Tesla: Recent Weakness Is An Opportunity

seekingalpha2021-06-28

Summary Tesla has been declining during the recent months, creating opportunities for patient investors. Rising competition and profit concerns are not a problem for Tesla due to its key advantages. ...

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精彩评论

Al385
2021-06-28
Al385
📈🚀
HLB00
2021-06-28
HLB00
[Smile]
meowx3
2021-06-28
meowx3
Leggo!!
rsu
2021-06-28
rsu
👌
- firefirefire:
  Good job.. buy buy
Mandaaa
2021-06-28
Mandaaa
Ok
sasa11
2021-06-28
sasa11
More weakness so tt can enter
- me168:
  [哇塞]
- Traditional:
  厉害
- me168:
  [吃瓜]

发表看法

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This could be seen as normal since the stock saw a massive bull run in 2020 and some noticeable risks started arising. One of these risks was inflationary pressure leading to investors speculating that the FED will taper and raise rates earlier than expected. This fear caused the overall tech and growth sector to decline. However, the inflationary fears dragging the tech and growth sector have been weakening over the past few months. Although the actual inflation seen in the CPI data worsened year-over-year, investors are reacting less negatively to the news, lessening the pressure on overall tech and growth stocks. Also, the 10-year treasury yield is declining finally setting up a potential for a rotation back into tech and growth. Thus, as the overall market is turning favorable for tech and growth stocks, I would like to discuss one of the most famous growth stocks, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA).\nInvestment Thesis\nTesla recently has been under attack as investors started questioning valuations and competitive risks. Some bearish arguments pointed out that the competition was intensifying in the BEV (battery electric vehicle) industry, and that Tesla is still unprofitable without selling Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and carbon emissions credit. While I agree that these risks are legitimate and should be considered, I believe that these risks are insignificant to Tesla’s future opportunities. In fact, I think this short-term turmoil is only causing buying opportunities. Here’s why:\n\nTesla is creating its own ecosystem that no other automakers can replicate.\nIn the age where data is the new oil, Tesla is the only automaker utilizing the valuable data.\n\nBears Say: Tesla Is Still Unprofitable\nBy now, it is well known that Tesla’s profitability does not come from selling cars. Tesla, despite improvements over the years, still relies heavily on regulatory credits to generate income. I believe that this does not pose any problem. Tesla simply does not need to make money today; this may continue to be a threat in the short term, but I think the current profitability structure is fine from a long-term investor perspective. Tesla has been treading along the profitability breakeven point; I think Tesla is leveraging its ability to generate cash from selling regulatory credits to invest back into its growth. The BEV market is just getting started and as bears have pointed out, the competition is starting to roll in; thus, there is no reason for Tesla to sacrifice growth for profits today.\nAn example of Tesla focusing on growth instead of profits is Tesla’s commitment to making a 25,000$ vehicle.This cheap vehicle will not be good for Tesla’s margins or net income; however, the vehicle will further strengthen Tesla’s ecosystem, which will be discussed later, and expand the overall BEV market. As the overall BEV market expands, the volume will soon follow, allowing Tesla to be more efficient with scale as the most expensive component in the vehicle, lithium-ion battery price decreases over time. Tesla’s strategy has been clear since the beginning: focus on growth. Nothing has changed but investors' expectations; profits will naturally follow as the market matures. Now is simply not the time to focus on profits.\nBloomberg: Quoting GM CEO Mary\n\n EV margins will match what they are today for combustion-engine cars by the “mid or later part of the decade.”\n\nFurthermore, as the quote shows, EV profitability is not only Tesla’s problem. No automaker is making significant positive net income selling BEV vehicles today. Thus, Tesla's focus on growth and the economies of scale should not be criticized.\n\nAs the picture above shows, Lithium-ion battery pack costs are continuing to decrease significantly, and as this trend accelerates, Tesla’s margin will naturally go up. Thus, Tesla’s best interest is still in growth and expansion rather than achieving limited profitability today.\nUnique Ecosystem\nMoving on to my bullish argument, Tesla has a unique ecosystem that can not be replicated by any other legacy automobile manufacturers. To know the importance of an ecosystem, we need to look at Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL). What makes Apple so different? Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) sells more phones than Apple, yet Apple makes more money, by far. Furthermore, iPhone does not have the highest specs. iPhones do not have the best camera (in terms of megapixels), biggest RAM, biggest storage, or best screen refresh rate. Then, why is Apple making so much money and why can't other manufacturers with similar technology replicate Apple’s success? The answer to this question, in my opinion, is that Apple has an ecosystem that can not be replicated by Samsung or any other phone maker. Consumers love Apple’s ecosystem that offers every service in a simple, immersive, and frictionless manner. Once a consumer enters this ecosystem, it is almost impossible to leave. Apple makes its own chips, operating system, music services, tablets, laptops, app stores, and many more services locking in loyal customers and selling products at higher margins. Then, what is Tesla’s ecosystem? It is still in the early stages, but Tesla is the only automaker that operates its own charging station allowing consumers to experience the frictionless ecosystem or connectivity. Tesla cars preheat the battery and get the battery ready for supercharging while the car locates the chargers and leads the driver to the superchargers. The ecosystem does not stop here, Tesla, like Apple, designs its own chips, own operating system, and autonomous driving technology, which creates an immersive and frictionless ecosystem like Apple. The software and charging experience is unmatched, and it is only getting better with the eventual rise of autonomous technology and rumored Tesla restaurants.