Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets

Bloomberg2021-08-12

A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset...

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精彩评论

JCai
2021-08-15
JCai
M
- JCai:
  k
Chrono
2021-08-13
Chrono
[微笑]
Meshaarias72
2021-08-13
Meshaarias72
Like n comment pls
7134fa9a
2021-08-13
7134fa9a
Like pls
- simivan154:
  Okay
- JeremyKok:
  hi. please like and comment back. thank you.
sseregit
2021-08-13
sseregit
Not today ba, crash
koolgal
2021-08-13
koolgal
Exercise caution but stay invested because of inflation! 🤔
- Kel9670ong:
  Totally agreed
- koolgal:
  Thanks👍😊
- Kel9670ong回复koolgal:
  welcome market is really volatile
- koolgal回复Kel9670ong:
  Agree👍😊
- adonis123:
  Agree

发表看法

420

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Roughly speaking, it’s the gap between the rates of growth in money supply and gross domestic product, an indicator known to eco-geeks as Marshallian K. It just turned negative for the first time since 2018, meaning GDP is rising faster than the government’s M2 account.\nThe shortfall comes from an expanding economy that’s quickly depleting the nation’s available money. The deficit could become a problem for markets at a time when excess liquidity is seen as underpinning rallies in everything from Bitcoin to meme stocks.\n“Put another way, the recovering economy is now drinking from a punch bowl that the stock market once had all to itself,” Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group’s chief investment officer, wrote in a note last week.\nHow big a threat is this? While stocks kept rising during frequent negative Marshallian K readings in the 1990s, the pattern since the 2008 global financial crisis -- a period when the central bank was in what Ramsey calls a “perpetual crisis mode” -- begs for caution.\n\nThe Marshallian K fell below zero in 2010, a year when the S&P 500 Index suffered a 16% correction. A similar dip in 2018 portended a selloff that almost killed that bull market.\nThe Leuthold study is the latest attempt to handicap the market’s outlook from the perspective of liquidity. But not everyone is worried. Ed Yardeni, the president and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., says he prefers to plot not the growth rates but the absolute level of M2 against GDP to measure liquidity. Based on that, liquidity stood near a record high.\n“Some people start to freak out about the M2 growth rate,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV and Radio. “What they don’t really appreciate is M2 today is $5 trillion higher than it was before the pandemic. There is just a tremendous liquidity sitting there.”\nOthers see limited impact from Fed tapering on the equity market. In June,researchfrom UBS Group AG showed that should the Fed turn off the spigot on its annual $1.4 trillion in quantitative-easing spending, the hit to the S&P 500 would be a paltry 3% decline in prices.\nIn 2013, when the Fed’s announcement on a reduction in stimulus sparked ataper tantrumthat sent 10-year Treasury yields skyward, the S&P 500 pulled back almost 6% from its May peak that year. But stocks staged a full recovery within weeks and went on with a rally that eventually lifted the index 30% for the whole year.\nSkeptics, however, are quick to point out one big difference: equity valuations.\n“Back then, the stock market was trading at 15 times earnings. Now it’s 22 times earnings,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg TV with Caroline Hyde. “It will be hard for the market to ignore it this time around.”\n\nFor now, a liquidity drain suggested by the Marshallian K data has done little damage to the market, at least on the index level. The S&P 500 is poised for a seventh straight monthly gain, reaching all-time highs almost every week.\nBut Ramsey warns investors shouldn’t let their guard down. While the broad market has been strong -- the S&P 500 closed Wednesday at a record for the 46th time this year -- fewer stocks are participating in the latest leg up. This could be blamed on falling liquidity, he says, and the days of abundant cash floating all stocks are likely gone.\nThe Marshallian K indicator just slumped intonegative territoryfaster than ever. During the second quarter, M2 money expanded 12.7% from a year ago, trailing the nominal GDP growth rate of 16.7%. That came after four quarters of excessive liquidity where the spread stayed above 20 percentage points.\n“The Marshallian K now shows liquidity not only deteriorating but actually contracting -- and at a time when hopes (as embedded in valuations) have never been higher,” Ramsey said. “If the Fed can drawdown QE in the next year without triggering a decline of those levels, it will truly have achieved something remarkable. But we’d rather invest based on the probable.”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":897718783,"gmtCreate":1628986450142,"gmtModify":1633688221292,"author":{"id":"3574897713454581","authorId":"3574897713454581","name":"JCai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4408059854d4abfa5d3e8513d447a16","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574897713454581","authorIdStr":"3574897713454581"},"htmlText":"M","listText":"M","text":"M","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897718783","repostId":1162909242,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5529959,"gmtCreate":1628986465506,"gmtModify":1631896500048,"authorId":3574897713454581,"author":{"id":3574897713454581,"idStr":"3574897713454581","authorId":3574897713454581,"name":"JCai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4408059854d4abfa5d3e8513d447a16","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":897718783,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