美联储利率决议的两难困境：加不加息？怎么加？

第一财经2023-03-21

美联储将如何权衡金融稳定与物价稳定。当地时间21日，为期两天的美联储3月货币政策会议将在华盛顿正式拉开帷幕。随着地区性银行暴雷，本次议息会议与以往相比更吸引人们的目光，然而高企的通胀现状和不断累积的经济阴云令联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的政策空间变得捉襟见肘。除了美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会之外，最新经济预测摘要（SEP）中有关加息路径、通胀预期等数据也将成为焦点，市场或将进入巨震模式。银行业...

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精彩评论

葫芦居士
2023-03-21
葫芦居士
之前有人说美联储贴现窗口放贷超历史，等同于加息缩表工作废了一半。此文中相反，说银行危机导致信贷紧缩，相当于加息1.5%。仔细思考资金流向，银行在此时应该是增加流动性以防挤兑，那么势必减少放贷，应该是造成紧缩，与通账控制同向。鉴于此，美联储降通胀的步子可以稍稍慢半拍。所以加息0.25是可信的。将思考写在此处，算是做了一道习题，明天对答案。
- 葫芦居士:
  这题我答对了。
猛逃
2023-03-21
猛逃
邪邪乎乎的[白眼]
龙腾虎乐
2023-03-21
龙腾虎乐
还加个毛，不降都快扛不住了[捂脸] [捂脸]
爱死露露
2023-03-21
爱死露露
那只能让有一点通胀啦，孰轻孰重还是分得清
龙腾虎乐
2023-03-21
龙腾虎乐
只能先救银行，否则会产生社会动荡
Pungi
2023-03-21
Pungi
媒体就是媒体，说起来头头是道，但是啥也做不了，因为从不用自己做decision making

