弹尽粮绝？美联储的弹药还能往哪里打

金十数据2020-09-25

看似弹尽粮绝的美联储，接下来还能做什么？市场似乎还没从上周美联储利率决议中缓过神来，这从美股市场依然不温不火中可见一斑，回顾近期鲍威尔的讲话，我们发现格林斯潘式的语言艺术，似乎已经被鲍威尔运用到炉火纯青的地步了。但面对美联储如此捉摸不定的言词，我们依然可以从中发现一些蛛丝马迹，到底美联储的政策基调发生了哪些改变，以及美联储接下来的弹药该怎么打才能精准射中目标，接下来我们一一为您揭晓。美联储的政策...

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精彩评论

神经蛙_3476
2020-09-28
神经蛙_3476
一个印刷厂会因为印了几万本书，就“弹尽粮绝”印不了书了吗？一个印刷厂老板会因为千里之外一个农民，饭后与隔壁农民聊起自己的印刷厂，担心自己印太多书没人看，就停止印刷吗？
惠一
2020-09-26
惠一
阅
- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
稳之道
2020-09-26
稳之道
早该绝了
蘇格抄底
2020-09-25
蘇格抄底
来瓶茅台牌二锅头还能更嗨
猛逃
2020-09-25
猛逃
真扯🥚，老美的经济问题来自于🦠，疫情一过经济立马腾起，还什么弹尽粮绝云云⋯
程思遥
2020-09-25
程思遥
、@,
- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引

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go?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d9c4a2c4e8bd147f4455ec48f28db4d","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9},"content_text":"看似弹尽粮绝的美联储，接下来还能做什么？市场似乎还没从上周美联储利率决议中缓过神来，这从美股市场依然不温不火中可见一斑，回顾近期鲍威尔的讲话，我们发现格林斯潘式的语言艺术，似乎已经被鲍威尔运用到炉火纯青的地步了。但面对美联储如此捉摸不定的言词，我们依然可以从中发现一些蛛丝马迹，到底美联储的政策基调发生了哪些改变，以及美联储接下来的弹药该怎么打才能精准射中目标，接下来我们一一为您揭晓。美联储的政策基调发生了哪些改变？市场高度关注美联储的动向，重点无非有二，首先是美联储是否会继续执行量化宽松政策，加大资产购买力度；其次是美联储对未来利率的前瞻性指引是否符合市场预期。在上周美联储公布利率决议之前，美股的回调一度令市场对美联储将加大资产购买力度的希望升温，同时，市场也希望得到美联储进一步的政策指引。但美联储的表现令投资者大失所望，美联储既没有告诉市场将如何调整其资产负债表，也没有提供进一步的政策指引。而在本周，美联储主席鲍威尔在众议院金融服务委员会上作证词陈述中，对于前瞻性指引的表述更是模糊不清，看似洋洋洒洒说了一堆，其实什么都没说。对于重点问题，比如如何定义充分就业、容许通胀达标多久，他的回答不是在绕圈子就是在打太极。在其他场合，美联储官员近期的表述也是耐人寻味。本周，美联储主席鲍威尔表示：“货币和财政政策共同起作用，复苏会加速。帮助受疫情打击的人群的援助措施，应该由白宫和国会来解决，而不是美联储，但美联储会尽可能与各方进行合作。”同时，美联储官员罗森格伦也表示，与调整债券购买计划相比，财政政策对经济的帮助更大，更多的财政行动将为经济带来更大的好处。如果我们留意，近日大概有十几位美联储官员都在强调，美联储已经尽其所能，接下来能做的似乎只有长期维持低利率，而美国经济复苏亟待财政政策的提振。总结来看，美联储当前似乎已经厌倦了扮演超级英雄的角色，对于此前承诺的无限量开启量化宽松，美联储似乎不愿再承诺采取更多的行动，并且有意淡化了对前瞻性指引的表述。美联储的弹药还能往哪里打？今年3月疫情最严重的时期，市场动荡使美联储开启了无限量化宽松，在短短三个月内，美联储的资产规模就接近了08年次贷危机后四轮量化宽松政策的总规模，这也引发了市场质疑：美联储可能一次性将弹药全部打完了。同时，美联储近期一再强调，经济复苏的重点应该放在财政政策而不是货币政策上，有将焦点转移到财政政策上的嫌疑，但这是否意味着美联储的弹药已经全部打完，不能再进一步支持经济复苏了呢？对此，PIMCO基金指出美联储还是有一定的政策空间，美联储依然可以通过资产购买来支持经济复苏，其表示：“美联储不论是继续购买美国国债和还是MBS，都可以继续和财政政策互补，帮助美联储自身实现价格稳定和充分就业的双重目标。”具体来看，PIMCO基金指出，购买MBS可能比购买国债的效果更好：“如果美联储在不购买MBS的情况下购买美国国债，那么美国国债利率可能会保持较低水平，但这对抵押贷款利率的下降可能收效甚微，并且在大多数情况下，美国国债利率的下降并没有传递给房主。“PIMCO基金还强调：“若美联储购买MBS，则可以有效降低抵押贷款利率，这会大大加快降低抵押贷款利率的时间表。”首先，从实操层面来看，美联储确实可以通过购买MBS从而降低抵押贷款利率。如下图所示，30年期抵押贷款利率与10年期国债利率间的利差依然处于高位，还有很大的修正空间。其次，降低抵押贷款利率的好处也是显而易见的，因为其不止可以提高再融资水平，同时，如下图所示，在获得抵押贷款的情况下，购房可以做到比租房更划算，这会使数以百万计的人能够从中获益，无疑是安抚民众的一剂强心针。综上来看，面对美国经济复苏这个浩大的工程，看似无计可施的美联储，实则还远远未到穷途末路，这对于市场来讲似乎是乐观的，但究竟美联储是如何打算的，还真叫人有种雾里看花的感觉。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":974523942,"gmtCreate":1601250264686,"gmtModify":1703823718666,"author":{"id":"3539078675715636","authorId":"3539078675715636","name":"神经蛙_3476","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c963e96846dea54f94432ace1aa862","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3539078675715636","authorIdStr":"3539078675715636"},"htmlText":"一个印刷厂会因为印了几万本书，就“弹尽粮绝”印不了书了吗？一个印刷厂老板会因为千里之外一个农民，饭后与隔壁农民聊起自己的印刷厂，担心自己印太多书没人看，就停止印刷吗？","listText":"一个印刷厂会因为印了几万本书，就“弹尽粮绝”印不了书了吗？一个印刷厂老板会因为千里之外一个农民，饭后与隔壁农民聊起自己的印刷厂，担心自己印太多书没人看，就停止印刷吗？","text":"一个印刷厂会因为印了几万本书，就“弹尽粮绝”印不了书了吗？一个印刷厂老板会因为千里之外一个农民，饭后与隔壁农民聊起自己的印刷厂，担心自己印太多书没人看，就停止印刷吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/974523942","repostId":1161768061,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":974222744,"gmtCreate":1601113474088,"gmtModify":1703823587520,"author":{"id":"3561597595799937","authorId":"3561597595799937","name":"惠一","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561597595799937","authorIdStr":"3561597595799937"},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/974222744","repostId":1161768061,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2892896,"gmtCreate":1601113857864,"gmtModify":1601113857864,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":974222744,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a 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