\nThis ecosystem will not only make Tesla unique, but it will also prevent consumers from moving over to its competitors because for consumers, it's all about modernized simplistic design with a frictionless experience that feels luxurious. I can't imagine any other automaker that can replicate Tesla’s brand and ecosystem. No automaker today is even close to providing its own superchargers, autonomous driving technologies, and unique software. Plus, no legacy automakers are or can sell FSD software for additional ten thousand dollars. The brand power, in my opinion, is strong enough to minimize the threat from the competition.\nThus, I believe investors do not need to worry too much about net income as long as the operational efficiencies do not get significantly worse. Tesla, in my opinion, is creating an ecosystem that will generate significant profitability through higher margins and more loyal customers in the future. Tesla is simply in its growth phases.\nRising Competition\nRising competition is a serious threat despite Tesla's unique ecosystem. I think it is true that the legacy automakers are posing some risks to Tesla; however, I believe that the risk is not great enough to hinder Tesla’s growth. I do agree that more prominent competitors like Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) do pose an immense threat, but I do not see this as the end of Tesla. In fact, I think both companies will thrive at the end of the day.\nI will not go into details on why I believe that both Volkswagen and Tesla will succeed in the BEV market today because I will be focusing on why I think Tesla’s growth will not be affected by Volkswagen.\nFirst,the sheer size of the electric vehicle market is big enough to support multiple major players. In the age of ICE vehicles, Volkswagen was not the only major company. Similarly, I believe that the size of the EV market will support both Tesla, Volkswagen, and a few more companies. By 2025, the EV sales in the U.S. alone are expected to reach 6.9 million, far above 500,000 Tesla vehicle sales in 2020.\nSecond, I believe Tesla has unique advantages like selling its FSD software for 10,000 dollars. We all know that selling EVs is not profitable yet, which makes Tesla selling its software extremely important. The Tesla brand is strong enough to sell an FSD software for 10,000 dollars. I believe that this advantage can not easily be implemented by other companies because it is the result of brand power and loyalty that comes from its ecosystem. By selling its software, Tesla can decrease the price of its vehicles, like in Japan and South Korea, while maintaining some levels of margin for growth Detering some threats from the competition.\nData Advantage\nData, without any doubt, is becoming the new oil, getting more valuable by the seconds. The company that can correctly control and utilize data will be the winner going forward, and the very company utilizing massive amounts of user data is Tesla. Unlike any other autonomous driving technology developers, users pay Tesla to provide the company with the necessary data to improve the autonomous driving system. Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Waymo uses specialized cars in heavily mapped areas to operate regional taxi networks, which costs money. However, Tesla’s customer, upon purchasing the vehicle, provides Tesla with valuable data for the company to process turning it into an autonomous vehicle technology. Also, the volume of the data Tesla can collect from its customers is simply unmatched. I think the advantage over the long term is obvious because the amount of data Tesla accumulates and utilizes will continue to far outpace any of its competitors potentially allowing Tesla to become one of the first companies to fully launch level 4 or above FSD.\nRisk\nI think the most obvious risk to my investment thesis is bias. Although I do not own any Tesla shares today, I have a very positive view of this company and plan to purchase shares in the coming weeks as I reallocate a portion of my portfolio to growth and tech stocks; thus, I may have introduced significant bias in my article by downplaying the competitive risk that Tesla faces. Also, because of my bias, I may have overstated the brand power that Tesla has.\nOther than my bias, I believe political risk concerning China is one of Tesla's greatest threats. Political tensions between the countries led by the United States and China, are growing. During the past weekend,the G7 meeting further solidified this tension as the group of 7 nations targeted China’s human rights and coronavirus problems. The politics may change consumer sentiment in China or lead to Chinese government risk. For example, the Chinese government accused Tesla of spying on China using its cameras.It is clear that tensions are worsening and geopolitical threats will not be easing any time soon causing immense risk to Tesla.\nValuation and Financials\nMultiple bearish arguments target that Tesla has an extremely high valuation at about 130 times the forward price to earnings. I believe that one must pay high prices for high-growth companies. Tesla is expected to grow its delivery volume by about 50% in 2021. I believe that his goal is achievable because Tesla is still selling less than 1 million vehicles a year, which is very small compared to competitors in the automobile industry. Also, the completion of Gigafactory Berlin and Austin later this year will contribute to the growth forecast. Finally, investors must take into account that Tesla is in its growth phases not growing profitability. As building EVs becomes profitable and Tesla enjoys the extra margin from its FSD software sale, profits have the potential to exponentially rise. Thus, I believe that the current argument on high valuation is not a huge concern. Investors need to look at Tesla as a high-growth company in its early stages.