BlackBerry Is Dead Money, Here's Why

Seeking Alpha2021-09-27

Summary BlackBerry continues to face significant revenue challenges. A steep year-over-year revenue decline and lower gross margins loomed large in BlackBerry’s Q2’22 earnings card. BlackBerry ...

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精彩评论

bostonxsgp
2021-09-27
bostonxsgp
Tell me your opinion about this news...
- YZhaha:
  sell
WaiT
2021-09-27
WaiT
ok
Jrrr92
2021-09-27
Jrrr92
Okie
- bostonxsgp:
  ok
SolidSnake
2021-09-27
SolidSnake
Good review
- SolidSnake:
  Good
- SolidSnake:
  Good
- SolidSnake:
  Good

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The firm's earnings card showed a large revenue drop year over year and negative operating cash flow/free cash flow for the first six months of the year. Since the revenue trend still hasn't been reversed, the stock is not a buy!\nMeme buzz for a struggling business that hasn't found itself yet\nBlackBerry is once again a hotly discussed subject on the widely read investment forum \"WallStreetBets\", which shot to fame in 2021 when mostly younger investors banded together on Reddit and successfully forced hedge funds to close their short positions in video game retailer GameStop(NYSE:GME). BlackBerry started to attract more attention as a potential short squeeze target earlier this year due to its unresolved business challenges and high short interest ratio. In 2021, shares of BlackBerry spiked twice on heavy, Reddit-organized retail buying and attempts to ignite a short squeeze, but the stock faded from its highs. Shares of BlackBerry went through a 50% drop in pricing since June. About 7% of BlackBerry's shares are shorted.\nData by YCharts\nDespite meme buzz developing around the BlackBerry name this year, the firm's second-quarter showed that business challenges have not successfully been addressed yet and that a revenue turnaround is still not around the corner. BlackBerry generated just $175M in revenues in Q2'22, showing a top-line decline of 32% year over year. Q2'22 revenues, however, increased $1M quarter over quarter on higher Cyber Security revenues. The firm's Cyber Security segment added $13M in revenues in the second-quarter due to strengthening billings, but the segment still generated about the same level of revenues in Q2'22 as it did in the year-earlier period, about $120M. The Internet of Things/IoT segment generated $40M in revenues, a decline of $3M quarter over quarter. BlackBerry's IoT segment includes revenues generated from its QNX operating system which is embedded in more than 195M vehicles. BlackBerry's QNX-related revenues come chiefly from production-based royalties so the revenue outlook for this segment is inextricably tied to the turnaround prospects of the automotive industry.\nBlackBerry's gross margins also continued to decline in the second-quarter with gross margins falling from 76.8% in Q2'21 to 64.0% in Q2'22. Gross margin, expressed as dollars, declined 43.7% year over year to only $112M. Total dollar loss in the second-quarter increased by a factor of six to $144M.\nSource: BlackBerry\nAlthough BlackBerry generated a $1M increase in sales growth quarter over quarter, the longer-term trend shows a continual erosion of its revenue base. The firm has not turned the corner in the second-quarter and BlackBerry's suffering has not ended yet...\nData by YCharts\nBlackBerry, however, generated a positive cash flow from operating activities of $12M in the second-quarter. After investments, $10M in free cash flow remained… which calculates to a margin of just 5.7%. Due to negative cash flow from operating activities in Q1'22, free cash flow for the first six months of FY 2022 was $(25M).\nSource: BlackBerry\nBlackBerry sees stronger revenues in the second half of the year compared to the first-half for both of its main businesses, Cyber Security and IoT. BlackBerry defended its revenue guidance on the second-quarter Conference Call (transcript) and said that the Cyber Security business should generate between $495M and $515M in revenues in FY 2022, with revenues likely to fall into the low end of the range. The IoT business is expected to generate $180M to $200M in revenues this fiscal year, although prospects for sales growth are related to a better flow of semiconductors in the automotive industry. Based on complementary information provided on the Conference Call, BlackBerry sees risks related to the recovery of the automotive sector in the second-half of FY 2022… which is set to impact QNX-related revenues.\nSource: BlackBerry\nDespite a challenging revenue situation, losses and negative free cash flow, BlackBerry trades at a P-S ratio of 6.7… a multiplier factor normally reserved for companies that are expanding and growing revenues rapidly. BlackBerry now offers only the valuation of such a company, but not the fundamentals. The P-S ratio assumes FY 2023 sales of $882M. Revenue estimates are also falling...\nData by YCharts\nRisks with BlackBerry\nBlackBerry is still subject to a long-term revenue decline and so far no evidence has come to light that could lead the market to believe that things are changing for the better. Although the firm is trying to move into a new business direction with Cyber Security and IoT, revenue challenges persist, BlackBerry's free cash flow is not great and declining gross margins are not exactly evidence of strengthening commercial performance. If BlackBerry doesn't find a solution to its consistent revenue declines and its negative free cash flow, the market could lose its patience with BlackBerry and punish it with a lower sales multiplier.\nIf BlackBerry gains revenue momentum in the last two quarters of FY 2022, achieves higher gross margins and generates positive free cash flow, then I am willing to change my outlook for the stock. Given BlackBerry's dim revenue and margin history, however, the chances of this happening are slim.\nFinal thoughts\nBlackBerry's business continues to be stuck in quicksand and any money invested in the firm is likely \"dead money\" for the foreseeable future. BlackBerry is not making material progress fast enough and the steep year-over-year revenue decline stings. BlackBerry needs a much stronger rebound in revenues and cash flow to grow into its current market value. Based on BlackBerry's commercial performance, the shares remain massively overvalued!","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":866346805,"gmtCreate":1632740287307,"gmtModify":1632798195425,"author":{"id":"3584157491931754","authorId":"3584157491931754","name":"bostonxsgp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d82efabeabddb18cc2d6ca7a71a36f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this 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