这7年的起伏中，他们苦涩地发现自己四处碰壁。和电池供应商的谈判生变不是第一次，也不会是最后一次。\n强势的苹果VS强势的供应链\n苹果一直没能找到谈得拢的造车伙伴。\n这背后有个尴尬的现实，苹果曾定义了智能机、真无线蓝牙耳机和平板设备，它顺理成章成为规则的制定人。它已经习惯了控制、也习惯了强硬。\n很多时候，供应链的兴衰起落都跟随着苹果的动作。富士康70%的订单来自苹果，甚至按照苹果的要求，将部分生产线移到了越南。\n任何关于苹果的风吹草动都会引起“果链”公司的波动。欣旺达2011年通过与ATL合作，开始为iPhone 3和iPod供应电池，但iPhone 4的供应商换成了德赛，直接导致欣旺达净利润同比下滑了13%。\n被股民戏称为“果链三傻” 歌尔股份、蓝思科技和立讯精密今年因为iPhone 12mini表现不佳等因素，在3个月中股价跌了40%以上。\n离开苹果加持，这些果链公司多半会变得无聊，被资本市场扔在脑后。今年被剔出的欧菲光就是鲜活的案例——股价已经跌回2年前。\n然而，在电动汽车领域，它是个后来者。把持行业的巨头们当然不会忽视苹果这样极具号召力的客户，但也不至于依赖苹果光环。\n2020年，宁德时代全年装机量达到34Gwh，位列第一，其后是LG化学和为特斯拉供货的松下，前十的名单中没有富士康和立凯电能。面对本身已经是巨头的电池供应链，很难说谁更强势，苹果找到富士康和立凯电能也算权宜之计。\n苹果和主机厂的合作也一直经历着类似不断的转场。\n2015年，据德国《经理人杂志》报道，库克饶有兴致地访问了宝马莱比锡的i3工厂，还想在宝马i3基础上开发自己的电动车。据路透社称，当时宝马方的人还暗示了合作意向，但很快没了下文，因为宝马并不愿意将自己的技术倾囊相授，沦为代工厂。\n之后苹果又找到奔驰母公司戴姆勒，开放式的结局和宝马类似：不合作造整车，不排除其他合作。“我们不打算成苹果的富士康。”时任戴姆勒CEO的迪特·蔡澈如此表示。\n日韩车企成为苹果下一波目标，和宝马、戴姆勒类似的故事在日产汽车上重演。但和韩国企业的合作有一次已经呼之欲出。今年2月3日，CNBC报道苹果正和起亚合作生产汽车，而且是名副其实的“Apple Car”，起亚给了很大支持，软硬件都会握在苹果自己手中。\n\n图片来自MondayNote概念图\n然而，报道发布后一周，起亚发布公告，称没有与苹果公司就合作研发自动驾驶汽车事宜进行谈判。\n一位匿名高管解释原因时，重复了起亚和宝马、戴姆勒相同的顾虑。但这也许只是理由之一， SK Securities 的分析师Kwon Soon-woo 表示，“新闻曝光，可能违反了保密协议，这可不是很舒服的事。”\n苹果向来对供应链管控严格，尤其重视保密，CNBC报道触到了苹果的逆鳞。合作时本就各怀心思，不欢而散也不算意外。和起亚合作告吹后，苹果又找到了同样在韩国的LG，结局又悬而未决。\n主机厂也好、Tier 1的供应商也好，面对苹果这样2万亿美元市值的庞然巨兽，很难不心生顾虑。或许对于苹果来说，过去辉煌的成功反而成为一种魔咒。\n苹果进入陌生地带\n没人能否认苹果的技术实力，根据路透社报道，苹果已经研发出了“突破性”的电池技术monocell（单电池），也就是将所有电芯融在一起，去掉电池之间的空隙，这样同样大小的电池包里可以容纳更大容量的电池，提供更长续航，也能节约成本。\n如果这种技术量产，正如当时iPhone横空问世一样，无疑又是一次行业地震。\n但电动车的技术难关不仅仅是电池，电驱、电机等等都是苹果陌生的领域，苹果还想涉足无人驾驶和车载系统。苹果最热衷这种大包大揽的软硬件，特斯拉的成功也证明了可行性，但比起初创公司，苹果显然有更多掣肘。\n最初，苹果双管齐下，虽然硬件进展不顺利，但车载系统CarPlay饱受好评，去年售出的新车中60%都支持CarPlay。\n这只是权宜之计，车厂迟早会使用自己的系统，只做操作系统根本不能承载苹果的野心。开发自有汽车碰壁后，苹果一度转向门槛更高的无人驾驶技术。\n但苹果似乎没有全力以赴，多年以来，它的路测数据都大幅度落后于谷歌。根据加州机动车管理局2020年报告，苹果去年路测里程为3万公里，谷歌系无人驾驶汽车公司Waymo去年路测里程已经达到了101万公里。\n无人清楚苹果内部发生着什么，外界只能靠一个个高管离职描摹它的动荡。仅仅在2021年，苹果自动驾驶汽车团队就有三位高管离职，其中包括老兵本杰明.利昂，正是他帮助组建了最初的汽车团队，并且领导了几个关键项目。\n但从四处高薪挖人，又可以看出苹果对汽车业务的重视。在造车团队中，有曾负责保时捷底盘开发业务的副总裁曼弗雷德·哈勒，前 Model 3 首席工程师、特斯拉高级工程副总裁道格.菲尔德。上个月，宝马的前高管乌尔里希・克兰兹加入苹果团队，正是他带领开发了库克当年尤为感兴趣的i3。\n\n道格.菲尔德 图片来自：electrek\n即便和外部合作徘徊不前，很多人仍然相信苹果整合供应链的能力。摩根斯坦利曾表示：“借鉴特斯拉的成功，我们一直认为，像苹果这样的科技企业要比传统OEM厂商拥有更强大的竞争力。”\n苹果多年没在消费电子产品上翻车，甚至留下只要它出手，产品就会大卖的印象。然而在造车这一全新领域，面对超过3万个零件的汽车，即便有钱、有人、有号召力，只要Apple 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