\nTesla's financials are fairly good suggesting that risks regarding financial health are limited. The company had about 17 billion dollars in cash and equivalents, which accounted for about 2.8% of the market cap. Tesla had a total asset of about 53 billion dollars and a total liability of about 28.5 billion dollars equating to a shareholder equity value of about 23 billion dollars and a liability to asset ratio (L/A) of about 53.7. The overall balance sheet poses no threat, and the immense cash pile is enough to support Tesla's growth; thus, I believe that Tesla's financials do not pose any threat to the company's future.\nSummary\nI believe that recent consolidation and weakness in Tesla is creating opportunities for long-term investors. Tesla is indeed unprofitable without regulatory credits and that competition is starting to heat up in the market. However, because Tesla is and was a growth company from the beginning, I believe that the profit levels today are acceptable. The company is simply choosing future growth over today's profits. Also, along with an EV market that can support multiple players, Tesla's unique ecosystem, brand loyalty, and data utilization will shield the company from experience any slow down. Rising competition is natural and should not be feared. Finally, the valuation and risk regarding China may be a concern; however, I believe, for reasons that I have discussed, Tesla is a buy today.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":150903501,"gmtCreate":1624879557503,"gmtModify":1633947610852,"author":{"id":"3563863691814974","authorId":"3563863691814974","name":"Al385","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51b962289811e9774fd45f1320a21259","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563863691814974","authorIdStr":"3563863691814974"},"htmlText":"📈🚀","listText":"📈🚀","text":"📈🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150903501","repostId":1163132894,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":150085672,"gmtCreate":1624875689796,"gmtModify":1633947653176,"author":{"id":"3585508805597353","authorId":"3585508805597353","name":"HLB00","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585508805597353","authorIdStr":"3585508805597353"},"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150085672","repostId":1163132894,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":150017186,"gmtCreate":1624875033845,"gmtModify":1633947658508,"author":{"id":"3564622915347576","authorId":"3564622915347576","name":"meowx3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed62fdc20a8546ffe194561acd28b33f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564622915347576","authorIdStr":"3564622915347576"},"htmlText":"Leggo!!","listText":"Leggo!!","text":"Leggo!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150017186","repostId":1163132894,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":127744447,"gmtCreate":1624871560889,"gmtModify":1633947694661,"author":{"id":"3569664437904571","authorId":"3569664437904571","name":"rsu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83c6d60ee50dc6f7f51540297717391b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569664437904571","authorIdStr":"3569664437904571"},"htmlText":"👌&nbsp;","listText":"👌&nbsp;","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127744447","repostId":1163132894,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5153604,"gmtCreate":1625699363048,"gmtModify":1635234764396,"authorId":3570742778586711,"author":{"id":3570742778586711,"idStr":"3570742778586711","authorId":3570742778586711,"name":"firefirefire","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04f323294e537812b906a523831e3c8","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":127744447,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good job.. buy <u>buy</u>","text":"Good job.. buy <u>buy</u>","html":"Good job.. buy <u>buy</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":127727835,"gmtCreate":1624870525327,"gmtModify":1633947709453,"author":{"id":"4087812881643400","authorId":"4087812881643400","name":"Mandaaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087812881643400","authorIdStr":"4087812881643400"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127727835","repostId":1163132894,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":127717116,"gmtCreate":1624868997735,"gmtModify":1631891300352,"author":{"id":"3574975730290141","authorId":"3574975730290141","name":"sasa11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12e058ce6727186880f07f79a7025a0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574975730290141","authorIdStr":"3574975730290141"},"htmlText":"More weakness so tt can enter&nbsp;","listText":"More weakness so tt can enter&nbsp;","text":"More weakness so tt can enter","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127717116","repostId":1163132894,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5093972,"gmtCreate":1625152194367,"gmtModify":1631891300384,"authorId":3575026186751523,"author":{"id":3575026186751523,"idStr":"3575026186751523","authorId":3575026186751523,"name":"me168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842bb1acf5012d1cb565b53b554785d0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":127717116,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[哇塞]","text":"[哇塞]","html":"[哇塞]"},{"id":5062685,"gmtCreate":1624933270746,"gmtModify":1631891300374,"authorId":3581163681857144,"author":{"id":3581163681857144,"idStr":"3581163681857144","authorId":3581163681857144,"name":"Traditional","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21bbe8b2221458a17315a97b552ef2e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":127717116,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"厉害","text":"厉害","html":"厉害"},{"id":5057709,"gmtCreate":1624901902159,"gmtModify":1631891300356,"authorId":3575026186751523,"author":{"id":3575026186751523,"idStr":"3575026186751523","authorId":3575026186751523,"name":"me168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842bb1acf5012d1cb565b53b554785d0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":127717116,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[吃瓜]","text":"[吃瓜]","html":"[吃瓜]"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":51,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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