Dollar Consensus Splinters as Investors Clash on U.S. Recovery

Bloomberg2021-04-26

Greenback has retreated to test this year’s surprise uptrend PineBridge sees risks of dollar strength, JPMorgan bearish The most popular currency trade at the beginning of the year has splintered as ...

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JoeYouToHUAT
2021-04-26
JoeYouToHUAT
[惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶]
Ivylow
2021-04-26
Ivylow
👍
LEOLIMSF
2021-04-26
LEOLIMSF
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ShuJie
2021-04-26
ShuJie
Read more!
albert77
2021-04-26
albert77
Nice go
claratan
2021-04-26
claratan
Hi 👋
- Nobi:
  Hey Clara 👋

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Rowe Price see the dollar weakening as U.S. economic exceptionalism wanes, while PineBridge Investments expects it to strengthen. Currencies from the euro to the Brazilian real -- which suffered in the first quarter -- have attempted rallies this month leaving the greenback sitting at a closely-watched technical crossroads.\n“You have that idiosyncratic U.S. rates outperformance story being offset by the global cyclical upswing and by expensive valuations on the dollar,” said Ian Samson, amulti-asset fund manager at Fidelity International in Hong Kong, who is long the currency against the euro. “We see significant crosswinds blowing the dollar in different directions.”\n\nWhile most on Wall Street called for a weaker dollar in January, the world’s reserve currency went on a run that left speculative fundsscramblingto cover $30 billion of net short positions as Treasury yields climbed and expectations of rate hikes were brought forward. That trade soured this month, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipping almost 2%. This week’s policy assessment by the Federal Reserve, which has held firm against hawkish expectations, could lend weight to bears.\nAt the crux of dollar forecasts is expectations for the pace of recovery in the world’s biggest economy.\nU.S. Edge\nAs the world strives to break free from the bruising economic effect of coronavirus restrictions, the U.S. has inoculated more citizens than any other country, giving it an edge in the race to re-open. Coupled with the Biden administration’smulti-trillion dollar fiscal stimulus and a Fed that’s allowing inflation to overshoot, it’s spurring the likes of PineBridge Investments to predict more dollar gains.\n“U.S. Treasury yields could see another leg higher once we see some inflation come back,” with their premium over peers supporting the dollar, said Omar Slim, portfolio manager at PineBridge in Singapore. “Our view is that the dollar will retain a strengthening bias this year.”\nTen-year U.S. yields surged more than 80 basis points this year to 1.77% in March, the highest since before the pandemic. While the benchmark has retreated to 1.56% on Friday, it remains well above this year’s low of around 0.90%.\n\n“Positive U.S. data might very easily kick-start a dollar rally again,” wrote Commerzbank AG currency strategist Thu Lan Nguyen in a note last week. “So for now U.S. dollar bears should make sure that they don’t get excited too soon.”\nCatching Up\nBut not everyone is convinced the U.S. will continue outpacing peers.\nThushka Maharaj, JPMorgan Asset Management\nFor JPMorgan Asset’s Thushka Maharaj, its exceptionalism is set to fade as other nations catch-up on vaccine roll-outs and economic re-openings in the second half of the year.\nThe London-based strategist is keeping tabs on developed markets like Europe, the U.K. and Japan, and sees the euro outperforming the dollar in the medium term. “We are expecting the rebound in these economies to mirror what we are seeing in the U.S. right now,” she said.\nSigns abound this trend is underway.\nCoronaviruses cases are rising in all regions except Europe, the World Health Organization said on Tuesday. The European Union is unleashing a new immunization drive to cover the bulk of its population within a few months, while on the economic front, recent PMI data have beaten expectations.\nThe euro has climbed about 3% from a four-month low in March, and broke through the key $1.20 level last week.\n\nSome favor other currencies to best the greenback. T. Rowe’s Thomas Poullaouec sees more gains for Australia’s risk-sensitive dollar as China’s economy rebounds from the pandemic and demand for commodities rise.\nAberdeen Standard Investments’ Edwin Gutierrez is watching for opportunities to boost exposure to riskier developing currencies as “the rest of the world catches up on the vaccine roll-out.”\nThe Brazilian real, Indian rupee and Colombian peso -- which have been pummeled as the coronavirus raged across those countries -- stand out for the head of emerging-market sovereign debt in London.\nSubstantially Overvalued\nIn the meantime, vocal bears continue to warn about long-term headwinds for the dollar.\n“Beyond the near term, we continue to see a structurally negative outlook for the U.S. currency,” wrote Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists including Zach Pandl in a note Tuesday. “The dollar is still substantially overvalued.”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":374032750,"gmtCreate":1619401105570,"gmtModify":1634273785710,"author":{"id":"3575891628819900","authorId":"3575891628819900","name":"JoeYouToHUAT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575891628819900","authorIdStr":"3575891628819900"},"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶] [惊讶] 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