>k</u>","text":"<u>k</u>","html":"<u>k</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":897062047,"gmtCreate":1628863564989,"gmtModify":1631888998109,"author":{"id":"3576878638522885","authorId":"3576878638522885","name":"Chrono","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79f746a4dc41ef35ab2b3f25a0886a49","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576878638522885","authorIdStr":"3576878638522885"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897062047","repostId":1162909242,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":894778282,"gmtCreate":1628860994946,"gmtModify":1633688945622,"author":{"id":"3577781617271173","authorId":"3577781617271173","name":"Meshaarias72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5282cda6a9d3948fc067b21adcb578c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577781617271173","authorIdStr":"3577781617271173"},"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894778282","repostId":1162909242,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894525532,"gmtCreate":1628841774426,"gmtModify":1633689066852,"author":{"id":"3582423245170611","authorId":"3582423245170611","name":"7134fa9a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582423245170611","authorIdStr":"3582423245170611"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894525532","repostId":1162909242,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5516967,"gmtCreate":1628852384839,"gmtModify":1635152482750,"authorId":3576308035119524,"author":{"id":3576308035119524,"idStr":"3576308035119524","authorId":3576308035119524,"name":"simivan154","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894525532,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Okay","text":"Okay","html":"Okay"},{"id":5521504,"gmtCreate":1628894801903,"gmtModify":1635152181713,"authorId":3567307840510045,"author":{"id":3567307840510045,"idStr":"3567307840510045","authorId":3567307840510045,"name":"JeremyKok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b03a485f83b6b2615fad8ac9b87bf4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894525532,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you.","text":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you.","html":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894265823,"gmtCreate":1628830640562,"gmtModify":1633689126639,"author":{"id":"4089702876678730","authorId":"4089702876678730","name":"sseregit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/709c009663308448b5b4073818d36e48","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089702876678730","authorIdStr":"4089702876678730"},"htmlText":"Not today ba, crash","listText":"Not today ba, crash","text":"Not today ba, crash","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894265823","repostId":1162909242,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":894212499,"gmtCreate":1628828670511,"gmtModify":1628862477443,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorIdStr":"3559581955535845"},"htmlText":"Exercise caution but stay invested because of inflation! 🤔","listText":"Exercise caution but stay invested because of inflation! 🤔","text":"Exercise caution but stay invested because of inflation! 🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894212499","repostId":1162909242,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5514625,"gmtCreate":1628831998095,"gmtModify":1635152638037,"authorId":3578468158955348,"author":{"id":3578468158955348,"idStr":"3578468158955348","authorId":3578468158955348,"name":"Kel9670ong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd86c42e207fbd94e7f8877a29457d71","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894212499,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Totally <u>agreed</u>","text":"Totally <u>agreed</u>","html":"Totally <u>agreed</u>"},{"id":5514630,"gmtCreate":1628832051260,"gmtModify":1635152637493,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894212499,"type":1,"supId":5514625,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks👍😊","text":"Thanks👍😊","html":"Thanks👍😊"},{"id":5514639,"gmtCreate":1628832114705,"gmtModify":1635152636755,"authorId":3578468158955348,"author":{"id":3578468158955348,"idStr":"3578468158955348","authorId":3578468158955348,"name":"Kel9670ong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd86c42e207fbd94e7f8877a29457d71","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3559581955535845,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":894212499,"type":1,"supId":5514625,"prevId":5514630,"content":"welcome market is really volatile","text":"welcome market is really volatile","html":"welcome market is really volatile"},{"id":5514663,"gmtCreate":1628832306762,"gmtModify":1635152634367,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3578468158955348,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3578468158955348,"idStr":"3578468158955348","authorId":3578468158955348,"name":"Kel9670ong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd86c42e207fbd94e7f8877a29457d71","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":894212499,"type":1,"supId":5514625,"prevId":5514639,"content":"Agree👍😊","text":"Agree👍😊","html":"Agree👍😊"},{"id":5515294,"gmtCreate":1628837619419,"gmtModify":1635152587223,"authorId":4087116753605820,"author":{"id":4087116753605820,"idStr":"4087116753605820","authorId":4087116753605820,"name":"adonis123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":894212499,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Agree</u>","text":"<u>Agree</u>","html":"<u>Agree</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":420,"commentSize":57,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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