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Erlam）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，考虑到强劲的核心服务通胀数据和紧张的劳动力市场条件，美联储的加息路径原本非常明显。然而，这次的危机将对政策力度的评估产生影响。厄拉姆对美国银行业整体持乐观态度。他认为大型银行机构都必须定期进行“压力测试”，这样可以有效防范硅谷银行发生的情况进一步波及。“目前大型金融机构存款资金来源更为多元化，同时金融危机以来资产负债表更为稳健，抗风险能力也相对更强。但地区性银行给美联储提了醒，需要防范政策效应滞后性对重要部门的影响。”他说。联邦基金利率期货预计3月加息25个基点值得注意的是，市场对衰退的担忧明显升级。与利率预期关联的2年期美债近两周累计下跌101个基点。联邦基金利率期货显示，经历了近一周波动后，市场几乎完成了对明天加息25个基点的定价。与此同时，美联储终端利率节点已经从9月被大幅提前，同时年末降息的预期持续高涨。高盛将未来12个月美国经济衰退的概率提高到35%，纽约联储结合美债收益率曲线模型得到的衰退概率已经超过50%，创上世纪80年代以来新高。Apollo Global Management首席经济学家斯洛克（Torsten Slok）在报告中发出警告，最近银行业的动荡已经在收紧金融状况。“可能相当于美联储基金利率上升了1.5%。换句话说，在过去的一周里，货币状况已经收紧到经济急剧放缓的风险增加的程度。”厄拉姆向第一财经记者表示，鲍威尔在发布会上需要向外界解释的问题是，在肯定银行业韧性的同时，地方性银行风险及扩散压力到底有多大，监管层面的责任和后续计划有哪些，未来是否有更多援助计划等。通胀、利率、经济预期如何变化本次会议上，美联储还将更新季度经济预测摘要（SEP），其中包括对经济、通胀、利率和就业的最新展望。受到银行业风险外溢效应影响，美联储官员的观点可能较3月初出现变化。美联储将物价视为货币政策的重点，因为长期居高不下的通胀对经济和劳动力市场的损害更大。数据显示，自去年年中见顶以来，美国物价正在进一步回落，2月消费者物价指数（CPI）同比增长6%，创2021年9月以来的最低水平。与此同时，通胀预期也在降温，密歇根大学3月消费者1年期通胀预估为3.8%，较2月回落0.3个百分点。厄拉姆认为，不能说通胀的危机已经结束，但物价走势正在朝正确的方向前进，“乐观预期下，随着加息对经济的影响逐步显现，也许在下半年我们就能看到美联储希望看到的趋势性下降的产生。”牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）则持谨慎观点。他向第一财经记者表示，房屋租金和火热的劳动力市场将为通胀提供动能，尽管银行系统压力加剧，美联储将继续提高利率，以冷却经济并降低通胀。鲍威尔将重申不要过早放松政策，通胀目标将坚持到底。此外，美联储对经济的预测将成为外界焦点，这将很可能对就业、利率前景产生联动影响。达拉斯联储数据显示，一季度美国经济增速将达到3.2%。从目前的情况看，尚不能完全评估银行业的影响。关注美联储主席鲍威尔是否将重申对于美国经济可以避免硬着陆的表态。多位美联储官员1月议息会议后的表态中强调了未来政策将取决于数据表现。目前委员会内部中间派及鸽派占据多数，随着经济不确定性的上升，整体政策立场可能会更为温和。PNC financial首席经济学家福彻（Gus Faucher）表示：“对美联储来说，依然需要加息来冷却通胀，但过度收紧可能将经济推入衰退，这是一项棘手的任务，从近期银行倒闭事件看，这项任务变得更加困难。”富国银行预计，年初以来就业市场表现可能会让美联储下修今年失业率预期，消费支出强劲有望提振2023年国内生产总值（GDP）增速展望，不过美联储可能在通胀预期上持谨慎观点，进而在终端利率展望上维持在去年四季度5.1%或更高水平，当然地区性银行风险让最终的数据存在不确定性。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":650514698,"gmtCreate":1679376654314,"gmtModify":1679377324141,"author":{"id":"4130418900468950","authorId":"4130418900468950","name":"葫芦居士","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e311e8dd2492e8e89c69e4090ddd5d5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4130418900468950","authorIdStr":"4130418900468950"},"htmlText":"之前有人说美联储贴现窗口放贷超历史，等同于加息缩表工作废了一半。此文中相反，说银行危机导致信贷紧缩，相当于加息1.5%。仔细思考资金流向，银行在此时应该是增加流动性以防挤兑，那么势必减少放贷，应该是造成紧缩，与通账控制同向。鉴于此，美联储降通胀的步子可以稍稍慢半拍。所以加息0.25是可信的。将思考写在此处，算是做了一道习题，明天对答案。","listText":"之前有人说美联储贴现窗口放贷超历史，等同于加息缩表工作废了一半。此文中相反，说银行危机导致信贷紧缩，相当于加息1.5%。仔细思考资金流向，银行在此时应该是增加流动性以防挤兑，那么势必减少放贷，应该是造成紧缩，与通账控制同向。鉴于此，美联储降通胀的步子可以稍稍慢半拍。所以加息0.25是可信的。将思考写在此处，算是做了一道习题，明天对答案。","text":"之前有人说美联储贴现窗口放贷超历史，等同于加息缩表工作废了一半。此文中相反，说银行危机导致信贷紧缩，相当于加息1.5%。仔细思考资金流向，银行在此时应该是增加流动性以防挤兑，那么势必减少放贷，应该是造成紧缩，与通账控制同向。鉴于此，美联储降通胀的步子可以稍稍慢半拍。所以加息0.25是可信的。将思考写在此处，算是做了一道习题，明天对答案。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650514698","repostId":1162955396,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7912498,"gmtCreate":1679508648312,"gmtModify":1679508652171,"authorId":4130418900468950,"author":{"id":4130418900468950,"idStr":"4130418900468950","authorId":4130418900468950,"name":"葫芦居士","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e311e8dd2492e8e89c69e4090ddd5d5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":650514698,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"这题我答对了。","text":"这题我答对了。","html":"这题我答对了。"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":650515585,"gmtCreate":1679375707547,"gmtModify":1679375710484,"author":{"id":"3518527627041174","authorId":"3518527627041174","name":"猛逃","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3518527627041174","authorIdStr":"3518527627041174"},"htmlText":"邪邪乎乎的[白眼]&nbsp;","listText":"邪邪乎乎的[白眼]&nbsp;","text":"邪邪乎乎的[白眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650515585","repostId":1162955396,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":650515981,"gmtCreate":1679375442443,"gmtModify":1679375444137,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622fc56f7e67b5729addb4e78a195511","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3482550532367433","authorIdStr":"3482550532367433"},"htmlText":"还加个毛，不降都快扛不住了[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"还加个毛，不降都快扛不住了[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"还加个毛，不降都快扛不住了[捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650515981","repostId":1162955396,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":650512735,"gmtCreate":1679375354528,"gmtModify":1679375357037,"author":{"id":"3575264687612244","authorId":"3575264687612244","name":"爱死露露","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575264687612244","authorIdStr":"3575264687612244"},"htmlText":"那只能让有一点通胀啦，孰轻孰重还是分得清","listText":"那只能让有一点通胀啦，孰轻孰重还是分得清","text":"那只能让有一点通胀啦，孰轻孰重还是分得清","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650512735","repostId":1162955396,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":650512197,"gmtCreate":1679375040819,"gmtModify":1679375044517,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622fc56f7e67b5729addb4e78a195511","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3482550532367433","authorIdStr":"3482550532367433"},"htmlText":"只能先救银行，否则会产生社会动荡","listText":"只能先救银行，否则会产生社会动荡","text":"只能先救银行，否则会产生社会动荡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650512197","repostId":1162955396,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":650516269,"gmtCreate":1679373863551,"gmtModify":1679373865550,"author":{"id":"3481417518064215","authorId":"3481417518064215","name":"Pungi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3dcb10ed436cf083313b9f3fc9f7f15","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3481417518064215","authorIdStr":"3481417518064215"},"htmlText":"媒体就是媒体，说起来头头是道，但是啥也做不了，因为从不用自己做decision making","listText":"媒体就是媒体，说起来头头是道，但是啥也做不了，因为从不用自己做decision making","text":"媒体就是媒体，说起来头头是道，但是啥也做不了，因为从不用自己做decision making","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650516269","repostId":1162955396,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":7,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":6,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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